While the NHL playoffs have included some surprises in the Eastern Conference courtesy of the Florida Panthers, the Western Conference final features a pair of clubs that each won two series where they had home-ice advantage.
Even if you expected the Colorado Avalanche to be here, this is far from a shocking result. The Dallas Stars are a star-studded group, with five players who scored at least 70 points this season on the roster — and a stud in Jake Oettinger defending the crease.
The Vegas Golden Knights possess one of the deepest rosters in the NHL, and the return of captain Mark Stone has them looking more dangerous than they did at the end of the regular season.
If anyone tells you they know how this one will play out they’re delusional or dishonest. Whatever happens, it’s likely to be a heck of a series, though.
Here’s a rundown of what to expect from the Western Conference final:
What have you done for me lately?
Both teams have done well to get this far, but the Golden Knights are coming off a more impressive series.
Vegas handled Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the Edmonton Oilers in six games, while the plucky Seattle Kraken took Dallas to seven.
The biggest difference between how these clubs have performed in the postseason has been on special teams. The Stars’ power play has been way more effective (31.7%) than Vegas’s unit (17.5%) and they’ve killed penalties at a more impressive clip (83.3%) than the Golden Knights (60.0%) as well.
The second number there is a bit skewed by the fact Vegas had to deal with Edmonton’s outrageously effective power play, but it’s still safe to say Dallas is riding a strong wave of special teams play while Vegas has relied on winning at even strength.
The Stars will win if…
Oettinger can give them an edge in the crease. That sounds reductive, but it’s tough to differentiate between two deep teams that finished three points apart during the regular season.
On paper, the biggest talent gap between the Stars and Golden Knights appears to be in goal. Oettinger is a true-blue star while Adin Hill has less than 100 NHL starts under his belt.
Unfortunately for Dallas, the current reality isn’t as simple as that. Hill has produced a .934 save percentage since returning from a lower-body injury in Game 2 of the second round and Oettinger is coming off an ugly series against the Kraken.
Unless Oettinger is dealing with an injury, the smart money is on the elite goaltender coming around. He’ll need to be much better against Vegas than he was versus Seattle for Dallas to advance.
The Golden Knights will win if…
They keep getting the best chances at 5-on-5.
While the Golden Knights’ power play is pedestrian, they’ve outscored opponents 30-15 at 5-on-5 during the playoffs. That level of dominance will be tough to maintain, but this squad is good at creating quality looks.
In the postseason, Vegas has created 20 more high-danger shots and 13 more high-danger goals than its opposition with the ice level. When the referees are swallowing their whistles, this is the group to trust.
The Golden Knights don’t create overwhelming shot differentials like the Carolina Hurricanes, for instance, but the quality over quantity approach has worked well for them in the postseason.
Likely series hero
As long as Stone is healthy, he’s got a strong chance to be the most consistently impactful player in the series at both ends of the ice.
The Golden Knights captain weathered some questionable hits at the hands of the Oilers, but he’s had a few days to rest up for this series and should be ready for a standout performance.
Despite returning from a back injury after a multi-month absence, Stone has been performing to his standards in the playoffs. He’s generated point-per-game production while playing strong defense and skating nearly 20 minutes a night.
His contributions in this series might not end up being the flashiest, but when it’s all said and done, he will have made his mark.
Unsung hero candidate
Although Evgenii Dadonov is a couple years past his prime, he still has plenty to offer. The 33-year-old winger has been productive skating alongside Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn with nine points in the playoffs.
He’s also thrown the body around more than usual with 19 hits in 13 games after averaging less than half a hit per game during the regular season.
Despite his wealth of professional experience, he had just four NHL playoff games under his belt prior to 2022-23. His crafty playmaking hasn’t dried up under the spotlight, though.
He’ll have a chance to do some damage against a Vegas team that unceremoniously shipped him to Montreal after a 20-goal campaign during the offseason after a failed trade to the Anaheim Ducks.
Prediction
Stars in seven.
