Craig Berube will make his return to St. Louis as the Leafs look to avenge an ugly 5-1 loss last month, in what was arguably their worst game of the season.
Since winning in Toronto, the Blues are 0-3 and have been outscored 15-4. They are heavy underdogs in this matchup
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Maple Leafs vs Blues Odds
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -105
- Blues Moneyline Odds: -115
- Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-250), Blues +1.5 (+205)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -115, under -105)
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs enter off of a convincing win over the Kraken, in which they held Seattle to just 25 shots on goal and five high danger chances in even strength play. Over the last two games they have outshot the Jets and Kraken by 18, and outside of a third period blip on Monday have looked quite convincing.
Craig Berube has received tremendous play from the Leafs newly formed second line of John Tavares, Max Pacioretty and William Nylander. They have combined for 14 points over the last two games, and have played to an 88% expected goal share in a small sample of 23.7 minutes together at even strength.
Based on today’s morning skate, the Leafs look like they will keep the top two lines the same in this matchup, which is no surprise. Nick Robertson looks to be coming out of the lineup in favour of Ryan Reaves, and Pontus Holmberg has been elevated to the third line as a result.
Joseph Woll has been confirmed as the Leafs starter, as the team will presumptively start Anthony Stolarz tomorrow night in Minnesota. Woll has played to a .902 save % and -1.6 GSAx in two appearances this season.
St. Louis Blues
Best Bets for Leafs vs. Blues
The Blues did a great job of capitalizing on the Leafs mistakes the last time these sides faced-off, but it was pretty clear that Toronto did not play well in that game. The Leafs should be able to carry far more of the play in this matchup, and if they can manage the puck more effectively in the key areas of the ice it should lead to a better result.
Fading Binnington and the Blues at this kind of a number is not always fun, because they do seem fairly well versed in keeping games closer than they look to be.
The Blues are creating very few high danger chances right now, and feature a fairly thin offensive core. With Thomas sidelined their offensive upside is pretty limited, and this is a good matchup for Toronto to build on its strong defensive performance versus the Kraken. At -115 I see value betting the Blues team total to come in under 2.5 goals.
I’m also interested in backing the Leafs new look second line in some fashion, which has been incredible in their first two matchups together. I’m happy with a price of -115 for Nylander to record over 3.5 shots on goal, and wouldn’t argue with any prop involving a strong offensive showing from that trio.
Best Bets: St. Louis Blues Under 2.5 Goals -115 (Sports Interaction), William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal -115
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