After a rough November health-wise for the Maple Leafs it feels as if things are getting ready to improve. Even if Max Pacioretty remains week-to-week and Calle Jarnkrok is month-to-month, the imminent return of Auston Matthews is exactly what the doctor ordered. And while the Leafs have been getting a lot of help by bringing in new players to take roles at the bottom of the lineup card, adding someone who will push people down the depth chart is a huge plus.
Matthews’ return also allows the Leafs to explore some new opportunities. Mitch Marner has demonstrated that he can thrive without Matthews and with John Tavares also playing some great hockey as of late, that seems like a duo worth keeping together. (If you put much stock in Goals Above Replacement, there is a definite case for Tavares and Marner together as Tavares is near the top of the league at the moment.)
During Marner’s injury late last season, Matthews kept things going with Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi, and with the way that Matthew Knies is playing, he should comfortably fill Bertuzzi’s shoes and keep up the strong results that he’s been enjoying on Matthews’ line this season.
That brings us to the player who has been most consistent offensively for the Leafs this season and the one that is going to be tasked with turning the Leafs third line into something, William Nylander.
While plenty has been said about Nylander’s success this year, there is certainly room to touch on how strong the start has been. He’s near the top of the league in goals with 13 goals in 20 games, putting him on pace for surpassing 50 for the first time in his career. He’s also on pace for 90 points, and he continues to be the Leafs’ premiere puck carrier and leader in zone entries. Nylander certainly dominates when you give him strong offensive players to work with, but in a season with a reduced quality of teammates, he is still one of the top offensive players in the league this season.
Nylander without Tavares, Matthews, or Marner (at 5v5):
| CF/60 | 55.76 |
| CF% | 43.64 |
| GF/60 | 3.72 |
| GF% | 53.33 |
| xGF/60 | 2.67 |
| xGF% | 47.80 |
Pretty much as soon as Auston Matthews was out injured, the responsibility of being the solo act out of the Leafs core four forwards emerged and in that time Nylander has put up four goals and nine points in seven games. The qualifier to those numbers being that seven out of nine of those points came on the power play when Nylander was reunited with his core four peers. An additional qualifier might be that after Marner, Tavares, and McMann, Nylander did still have the next highest 5v5 point total, and 50% of the Leafs offence came from the powerplay.
Nylander’s performance while Matthews has been out also includes a spike in ice time, playing just behind Mitch Marner for most minutes by a Leafs forward. Nylander has also led the team in shots, and power play goals. The usage of his zone entries with the man advantage has been a critical part of turning the powerplay around.
WILLIAM NYLANDER 🚨
END-TO-END POWER PLAY GOAL! pic.twitter.com/sVjdkoheyE
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) November 10, 2024
This wouldn’t be the first time this year that the Leafs would be exploring Nylander away from Tavares and Matthews. Nylander began the year on Max Domi’s line while John Tavares attempted to hold down a line of his own as well. The results worked out better for Nylander from an output perspective, but the Domi/Nylander combination didn’t work on a 200-ft level. Tavares’ line had better on-ice differentials, but Tavares struggled offensively. I’d argue a couple of the takeaways should be that Domi really only works with Auston Matthews and that Nylander needs someone who can help prop up his lack of defensive zone awareness.
That’s where things could be different this go around for Nylander. Both Pontus Holmberg and Fraser Minten have the ability to be “that guy” who makes up for William Nylander defensively, while both are still capable offensively enough that they can riff on Nylander’s drives to the net and help support him somewhat offensively. Minten getting the support of being able to play with a top offensive talent and tap into that aspect of his game and play in a greater variety of situations would be a huge benefit for the Leafs’ prospect and one that it wouldn’t be surprising to see Craig Berube tap into.
Of course, there is now the other option that has the potential to engage William in driving his own line, and that is pairing him with his brother. Now that Alex is officially in the fold for the Leafs and has been doing his best at the AHL level to show his time in Columbus wasn’t a fluke, the two Nylanders teaming up together is certainly something they would like to make work as well as offers the Leafs yet another low risk/high reward alternative for their third line.
When Nylander signed his contract there would were legitimate worries that not only in the future would he have trouble living up to the deal, but in the early years of the deal as well. And while Nylander has shown that the past couple of seasons are very much the player he is, Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs have asked for more from William, and it seems very clear that aspect is success away from the Leafs other top talent. Don’t be surprised if Craig Berube leans into this more in the coming weeks and don’t be surprised if William Nylander rises to the challenge.
Data from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and NHL.com
