It has been nearly a month since it was initially reported that the Toronto Maple Leafs had signed towering defenceman Jani Hakanpaa but the deal has yet to be made official.
Much of it has to do with concerns about the status of his “degenerative knee” and whether the ailment will heal enough to allow him to continue his NHL career. Although the Leafs’ medical staff approved the team’s pursuit of Hakanpaa despite these worries and Brad Treliving even commented on the Finnish blueliner, the likelihood of the signing being finalized decreases with each passing day without an announcement. It leaves one to wonder if they should cut their losses now before they run into a similar situation to what they experienced with John Klingberg.
Of course, it is still entirely possible that this deal can be completed in the end and the peculiarity of the long wait for the signing to become official can fade into obscurity. But the Leafs should not place all their eggs in one basket and look into alternatives as a Hakanpaa replacement because it seems more likely than not that this deal will fall through.
That means they will have to look into signing a RHD who has good size and can play more of a defensive style of game for the bottom pair. Unfortunately for Treliving and company, there are only eight UFAs left that are considered to be RHD and the most notable name of the bunch is former Leaf Tyson Barrie so it is very much slim pickings for the league.
Despite the severely limited options, there is a young defenceman in Gustav Lindstrom who has the potential to be a diamond in the rough signing.
Son premier avec les Canadiens!
No. 1️⃣ as a Hab!#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/TNhSweR6HA
— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) November 15, 2023
The 25-year-old blueliner is coming off quite a turbulent season where he bounced between three teams within a span of five months. After being one of the pieces surrendered in the Jeff Petry trade with the Red Wings, the Canadiens had Lindstrom up on the roster for the early portions of the campaign before he was claimed off waivers by Anaheim in early January. Throughout all of that moving, he was able to post a combined 10 points (three goals and seven assists) in 46 games played with six of his assists being primary. Despite this and the Ducks’ lack of depth on the right side defence, they decided not to tender him a qualifying offer and he has been sitting in free agency ever since.
It was an odd choice for them to cut bait on him as despite not being a regular in the lineup, Lindstrom was a steady force on the third pairing and was able to win his minutes at 5v5. He was one of only six players on Anaheim’s roster with a positive +/- with his +12 being behind only Radko Gudas. While +/- is a flawed stat, the fact that he was able to tread above water on a Ducks team that has been among the worst in the league for several years is an encouraging sign for Lindstrom. He also demonstrated a willingness to do the dirty work as he laid 54 hits and 40 blocks with the Ducks, which averaged out over a full season would have had him finish sixth in hits and tied for fifth in blocks on the Leafs.
Lindstrom has reliable fundamentals in the defensive zone as he can fend off the pressure and move the pick out well to start the breakout. Additionally, he has strong gap control as he consistently remains in close range of his assignment both defensively and against the rush with an active stick. For a defensive defenceman, he is pretty active in the offensive zone and likes to jump into the play to either set up a scoring chance or fire a shot in close range. He has the overall package that Craig Berube would want from his defence and still has some upside that the Leafs can help him round out his game into of a third-pairing two-way blueliner.
As it stands right now, Lindstrom is not a flashy player but plays a steady game that won’t harm his team’s performance and is unafraid to play physically and contribute to the play if needed. That is how one would describe Hakanpaa’s game so to find one who is younger, would come in cheaper, and has room for growth is a smart bet. Of course, he is significantly smaller than Hakanpaa (6’2″ and 194 pounds compared to 6’7″ and 222 pounds, respectively) but Lindstrom has the fundamentals to be of a similar ilk in the right situation.
When looking at his underlying numbers at 5v5 while with the Ducks, they are about what you would expect for a defenceman on the third-worst team in the NHL.
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CF%
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FF%
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SF%
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GF%
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XGF%
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SCF%
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HDCF%
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HDGF%
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PDO
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44.73
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45.49
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46.13
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67.65
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46.60
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45.12
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47.20
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65.22
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1.073
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These are not world-beater numbers by any means, but they are respectable given the situation he found himself in. His xGF% was good enough for third among Ducks defenders while he was the leader in both HDCF% and HDGF%. A good point of reference over how much better his underlying numbers would have been on a competitive team is comparing him to Ilya Lyubushkin. His numbers were worse in every category when compared to the Ostervala native, yet the form saw a drastic improvement when he was traded to the Leafs. This means it is certainly doable for Lindstrom to get to around 50% or higher in all of those categories on a team like the Leafs.
Lindstrom is a young Ducks defenceman who was not given a QO and has the tools to be a reliable NHLer who just needs to right opportunity to prove a point. That sounds an awful lot like the situation Simon Benoit found himself in last summer and we know how well it ended up working out for the Leafs. He and Lyubushkin are proof that Toronto can find value in a defenceman on the Ducks who comes in with rough underlying numbers but goes on to impress in a better system. This means there is a precedent that something similar could happen to Lindstrom even if he gets fewer ATOI than the two aforementioned blueliners. That is not to say it will play out the same way it did for Benoit, but Lindstrom could certainly provide some value as a sixth/seventh defender.
AFPAnalytics projects that he could sign a one-year deal with an AAV of roughly $997K, but there is a good chance that he would accept a contract closer to the league minimum of $775K since Lindstrom missed out on the initial window of free agent frenzy. It is also possible that he opts to take a PTO instead to work his way into earning a permanent contract. Regardless of how he gets that deal secured, he would be an RFA by year’s end so the Leafs would be able to gain some control for another season until he is permanently eligible to become a UFA in 2026.
This has the makings of a low-risk-high-reward signing that could be a solid fallback option should Hakanpaa fail his medical. Lindstrom plays a steady game, plays physically, has room for continued growth, and is a coveted RHD that would be a godsend to add another one into the system. He was able to post respectable underlying numbers given the circumstances and showed flashes of some additional offensive elements that can be unearthed in his game. Given that he was let go by the Ducks, this could end up having a similar positive outcome for the Leafs to the way things went for Benoit last season.
Even if Hakanppa is eligible to play, the Leafs should still take a chance on Lindstrom because he would better suit the style of hockey Berube will want from his team while also being put in a position to succeed as he won’t be thrown to the wolves. They can send him to the Marlies if it doesn’t materialize or they could find themselves a useful depth piece with some upside, so there is no harm in giving Lindstrom a chance.
