Now that the Toronto Maple Leafs have hit 20 games and more or less reached the quarter mark of the season, it is a good opportunity to establish a narrative around their 12-8-2 record. There are plenty of caveats that will be applied to those numbers, like a lengthy absence from Auston Matthews (which yielded more favourable results somehow), and certainly, the learning curve under a new coach and new system is something that would be impactful as well, although many people will push the narrative of the new coach bounce being a thing, and if the Leafs record is reflecting that, what happens when the bounce wears off might be a problem. Anyway, with a .650 points percentage to start the season, the Leafs are very much in line with what they’ve done previously in the Auston Matthews era, but the best start since 2021-22.
Matthews era first quarter results:
2023-24: 11-6-3 (.625)
2022-23: 10-5-5 (.625)
2021-22: 13-6-1 (.675)
2020-21: 14-4-2 (.750)
2019-20: 9-7-4 (.550)
2018-19: 14-6-0 (.700)
2017-18: 13-7-0 (.650)
2016-17: 8-8-4 (.500)
The Leafs this season are very much in the middle of the road and very much where they’ve been around for the past couple of seasons. There is no need for panic nor parade planning, as fans have seen this show before. There isn’t really a good comparison for how Craig Berube is doing compared to other recent coaching changes as Keefe came in mid-season after Babcock’s .550 start in 2019-20, and then Keefe’s first full season behind the bench saw him with the hottest start the Leafs have had during the Matthews era but was played entirely in the North Division.
Babcock’s start with the Leafs came pre-Matthews, and even with the start of the Matthews era which included Marner and Nylander also joining the lineup full-time, that was a very different situation to coach in than with that group having experience in the league.
In those previous eight seasons, four times the Leafs saw their points percentage improve over the course of the season, twice it stayed around the same, and twice it got worse. Not surprisingly it was the seasons with .700 or better starts that involved a decrease. The worst the Leafs have finished points percentage-wise in the Matthews era is .579, and with an opening 20 games with a .650 points percentage, the Leafs are in a .610-.701 range over the course of a full season.
The Leafs have benefited from an easy start to the year. Half of their opponents are unlikely to be playoff-bound, though the Leafs have struggled more in those games, only picking up 5 wins. The Leafs have also benefitted from having 12 of their 20 games at home, their record being 9-3-0 at the Scotiabank Arena.
For all the “look how easy they’ve had it” narratives, the injuries to Matthews, Woll, Pacioretty, Domi, Kampf, Jarnkrok, Minten, Dewar, and Hakanpaa have presented a challenge, especially those first three. The Leafs have not only held their own but thrived in Matthews’ absence, making a strong case for being able to stretch their top talent across multiple lines, and rather than using their centre depth issue as a crutch, the Leafs have seen John Tavares step up and Fraser Miten take advantage of a great opportunity.
The Leafs aren’t without their issues, and players like Domi, Kampf, Reaves, Robertson, Holmberg, and Dewar have all left much to be desired, as has their power play (assuming they revert to their old ways when Matthews returns) but for now, at the top of the Atlantic Division with a +11 goal differential, it’s hard not to be enthusiastic about the start of the Craig Berube era and you’d hope that better days are coming once Auston Matthews returns.
