Why Swayman becoming clear No. 1 goalie is best-case scenario originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
There were high expectations for Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman entering last season after he posted phenomenal stats, including a 7-3-0 record and a .945 save percentage, in his first taste of NHL action during the 2020-21 campaign.
Swayman played well in 2021-22, but he was a bit inconsistent and didn’t take a firm hold of the No. 1 goalie job on the Bruins’ roster.
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Will the 2022-23 season see Swayman take that leap and start to become the foundational goalie that Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask were before him?
It would be the best-case scenario in net for the Bruins.
The B’s need a goalie who fits with the timeline of the next core — David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, Fabian Lysell and others. Swayman is 23 years old and could be the Bruins’ starting netminder for the next decade-plus, but he has to earn the role.
Swayman and veteran Linus Ullmark posted nearly identical stats last season and had the same amount of games played (41) and starts (39).
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GP: Ullmark 41, Swayman 41
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SV%: Ullmark .917, Swayman .914
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Saves: Ullmark 1045, Swayman 1015
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GAA: Swayman 2.41, Ullmark 2.45
There are reasons to believe Swayman is ready to enjoy a breakout year.
Swayman finished the 2021-22 regular season strong. He posted a .922 save percentage and 2.02 GAA at 5-on-5 over the final three months. After Ullmark struggled in the first two games of the first-round playoff series against the Carolina Hurricanes, Swayman played the final five games and tallied a 3-2-0 record, a .911 save percentage and a 2.61 GAA. It was a good showing by Swayman in his first real playoff test.
In 51 career games at the NHL level, Swayman has a 30-17-3 record with a .920 save percentage and a 2.20 GAA with five shutouts. He’s also tallied an impressive .818 save percentage on high-danger chances and a 3.74 GSAA (goals saved above average) over that span, per Natural Stat Trick. There’s no question Swayman has the skills to be a top-tier goalie.
Of course, there’s a salary cap component to all of this, too.
Swayman will be a restricted free agent after this season. His next contract could be worth between $4-5 million per year. Two similarly talented young netminders have signed new extensions over the last month. Spencer Knight of the Florida Panthers signed a three-year, $13.5 million deal ($4.5 million salary cap hit). Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars inked a three-year, $12 million contract ($4 million cap hit).
If Swayman’s next deal comes in at $4 million, the Bruins would have $9 million against the salary cap at the goalie position. Ullmark has a $5 million cap hit through the 2024-25 campaign and a no-trade clause in the final two years of his contract. It’s not smart from a roster building perspective to have two goalies each carrying a $4-5 million salary cap hit. If Swayman becomes the guy, then Ullmark’s $5 million cap hit becomes an anchor weighing down the team’s finances.
Swayman morphing into the clear-cut No. 1 goalie would allow the Bruins to move Ullmark’s cap hit and free up space for other areas on the roster that will need upgrading.
Many of the Bruins’ best teams throughout their nearly 100-year history have been built on a very good goalie and a Hall of Fame-caliber defenseman. Swayman becoming a top 10 goalie and solidifying the starting job would be a huge boost for the Bruins as they begin to transition into the post-Patrice Bergeron era.
The Bruins will need a major re-tool/rebuild at some point in the near future. Bergeron is 37 years old. David Krejci is 36. Brad Marchand is 34. The core of this team is among the oldest in the league. Boston’s prospect pool also is among the weakest in the sport, which means there’s not a ton of help coming from the lower levels of the organization over the next few years.
All of these factors point to a potentially painful rebuild on the horizon. One way to lessen that pain is by having an awesome goalie who covers up several of the team’s roster deficiencies. Swayman absolutely is talented enough to be that kind of netminder. The sooner it happens, the better for the Bruins.
