The Boston Bruins were stunned on Sunday after losing in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs—in a Game 7 that went to overtime, no less—to the Florida Panthers. The Bruins had the most wins and standings points ever by a team in the regular season, while the Panthers were a No. 8 seed with the fewest points of any postseason team.
And yet, maybe the loss shouldn’t have been so surprising.
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Since the 2005-06 season, just two of 18 winners of the NHL Presidents’ Trophy (awarded to the team with the best regular-season record) have gone on to win the title. Six of those teams were eliminated in the first round, and another eight were eliminated in the second round.
Despite being historically dominant this season, the Bruins were not immune to the curse. Interestingly, the last team in each of the four major U.S. sports to set a record for regular-season victories failed to win a championship. For instance, the 2016 Golden State Warriors went 73-9 and lost the Finals in a Game 7 nail-biter at home to Cleveland; the 2007 New England Patriots went 16-0 and lost the Super Bowl to the New York Giants; and the 2001 Seattle Mariners tied a record with 116 regular season wins and lost in the ALCS.
Hockey, then, was due, and the oddsmakers had an inkling. Despite being the greatest regular season team of all time, the Bruins had -380 odds to beat the Panthers, which implied only a 76.9% chance to win the series. In contrast, five of the eight favorites in the NBA’s first round had better odds than the Bruins.
History supports the touts’ numbers. Superior teams typically advance at a much lower rate in the NHL playoffs than the NBA playoffs, as outlined by NFL senior director of data and analytics Michael Lopez. His calculations showed that the NHL would need a best-of-51 series to match the NBA’s rate at which the better team advances with a best-of-seven format.
The bigger first-round shock this year actually came in basketball. The NBA’s No. 1 overall seed, the Milwaukee Bucks, lost to the No. 8-seeded Miami Heat in five games, despite -1200 odds at the start of the series, which implied an 88.7% chance of advancing.
The Bruins and Bucks were eliminated in equally agonizing overtime games at home during which they led in the final minute of regulation. The Bucks’ collapse was far worse, however; favorites are expected to win in the NBA, while the nature of hockey lends itself to upsets. In fact, the defending champion Colorado Avalanche also lost in the first round of the NHL playoffs this year, and had nearly as strong odds to win as the Bruins did, at -310 (implying a 73.1% chance of advancing).
Bucks’ star Giannis Antetokounmpo acknowledged the variability in sports during his viral press conference following his team’s loss, denying that the Bucks’ season was a failure. “Some days it’s your turn, some days it’s not your turn, and that’s what sports are about. You don’t always win,” Antetokounmpo said. “And this year, somebody else is going to win. It’s as simple as that.”
In both the NBA and NHL, though, winning directly impacts the bottom line. The New York Rangers generated $50 million, including concessions and merchandise, during their Eastern Conference Finals run last year by hosting 10 home games. NBA and NHL clubs keep 75% and 65% of their home ticket revenue in the playoffs, respectively, with the remainder going to the league.
The Bruins’ historic loss wasn’t even the biggest upset in sports last week. But being favored to win the Stanley Cup Finals and only getting four home playoff games of revenue is financially—to borrow a word from Antetokounmpo’s press conference—a failure.
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