In Connor Bedard’s experience, when the puck leaves his stick the red light tends to go on.
Bedard scored 134 goals in 134 games in the WHL, and 13 markers in 14 contests representing his country at two World Junior Championships — including a historic performance at the 2023 tournament.
For most rookies, getting a first goal out of the way within your first four NHL games would be a fine accomplishment. For Bedard, not having more is a disappointment.
It’s not a reason to panic, assume the 18-year-old has been overhyped, or draw any significant conclusions. It is clearly a source of frustration for the rookie himself, though.
You don’t need to be a body language expert to analyze how the rookie felt in the second period of Monday’s game against the Toronto Maple Leafs after failing to capitalize on a power-play chance.
That seems like a bit of an overreaction on the surface — particularly in a game his Chicago Blackhawks were leading at the time — but there is context that goes beyond Bedard’s high expectations for himself.
No NHL player has directed more shots toward the net than the rookie so far this season (36). If we included preseason results, Bedard has generated 64 shot attempts against NHL goaltenders — 35 of them on target — and seen one touch twine (his preseason goal was an empty-netter).
That’s a pretty surprising result for a player who came into the NHL with scouting reports marvelling at his release, and comparing it to the deadly shot of Auston Matthews.
Chances are what we’re seeing is just a statistical blip.
Even in the WHL, Bedard occasionally had stretches where the puck stubbornly refused to cross the line. In the midst of his 71-goal campaign in 2022-23, he had a four-game stretch from Oct. 1-7 where he scored once on 25 shots on goal. The previous year he endured a five-game scoreless streak that included 24 attempts on target.
The difference with his current stretch is that he doesn’t have proof of concept to lean on. When Bedard had brief wobbles in the WHL, he knew for a fact he could dominate the league and the goals would come in bunches soon.
He doesn’t have that in the NHL. It would be unfair to presume that his confidence is shaken, but it’s easier to navigate a rough patch — however brief — if you know what the light at the end of the tunnel looks like.
Bedard doesn’t yet, although he will soon. Even in the first point-less game of his brief NHL career, he consistently produced Grade A chances — like this first-period rush that put John Klingberg in pylon mode…
… or this wrist shot snatched away by Joseph Woll’s glove:
If Bedard keeps doing what he’s doing, the results are going to come.
When he’s on the ice, the Blackhawks have gotten 52% of the shots and 52.70% of the expected goals at 5-on-5 despite the relatively low quality of teammates he’s working with. He leads the NHL in individual scoring chances at 5-on-5 (20), and the man at No. 2 on the list (William Nylander) sits at 12.
The rookie also has the tools to be a weapon on the power play as a passer and finisher, and the Blackhawks are still finding their grove with the man advantage (5.6 PP%). There’s no reason to be concerned about Bedard’s prognosis for the rest of the season.
Perhaps the only concern for the rookie is whether his early struggles finding the net will affect his play. The combination of his shot quality and lack of elite teammates justifies a shot-first mentality, but he can’t do everything himself.
In his first preseason game, Blackhawks head coach Luke Richardson observed that Bedard “really wanted to score” and sometimes he has looked a touch overeager on that front. A good example came in the third period on Monday when he charged into the teeth of the defense at the end of a power play instead of trying to set something up.
Trying to attribute individual plays to a player’s mindset is a dangerous game, but Bedard seems to be having a tough time with his inability to score consistently in the first chapter of his NHL journey.
It doesn’t seem like that issue is likely to persist. Bedard’s scoring touch hasn’t really shown itself at the game’s highest level yet, but based on the chances he’s getting, his exasperation should be a thing of the past soon.
