The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to stay unbeaten at home as they host the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday evening. These sides have split six matchups over the last three regular seasons, but Toronto is a heavy favorite in Wednesday’s game after some line movement, due to the announcement that David Rittich would start in goal for Los Angeles.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favorite betting angles bets below.
Kings vs. Maple Leafs Odds
- Kings Moneyline Odds: +155
- Leafs Moneyline Odds: -185
- Puck Line Odds: Kings +1.5 (-165), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over +100, under -120)
Los Angeles Kings
After years of being one of the league’s most defensive teams, the Kings decided to ditch the 1-3-1 this season and opt for a slightly more up-tempo style. The results have been so-so in the early going, as they are 1-0-2 and have played to a 47.58% expected goal share. They have allowed 3.21 expected goals against per 60 thus far, which is up considerably compared to years past, in which they held elite defensive metrics.
Drew Doughty’s preseason injury leaves a significant hole on the blue-line, but they do have a pair of right-shot defenders that could help fill the void. Brandt Clarke has the offensive upside to fill in effectively on the top power play unit, and could offer a huge breakout this season. Jordan Spence was an analytical darling last season, and is also worthy of a larger role.
Rittich has been confirmed as the Kings starting goaltender in this matchup, after it was announced that Darcy Kuemper is day-to-day with injury. After years of posting well below average results, Rittich surprised last season in posting a +13.8 GSAx and .921 save % in 24 appearances.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Craig Berube era got off to a solid start, as the Leafs posted a 2-1 record in the seasons opening week. The Leafs were arguably the better team in all three of their matchups so far, and have outshot opponents by an average of 11.09 shots per 60 minutes of play thus far. Their 57.78 expected goal share ranks second only to the New Jersey Devils this season.
The Leafs new look blue-line has been a strength to this point, as Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have both contributed strong play on the first and second units. Toronto’s defensive core will look slightly different in this matchup, as Timothy Liljegren is expected to make his season debut on the third pairing in place of Conor Timmins.
There are some obvious areas to nitpick through the opening week, as Auston Matthews has zero points through three games and the Leafs powerplay unit has yet to score this season.
The chances have been there for Matthews though, and the play of the top line continues to be highly positive. In 31.3 minutes together Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Matthew Knies have generated 4.79 expected goals per 60, and have allowed only 1.91 xGA/60.
Matthews had eight shots on goal against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday, and has 15 through the opening three matchups of the season.
John Tavares returned to practice Tuesday, and is expected to play in this matchup. William Nylander is listed as day-to-day with illness, and is considered a true game-time decision.
Best Bets for Kings vs Maple Leafs:
The Leafs are catching the Kings in a favourable spot here with Rittich getting the start, but Los Angeles has looked strong so far and projects to be one of the Pacific division’s best once again. With the status of Nylander, I do not currently see value backing the Leafs as a heavy favorites.
For the second straight game I zeroed in on the Leafs top line to score in Saturday’s piece backing Knies to score, and was rewarded. There doesn’t look to be much reason to shake things up too significantly here; that line continues to look excellent, and could be relied upon heavily tonight if Nylander is unavailable.
Matthews is getting his typical amount of looks, and is going to have an offensive outburst soon. At -139 I think there is value backing tonight to be the night he nets his first of the season, and I also like a smaller bet on him to score two goals at +600.
Best Bet: Auston Matthews Anytime Goal -139 (Sports Interaction, Play to -145), Two Goals +600 (SIA, Play to +575)
