Islanders Not Signing Players To Extensions Yet Is The Right Decision; Prediction Time

The priority for New York Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello is always finding ways to make his current team better.

Although not monumental changes, the signing of Anthony Duclair at $3.5 million annually over the next four years and the retainment of defenseman Mike Reilly on a one-year deal at $1.25 million certainly helps increase their playoff odds.

Related: Islanders Alumn Mark Parrish Celebrates Four Years Of Sobriety

Parlay that with a full season of Patrick Roy and a needed bounce-back season from starting netminder Ilya Sorokin, the Islanders should be a playoff team.

Throw in Maxim Tsyplakov as a top-six wild card, and the Islanders’ offense should take strides this season. This should, in part, help alleviate their defensive woes, which were too prevalent during the 2023-24 season.

While the priority is now—which it will always be—the Islanders do have a few players entering the final years of their contracts when the 2024-25 season begins.

Veteran forwards Brock Nelson ($6 M AAV) and Kyle Palmieri ($5 M AAV) along with young defensemen Noah Dobson ($4 M) and Alexander Romanov ($2 M) are on expiring deals that need to be dealt, at some point.

Lamoriello was asked about those four extensions at the 2024 NHL Draft in Las Vegas and how important it was to him to get those potential extensions signed before the start of the season.

“That is not the focus right now,” Lamoriello said when asked about Nelson and Palmieri extensions. “That’s not in any disrespect to them or anything. I think the focus right now is getting this team into the best situation we can.”

When asked about his two young defensemen, Lamoriello said that his previous statement “applies to everybody.”

It’s quite possible that at some point between now and next offseason, all four players have signed on the dotted lines.

But even after prioritizing this upcoming season, it’s still not the right time to sign extensions, and here’s why.

Accounting for the latest contracts added to the books, per PuckPedia, and the expected cap increase ($92 M for 2025-26), the Islanders will have around $29.67 million next summer before inking any extensions.

With pending free agents like Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, and Leon Draisaitl, to name a few, the Islanders don’t want to be cap-strapped unless they do what they’ve done normally and get a potential top free agent ahead of schedule before or at the trade deadline.

So, their ability to have cap space coincides with contract extensions.

Now for the fun guessing games that people like to play.

Let’s get the easier ones out of the way—the ones we know will come eventually.

Dobson, who had 70 points last season (10 goals, 60 assists) even with a few weeks of offensive struggles, will likely see his name part of the Norris Trophy conversations for the rest of his career.

Yes, he needs to grow his defensive game before he can be relied upon in all situations, but it’s incredibly likely that he will get $8 million annually over eight years–which could be a bargain since the cap will continue to rise exponentially.

His defense partner, Romanov, has become a smarter defenseman since joining the Islanders, not chasing hits while also increasing his offensive output, scoring seven goals with 15 assists in 81 games.

Signing a five-year extension worth $5 million annually seems like a fair mark for the fellow 24-year-old.

These two deals bring the Islanders’ 2025-26 cap space down to $16.67 million.

Now to the “harder” decisions.

Nelson has been the Islanders offensive leader for quite some time and is coming off a season where he scored 34 goals with 35 assists for 79 points this past season, his third straight season with 30-plus goals.

There was chatter amongst the fan base that it made sense for the Islanders to trade Nelson this summer and get back as much as possible while his value is still high, with him entering his age 33 season.

Nelson could bring back a haul, but for a team with long-term commitments to many players, trading Nelson would have likely led to the trading of others and a major revamp—a few steps back—to potentially be better down the road.

Some fans would have signed up for that yesterday, but being realistic, the Islanders clearly didn’t feel it was the right path to take.

They want to win and trading their best scorer for prospects and picks doesn’t help do that.

But that doesn’t mean the Islanders need to re-sign Nelson now or ever—the latest being July 1, 2025—before any team can pounce on the 2023 All-Star centerman.

It would be ultra-shocking if Nelson’s production improved this upcoming season. That means whatever Nelson’s camp is prepared to ask the Islanders for right now, team-friendly or not, is as high a number and length as he’s going to get.

So, if the Islanders plan to keep Nelson long-term, it’s in their best interest to see how the team performs this season before deciding on what to offer him.

Like most long-time Islanders, it’s not crazy to think he’d take a team-friendly discount to remain on the island.

Deserving of a raise, Nelson on a five-year deal at $7 million makes sense, as his numbers have been more consistent than teammate Bo Horvat, who inked an eight-year extension worth $8.25 million upon arriving in 2023.

Horvat is four years younger than Nelson and in his prime.

Nelson’s “prime” began when Barry Trotz came to the island in 2018, but unlike Horvat, Nelson isn’t playing on the Islanders’ top line and his defensive play took a step back this past year.

Nelson getting $7 million annually would leave New York with $9.7 million in cap space.

While not the elite goal scorer that Nelson has proven to be, more so due to health than anything, Palmieri had his first 30-goal campaign since joining the Islanders ahead of the 2021 NHL Trade Deadline.

He also played in all 82 games for the first time in the Blue & Orange and just the second time in his career.

But Palmieri is past his prime, and a decision about his future truly depends on how this season goes for him and the team.

Palmieri was the Islanders’ most consistent forward under Roy, scoring 19 goals in the final 37 games of the regular season.

The Islanders have a few winger prospects in the pool, but all are major question marks in regard to contributing offensively at the NHL level (Matthew Maggio, Alex Jefferies, William Dufour). 

Cole Eiserman, whom the Islanders selected with the 20th overall pick at the 2024 NHL Draft, could replace Duclair on the top line or Palmieri on the second line in the future.

He is entering his freshman year at Boston University, and we should be able to get a better answer about whether there’s a chance he can be more than a one-dimensional forward.

In today’s NHL, that doesn’t fly.

The Islanders could decide to move Palmieri or let him walk, depending on how much Simon Holmstrom can grow his offensive game in Year 3.

If Palmieri comes back, he likely wouldn’t need more money annually than his previous deal, and with a team discount, a three-year deal worth $5 million (cap going up, so not the same in terms of overall cap percentage) should work.

That deal would leave the Islanders with $4.7 million in cap space, which isn’t a lot.

When you factor in extensions to Tsyplakov (arbitration-eligible) and Holmstrom, that number likely comes down to $2.7 million in available space if both have deals with a $1 million AAV.

That’s not enough space to improve the roster.

It may be easier for the Islanders to trade captain Anders Lee ($7M AAV) and Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($5M AAV), who will both be entering the final year of their deals in 2025-26.

The two young defensemen are coming back regardless of this season’s results, and unless both take significant strides backward, they shouldn’t see their predicted AAV deviate from that mark much.

Extensions to Nelson and Palmieri will be impacted based on what happens.

As Lamoriello says,” If you have time, use it.”

Loyalty is something that Lamoriello had to deal with when moving Josh Bailey two summers ago and again this summer, as Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck currently remain free agents, and the team does not have the necessary cap space to bring either back.

TOP STORIES

Related: How To Win Two Tickets For All Islanders 2024-25 Regular Season Home Games

Related: Islanders MSG Broadcast, Media Team Earn New York Emmy Nominations

Related: Nassau County Approves 42-Year Lease Of Former Islanders Home, Nassau Coliseum, To Las Vegas Sands