Timothy Liljegren’s restart under a new Toronto Maple Leafs coach hasn’t gone exactly as planned. Craig Berube was going to be a chance to prove he is capable of bigger things but if training camp is an indication, both Marshall Rifai and Conor Timmins have endeared themselves to the new bench boss more than the Swede.
“Everything can happen, right? I’m just trying to take it day by day. I know we got to make some changes, so we’ll see where it goes,” Liljegren said Friday via Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun.
“Trying to earn my spot. Haven’t really had that much flow in my game. I think it’s been OK, but not my best hockey.”
Making a decision off the small sample of the preseason wouldn’t be ideal but the reality is Liljegren’s career to date and his higher cap hit are also unlikely to do him any favours as the October 8th roster deadline date nears.
Liljegren is a player that Maple Leafs fans are sure to argue about. The opinions run the gamut of everywhere from he’s a surefire second pairing defenceman right now to him being deserving of a shot with a coach that isn’t Sheldon Keefe to him being the bottom pairing defenceman that has their value overstated based on the competition they’ve faced to being too soft to be useful.
On one hand, you have The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn ‘s contract valuation model which absolutely adores Liljegren, states that he has a surplus of contract value and should be paid like a top four defenceman and utilized like one as well. On the other hand you’ve got plenty of memorable moments where fans (and coaches) remember ill advised passes or Liljegren over-committing on a play or any number of plays that led to tough moments down the stretch last season which ultimately led to Liljegren spending Game Four of the playoffs in the press box. Mistakes happen and in a season that saw Liljegren as a bright spot early on but disappeared down the stretch, an off-season full of training and fresh start for a new coach didn’t bring the change that Liljegren had hoped for.
| Stat | Rate | Rank |
| ATOI | 16:08 | 5th |
| CA/60 | 64.21 | 10th |
| GA/60 | 2.37 | 6th |
| xGA/60 | 2.58 | 7th |
Liljegren’s numbers weren’t bad, but not great either defensively, he was very much a middle of the road defender. Those who had better numbers than him on goals and expected goals included more sheltered players like Lagesson, Timmins, Lyubushkin, and Benoit, but comes with the caveat that the Liljegren was certainly more sheltered than Rielly, McCabe, and Brodie. Liljegren was just one of the options that the Leafs looked at in the top four and ultimately Benoit’s chemistry with McCabe and Sheldon Keefe’s attempts to lean on Joel Edmundson prevailed over giving Liljegren his time.
Liljegren’s on-ice offensive success certainly offsets some of his defensive shortcomings and ultimately the puck went in the direction the Leafs wanted it to most of the time Liljegren was on the ice, with Liljegren particularly being someone that Keefe trusted in offensive zone situations with his scoring lines when Morgan Rielly wasn’t available. Liljegren also took on the second most minutes of defencemen behind Morgan Rielly on the powerplay and he immediately addressed the void created by John Klingberg’s season ending injury in that regard.
Liljegren wasn’t a penalty killer, but he did the fifth most minutes of the Leafs blueliners on the penalty kill last season, which really only means that he was a better option than Morgan Rielly.
Of course, all of this comes with Liljegren playing under Sheldon Keefe and if you are person who sees Liljegren’s talent and believes Keefe was holding him back, I’m sure these all look like encouraging numbers to build off.
The fact of the matter is that Craig Berube hasn’t really created that new opportunity for Timothy Liljegren. Berube has been using two bottom pairing options in training camp, Simon Benoit with Conor Timmins and Marshall Rifai with Timothy Liljegren. The path to the second pairing seemed to be cut off to Liljegren immediately when Oliver Ekman-Larsson was put with Jake McCabe. Now with Jani Hakanpaa, another right side option looking to return shortly, it seems that Liljegren’s $3M AAV cap hit might make him the odd man out on the third pairing, if not immediately than potentially when Hakanpaa is ready to go.
Craig Berube and the Leafs do seem to be happy with what they’ve seen from Marshall Rifai, and perhaps that could mean that the Leafs will go into the regular season with a Rifai-Liljegren third pairing and Simon Benoit being the 7th defenceman to start, or the Leafs could trust that Benoit and Liljegren can figure out being a third pairing together after having different partners throughout the preseason, but there has certainly been no boost to Timothy’s status under Craig Berube in the short term and if that’s the case, moving on from the defenceman might be in the best interest of both the Leafs and Liljegren, assuming he holds value around the league.
Moving on from Liljegren has a similar feel to the Leafs moving on from another Swedish defenceman that couldn’t quite find his place in the Leafs lineup, and that is Anton Stralman. Stralman, like Liljegren, wasn’t a physical presence but a sound puck mover who got even less of a chance in Toronto than Liljegren. While Stralman was certainly a safer player than Liljegren and one more prone to sound defensive thinking, both fit with the conditions of being good but not the right fit, and some might suggest that forcing the fit for Liljegren might serve the Leafs better in the long run.
Liljegren also does have that $3M AAV contract and if he is staying a 3rd-pairing defenceman, the would seem like unnecessary salary bloat on a team that could already be running a close to $6M fourth line of Jarnkrok-Kampf-Reaves, assuming one or more of them aren’t in the press box. Finding ways of removing expensive depth in favour of cap space for help higher up in the lineup would make sense.
Crashing back into reality, the cold water splash is that the preseason doesn’t really mean much. Timmins might look like a capable puck-moving option the Leafs can insert in the lineup when needed, and Marshall Rifai might look like a bottom-pairing defender as long he is not facing NHLers at full speed. The reality of the regular season is that Liljegren’s talent level might make him the best option the Leafs have.
Data from Natural Stat Trick
