Craig Berube will make his Leafs coaching debut as his side starts the season with a date against the rival Canadiens at the Bell Centre. While these games have always tended to be highly competitive and exciting every year, this one could have a little extra bite after Cedric Pare injured Patrik Laine in a knee-on-knee collision in the preseason.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Odds
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -200
- Canadiens Moneyline Odds: +165
- Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+125), Canadiens +1.5 (-150)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -120, under +100)
Toronto Maple Leafs
Though a large portion of the Leafs faithful was pushing for more significant changes, a proven winner in hard-nosed bench boss Craig Berube does inspire some hope this season could be different.
It wouldn’t be Toronto without some added drama, though, and right out of the gates, that’s what we are getting as Joseph Woll appears likely to miss this contest with injury. That means we should see Anthony Stolarz make his Leafs debut, who could prove to be a smart bet by Brad Treliving.
Among goaltenders with 25 or more starts last season, Stolarz’s .925 save % ranked first in the NHL. His 0.801 goals saved above expected per 60 rating also ranked first in the NHL. He also played to a +0.4 GSAx and .914 save % the year previous behind a drastically worse defensive side in Anaheim.
It seems hard to imagine Stolarz will be as dominant this year, but the Leafs should only need him to achieve league-average results to find regular-season success.
Based on yesterday’s practice, Auston Matthews will centre the top unit with Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies on his wings. William Nylander’s stint as a center looks to be over, as he skated on John Tavares’ wing yesterday, with Max Domi rounding out the trio.
Nick Robertson looks to have earned a spot on the third line with his preseason dominance, and it appears that Bobby McMann will be the odd man out for this matchup. Part of Berube’s thinking there could be that this is an important spot to dress Ryan Reaves, given the way the last matchup between these teams went in the preseason.
Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev skated as the top pairing at yesterday’s practice, and Oliver Ekman Larsson looks to be drawing a top-four role to start alongside Jake McCabe.
The top powerplay unit is as expected, with the “big four” being quarterbacked by Morgan Rielly.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens are hoping to take meaningful steps forward this season after a 76-point campaign last season. Oddsmakers aren’t sure whether that will be the case or not, as Montreal’s regular-season point total O/U is set at 76.5 points.
The Canadiens held a seventh-worst xGF% last season of 46.02 and allowed a fourth-worst xGA/60 of 2.95.
There are some valid arguments as to why this year’s team could own a higher share of the play, though, and if Samuel Montembeault is the same goaltender he was last season, that should give them a strong chance of pushing past last year’s 76-point total.
Blue-chip prospect Lane Hutson has the upside to immediately improve the Canadiens’ top four and was fantastic this preseason. He gets a tough assignment working alongside a five-on-five anchor in David Savard. Kaiden Guhle could be a logical candidate to take steps forward and looks set to play on the top pairing in this matchup.
The Canadiens will skate the same top line we saw last season, with Nick Suzuki centring Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky. In 750.7 minutes together last season, the trio skated to a 51.9% expected goal share and put together a strong second half, which included a near-point-per-game pace from Slafkovsky.
Montembeault has been confirmed as the Canadiens starter in this matchup. He posted a +3.3 GSAx and .903 save % in 41 appearances last year.
Jayden Struble and Patrik Laine go as notable absences due to injury.
Best Bets for Leafs vs Canadiens
Laying big numbers early on in the year can be dicey, as it can be tough to predict which teams will come out of the gates in form. While I’m high on the Leafs this regular season, this doesn’t look like an appealing spot to lay -200 to back a Leafs victory.
The last three season openers between these sides have been highly competitive one-goal games, and I believe we see something similar tonight. At +350, I see value in backing this game to end tied through regulation, and I would bet it to +340.
Slafkovsky and the Canadiens’ top line finished last season in strong form and could take steps forward with all three skating into their true primes. We could see plenty of powerplays, given the way games are reffed early on in the year and the fact that this game could be fairly chippy. They could also benefit from home ice advantage, as Martin St. Louis can try to use last change to keep them away from matchups against Matthews line. All three should get their share of chances in this matchup, and at a lofty price of +160, I see value in backing Slafkovsky to record three shots on goal.
Best Bets: Juraj Slafkovsky Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+160 Bet365, Play to +155), Regulation Tie (+350 Bet365, Play to +340)
