Having too many good defencemen is never a bad thing. And when he’s healthy Jani Hakanpaa looks like he might be a pretty good defenceman, at least in the bottom pairing capacity. Hakanpaa has that unteachable size and brings a lot of the characteristics the Leafs lost with the departures of Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson while costing nowhere near as much given the gamble the Leafs are taking regarding Hakanpaa’s health situation.
Jani Hakanpää (knee) will talk to Leafs staff tomorrow about his timeline
“Hopefully as fast as possible. You’re itching. You’re itching at this time. We put a lot of work into all of that so we’re getting close but now just put the finishing touches on it & get back out there”
— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) September 16, 2024
Jani Hakanpää on recovery from knee injury:
“In my mind, It’s been clear that I’m going to get back … it’s a little bit of a roller-coaster almost. There’s good days, bad days, but I think that underlying trust that it’s going to happen eventually has always been there”
— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) September 16, 2024
Hakanpaa’s addition (when he is ready) can be looked at as welcome depth to a group that already looked like a worthwhile top six of Rielly, Tanev, McCabe, Liljegren, Ekman-Larsson, and Benoit, and has the safety net of Conor Timmins, Phillipe Myers, Dakota Mermis, Topi Niemela, Marshall Rifai, Cade Webber, and Mikko Kokkonen behind that group. And while that defensive group is far from perfect the addition of Hakanpaa would ensure that overlapping injuries won’t as impact the Leafs as they were last season.
While depth is king, Hakanpaa’s arrival does likely mean that some of that depth will likely be risked by putting Conor Timmins on waivers. This shouldn’t alarm anyone, but if he is claimed, the list of players above is slightly strained.
Hakanpaa’s arrival could all the Leafs to challenge their depth in another way and it will likely be dependent on how things play out in training camp. If Timothy Liljegren isn’t a fit for what Craig Berube wants on the blueline the idea of moving on from a $3M AAV player has some merit. Given the limited cap space, the Leafs will have, moving on from Liljegren either immediately or later this season could put the Leafs in a better situation to address more pressing areas such as adding to Toronto’s depth at centre. With many question marks after Matthews and Tavares, moving Liljegren’s salary and assuming that he has some value around the league could potentially improve the Leafs or at worst be a deck chair shuffling exercise.
Looking at Timothy Liljegren and Conor Timmins as the Leafs bottom pairing puck moving options it is pretty clear which one that Leafs would prefer to have in their lineup with all things being equal, and that’s Liljegren. He is also the one that has that can comfortably be moved up the lineup when the Leafs depth gets challenged, and the three defencemen being discussed here (Liljegren, Timmins, and Hakanpaa) might be the ones that pose the biggest risk to staying healthy as well. The rub is whether a $3M third pairing defenceman is a luxury the Leafs can handle this season and instead having a $1.1M 7D who can come in when the club needs puck moving support might be the best way to go.
Both Liljegren and Timmins are on good contracts based on Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic’s contract valuation model. Liljegren scores a B+ grade over the two year term of his deal while the final year of Conor Timmins scores a B-. Both players are seen to add surplus value to the Maple Leafs but the model appears to favour offensive defencemen playing against bottom six forward competition so the value might be overstated but nevertheless shows that these are valuable players within the Leafs organization and if the Leafs decide to move on from one, retaining the other will be important.
The other recent piece that might create an interesting defensive depth scenario is the strong showing in the prospect games from Topi Niemela. If making significant roster chances based on training camp is difficult, making a decision based off exhibition games involving prospects is insane and not what I’m suggesting here. What I am suggesting is that Niemela looks good and is ready to push. He has spent five years in pro hockey, including a full one in North America, and Topi coming to Leafs training camp ready to compete for a job isn’t absurd. He’s another player who doesn’t offer what Hakanpaa does but has the skill set that certainly puts him in direct competition with Conor Timmins for icetime if all things remain equal from last season and if he’s improved his eventual upside would be very similar to that of Timothy Liljegren’s.
Like I said earlier, it might be premature to simply say, “it’s time to move on from Timothy Liljegren” as preseason and training camp will not tell the full picture, especially when a timeline on Hakanpaa isn’t set in stone. What is interesting is that if a roster fit can’t be found for him in the immediate future and if other Leafs are pushing for icetime, does Liljegren become a better trade chip than some of the Leafs depth forwards being suggested? I’d argue yes. Jani Hakanpaa certainly establishes the direction that Brad Treliving is wanting to take the Leafs blueline in, and if Craig Berube concurs on the bigger, tougher backend, Liljegren looks like the clear odd man out.
