In a different time and place, Easton Cowan is presently in his second week of tearing up the AHL on the Marlies and taking advantage of the Toronto Maple Leafs Player Development. The Maple Leafs can recall Cowan whenever they’d like. That sounds wonderful and is likely the exact development path the Leafs would have chosen for Cowan if it was presently available but for Canadian Hockey League players, it presently isn’t an option and that’s why he is back with the London Knights with six points in his first five games of the season.
Heard from a source that next CBA could feature AHL eligibility for 19-year-olds. Lots of change swirling around prospect world but this would be great for the Matt Savoie types of talents.
— Ryan Kennedy (@THNRyanKennedy) October 21, 2024
According to Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News, there seems to be a push in the next collective agreement to change that. That doesn’t help Cowan any, but it certainly will benefit any prospect that comes after. From a player and team perspective, this seems like something the NHL should be eager to embrace, so the question becomes what are the barriers to this move and why does it need to go through the bargaining process?
The first barrier is the obvious one. The NHL-CHL transfer agreement prevents 19-year-olds from playing in the AHL unless they have already played four seasons of CHL hockey. That agreement is in place until 2029, so the NHL would need to negotiate an early end to that agreement or any intention to begin allowing 19-year-old CHL graduates to play in the AHL would have to start at that point. That’s a pretty big barrier and with the CHL already potentially seeing their players consider the NCAA if changes are made to the rules south of the border, some serious concessions would have to be made to support the CHL.
The next barrier that the league faces is the NHLPA. Easing the path for CHL players to play in the AHL and NHL is a threat to the job security of the NHLPA membership. While the NHLPA as an organization isn’t negatively impacted by this, the move potentially takes away a roster spot from an existing NHLPA member every time a prospect gets an early look in the pro ranks and with the average career length of an NHL player already limited to five years, taking on additional risk to reaching a retirement benefit eligible status is something the NHLPA will negotiate against.
There’s also the small matter of NHL team owners who also happen to be CHL team owners. The Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Calgary Flames are three examples of NHL teams that also own CHL teams. That’s enough to create some resistance towards an idea that would take eyes off of major junior hockey.
The seemingly simple issue of AHL eligibility also has the potential to dovetail into stickier CBA topics that either the NHL or the NHLPA might not wish to venture into. The length of Entry Level Contracts will certainly become a sticking point both from a player and team perspective as the slide rule potentially becomes an issue for players and the length of the entry-level deals could be an issue for both sides. There is also the matter of how free agency works and if this is the case for either lengthening or shortening the restricted free agency period, and it will potentially impact Group VI unrestricted free agent status as well.
There is also the possibility that the league along with the CHL could look at this as an opportunity to shift towards a later draft age and require players to be 19 in order to be drafted into the NHL. While these two things do not necessarily have to be linked, it does allow for the CHL to market itself primarily as a draft-eligible league, something it already seems to do but with an extra year the quality of competition should go up. It remains to be seen how unified anyone is on their belief that a later draft age is in the best interest of the NHL or CHL so it’s hard to imagine the boat will be rocked that much.
The NCAA eligibility of CHL players decision will likely serve as a catalyst for whether AHL eligibility changes in the future. If the CHL finds that it is already losing its high school graduates to the NCAA it will need to redefine itself as a primarily U18 league similar to the USHL or Canadian Junior-A leagues.
The number of side issues related to changing the AHL eligibility age might be what prevents something that seems beneficial for the league and sport from happening. In the event that it does happen, it would be an area for the Maple Leafs to gain advantage, at least the Leafs in their current state.
Players taken in the first half of the first round of the draft are often most likely to be NHL-ready, while the Leafs, who presently draft in the back half of the first round often get a good player but still require some more fine-tuning. The Easton Cowans, Ben Danfords, etc. of the world returning to junior for their post-draft season is generally not an issue, but often by a second post-draft season there isn’t much more than can be shown to the organization and opportunity is missed to more closely structure a development path and begin having the player work within the system they will be expected to play in. For an organization like the Leafs that has invested heavily in player development and couldn’t have their AHL team any closer to their resources, there is a huge benefit for the prospect and club, and ideally would be an advantage Toronto would have over more budget-focused clubs.
Serious CBA discussion is unlikely to start or at least start to be discussed until the conclusion of this season, and the agreement won’t expire until after the 2025-26 season, so change isn’t on the horizon anytime soon. The idea of making changes to how the NHL develops its prospects being on the radar is encouraging though and one that offers a chance to see the NHL and AHL product improve at a time when expansion has the potential to wreak havoc on the talent pool.
