It’s well-known by this point that the Oilers are having trouble scoring this year.
It’s not that they’re not creating any offence: their expected goals share at even strength is 56.27%, the third-highest in the league. But they’re shooting just 5.72% at even strength, and their usually excellent powerplay has floundered.
Tonight, they’re facing a team that has had no such trouble finding the back of the net: the Vegas Golden Knights. Pick just about any offensive stat and the Golden Knights are the opposite of the Oilers this season.
Shooting percentage? Vegas has the best in the league (15.1%), and the Oilers have the worst (7.11%).
Powerplay? It’s running at a 32.3% clip, third-best in the league (the Oilers sit at 14.7%).
Even-strength goals share? Vegas has Edmonton beat, 57.14% to 46.67%.
Regular old goals? Vegas has 54, second in the league, while the Oilers languish in 28th place with just 31.
When it comes to scoring goals, the Golden Knights could not be more different from the Oilers. Interestingly, that also applies to expected goals.
The advanced stats just don’t back up Vegas’ offensive firepower through the first month of the season, with MoneyPuck pegging them with an xG% of 46.9% at even strength. That’s 25th in the league, just below Calgary and St. Louis and just ahead of Chicago and Philadelphia, no one’s idea of juggernauts.
Of course, this is an extremely talented team, the kind with the playmaking and finishing talent to outplay their advanced numbers. Just maybe not to such an extreme degree.
So what does this mean for the Oilers? Expected goals don’t go up on the scoreboard, as they well know.
For one, it means they can’t give Vegas any extra chances or possessions. Seven (seven!) Golden Knights come into tonight’s game with shooting percentages north of 20%, including both top-line wingers (Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev) and the entire line of Tomas Hertl, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Brett Howden.
It also means that the powerplay needs to get going. That’s been true all year, but doubly so against a team on a scoring binge like this. You simply can’t give up any chance to score a goal against this team. Thankfully, the return of Connor McDavid should give them a boost on the man advantage.
Finally, it means they need to keep playing their game. Vegas is beatable, especially at the bottom of the lineup where almost everyone has been out-chanced this year.
So, cut out the defensive mistakes, get the powerplay working, and keep outshooting the opposition at even strength. Easy, right?
If you’re reading that and thinking “isn’t that what the Oilers have needed to do all season?”, well, yes. These are the Vegas Golden Knights, they’re really good. To beat good teams, you have to be a good team yourself. For the Oilers, that could be just a few adjustments — or lucky breaks — away.
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
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We’ll see whether they can make those adjustments or catch those breaks at 6:30 tonight, on Sportsnet.
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