The Edmonton Oilers were once 2024-25 Stanley Cup favourites.
That’s no longer the case after their 11-9-2 start, which has dwindled their chances to 7.5%, per MoneyPuck. They currently sit 4th in the Pacific Division, one point ahead of the Vancouver Canucks for the final playoff spot, while the Canucks have three games in hand over the Oilers.
Despite their mediocre start and precarious standings position, the Oilers still have little to worry about in the Pacific. In fact, they’re still firmly in the running to win it.
That’s thanks in large part to a bit of a down year for the Pacific. The Oilers are just four points behind the division-leading Vegas Golden Knights, who have 28 points through 21 games. Just behind them is Calgary, with 27, and Los Angeles, with 25, while the aforementioned Canucks sit one point behind Edmonton.
MoneyPuck predicts that Vegas will stay on top, giving them a 45% chance of winning the division and projecting them for 106 points. Their model gives Edmonton a 16.6% chance of finishing first, third in the division behind Los Angeles (18.5%), while both are projected for 100.5 points.
Things are more optimistic over at The Athletic, where the Oilers are still projected as the 4th-best team in the league at 106 points, ahead of the Canucks at 103 and the Golden Knights at 101.
Now, reaching 106 points at the end of the season would require the Oilers to put up a .716 points percentage through their final 60 games, a 117.5-point pace over a full season. That’s a tall order: only Winnipeg, Minnesota, and Carolina have accomplished that this season and the Oilers haven’t done it in a full season since 1985-86.
But that’s not to say it’s impossible. I’d certainly hew closer to the Athletic’s 106-point projection than MoneyPuck’s 100.5. We’ve already seen what this year’s Oilers can do when their shooting luck turns and their goaltending is solid: they beat the Rangers so badly on Saturday that they’re considering trading their captain and their longest-tenured player in response.
At the end of the day, the Oilers would be happy to simply make the playoffs after their slow start. But they’ve placed second in their division each of the past five years, and they should be sick of second-best. In a division where no one has quite taken the reins yet, the Oilers have every chance of winning their first division title in 38 years.
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