Thanks to a 7-1-0 run without Auston Matthews, the Toronto Maple Leafs enter this matchup with a three point lead over the Flordia Panthers atop the Atlantic Division. Toronto has been far less dominant on the road, where it holds a record of 3-3-3 this season. Matthews is expected to return during the Leafs two-game road trip, but it’s unclear whether that will be tonight or Saturday in Tampa.
The Panthers have lost six of their last seven games entering this matchup, and should be desperate to bring a better performance to this matchup.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Odds
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: +120
- Panthers Moneyline Odds: -140
- Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-220), Panthers -1.5 (+180)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -120, under +100)
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nobody is going to care too greatly what the Leafs do in November, but they are doing a good job of making the case that this team could be different.
With a laundry list of forwards missing from the lineup, the Leafs have leaned on elite defensive play and strong goaltending to put up excellent results. Over the last 10 games, the Leafs hold a 56.1 percent expected goal share, and allowed only 2.62 xGA/60. They have allowed just 1.8 goals against in that span.
Chris Tanev adds a new wrinkle to the team in being a truly elite shutdown defender that can also move the puck up the ice effectively, and his addition is significant reason for this Leafs team might actually be better than in years previous.
Still, if you look at the most common score-lines from Leafs playoff matchups during the “Core Four” era, it doesn’t really make sense to say that an inability to defend has been the greatest problem. Finding offence in the postseason versus elite defensive teams has always been the greatest concern, and this matchup presents as an intriguing spot for Craig Berube’s side to show they are capable of doing so.
The Leafs forward units all look considerably different than they did on opening night, especially if Matthews is to remain sidelined. Fill-ins like Fraser Minten and Nikita Grebenkin have done a good job helping to cover some of the bottom six losses though, and haven’t really downgraded the minutes which were being played by skaters currently missing from the lineup.
Anthony Stolarz is Toronto’s projected starter. Stolarz has played to a +5.7 GSAx and .927 save percentage in 12 appearances this season, and ranks first in both those categories over the last two years among goalies with 35 or more starts.
Florida Panthers
It seemed fair to expect that the Panthers might lack urgency at times during the 82-game grind of this regular season, and that has looked to be the case of late. A team that just went to back-to-back Cup Finals based largely off of elite defensive play has struggled to keep the puck out of their net in allowing 4.28 goals against per game over the last seven games.
From a handicapping perspective, the Panthers are an interesting side right now. While the core of the roster remains largely intact, their are six skaters gone from the combination compared to the unit they used during last year’s Cup Final. They have played to an expected goal share of just 47.23% over the last ten games, and hold a goal differential of -7 in that span.
Chances are we will see the Panthers stabilize moving forward, as all of their truly elite talents are still on the roster and near their true-primes. From a betting perspective they have clearly been overvalued in a number of recent matchups though, and for the time being it seems dicey to back them when they are still being power-rated as one of the top teams in the league.
One unexpected concern has been the play of Sergei Bobrovsky in goal, who has struggled to an .885 save percentage and -5.7 GSAx rating this season. His elite form over the last two seasons suggests he will find better form soon, but goaltending is always tough to project and we have seen plenty of elite goaltenders struggle for lengthy periods of time.
Jonah Gadjovich is listed as day-to-day and is the only Panthers skater on the IR.
Best Bets for Leafs vs. Panthers
This sets up as a really interesting time for these Atlantic division rivals to face off, as the Panthers haven’t played at their highest level recently but get a great opportunity to make a statement in this spot. The defending champs’ likely have more to give and will surely be up for this one, but it still seems like they are getting much credit still for what they achieved last season looking at the prices in this matchup.
The Leafs have been playing at an elite level defensively for a meaningful sample, and continue to receive tremendous play in goal. Those strengths give them a great chance to win any matchup, and should give them a solid chance to steal this matchup as underdogs. While top forwards like Matthews and Knies won’t be replaced, some of the Leafs injuries are likely being overvalued in the market.
I’m happy to back the Leafs at this kind of price right now and see this game as more of a coin-flip. At +115 or better I see value backing the Leafs. I’ll also note that the under also looked to hold strong value with some surprising 6.5’s on the board at open, but the market looks to have corrected.
Best Bets: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline +120 (Play to +115)
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