Taking the right players in the early rounds of a fantasy draft is important, but who you select in the mid-to-late rounds often defines your team’s success. Having good sleepers on your radar is an important tool for the latter stages of the draft, but before we dive into who you should have on your sleeper list, we should first define what we’re talking about when we say “sleeper.”
What a sleeper is might seem obvious to many sports fans, but the term gets a little vaguer when you have to explain the difference between a sleeper and a breakout candidate — which is important in this case because there’s also a breakout candidate article. While there can certainly be some crossover, in general, a breakout candidate is set to reach new heights, usually for the first time in their career, while a sleeper might have already demonstrated what he’s capable of, but for one reason or another, he’s lagged expectations for a meaningful time.
Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida Panthers
Taken with the No. 1 overall pick in 2014, Ekblad has had an interesting career. In terms of raw offensive output, he’s never reached the heights of Victor Hedman, Roman Josi or Cale Makar. In fact, he’s only surpassed the 40-point mark twice in his 10-year career, though he excelled in 2021-22 with 15 goals and 57 points in 61 contests. More recently, he was limited to 18 points in 51 regular-season appearances last year due to injury and because he was playing a more defensive role with somewhat limited power-play responsibilities. However, with Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson gone, Florida might ask Ekblad to serve on the top power-play unit and shift to a more offensive mindset. If he can stay healthy, which has been a recurring issue for Ekblad, he has the potential to make this one of his best campaigns.
Patrik Laine, LW, Montreal Canadiens
Laine was taken with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft behind Auston Matthews, and in the early days, it looked like that was going to make for quite the rivalry. Both are superb goal scorers, but while Matthews has reached the 60-goal milestone twice, including his 69-goal 2023-24 campaign, Laine has provided under 30 markers in each season since 2018-19. Inconsistency has been a problem for Laine, as have injuries. Still, he’s not too old at 26, and he’s getting a fresh start in Montreal after being dealt by the Blue Jackets on Aug. 19. Will he turn things around or even stay healthy enough to get the chance? There’s no way to know for sure, but given that he should be a member of a very potent top power-play alongside Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield, this is as good of a chance as Laine has had in a while to recapture his former glory.
Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Colorado Avalanche
Landeskog is arguably not a sleeper candidate, but he’s an interesting enough case to warrant featuring in this list. Before he got hurt, Landeskog had established himself as a strong two-way center who could score, set up his teammates, win faceoffs and play a gritty game. However, he’s missed the entirety of the past two campaigns and won’t be available for the start of 2024-25 because he hasn’t fully recovered from his knee injury. While there’s no timetable for his return, Landeskog is expected to play at some point this campaign. At the age of 31, he’s still young enough for an effective comeback and is someone you don’t want to forget. The Avalanche captain would be a draft-day steal if he rekindles his former glory.
Reilly Smith, RW, New York Rangers
Smith had some great campaigns in Vegas’ early days, providing 68 goals and 167 points in 212 regular-season contests across his first three seasons with the franchise, which translates to 26 goals and 65 points per 82 games. He’s been somewhat inconsistent since and is coming off a down year with Pittsburgh in which he recorded 13 goals and 40 points in 76 appearances. However, after being dealt to the Rangers over the summer, Smith is penciled in to play alongside either Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad or Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. Either duo would present the 33-year-old Smith with a golden opportunity that might result in him seeing a significant increase in offensive production.
Ilya Samsonov, G, Vegas Golden Knights
Samsonov’s career has been a roller coaster. Originally selected by Washington with the No. 22 overall pick in the 2015 NHL Draft, he at one point looked like the Capitals’ future, but after a strong rookie showing in 2019-20, he crashed to the point where he wasn’t even given a qualifying offer in the summer of 2022. Toronto took a chance on him, and he thrived in 2022-23 with a 2.33 GAA and a .919 save percentage in 42 contests before collapsing again last season — at one point even being briefly sent to the AHL. Still, there’s reason for some cautious optimism this year. He’s joining Vegas, which has a great defense, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get significant ice time behind Adin Hill, who has never appeared in more than 35 contests and has a noteworthy injury history. Samsonov also tends to bounce back, even shining at times in 2023-24. As a pickup in the later rounds, he’s not a bad option to roll the dice on.
Victor Olofsson, LW, Vegas Golden Knights
Samsonov isn’t the only player joining the Golden Knights with something to prove. Olofsson signed a one-year, $1.075 million contract with Vegas after recording seven goals and 15 points in 51 contests with the Sabres last season — a far cry from his career-high 28 goals in 2022-23. Reaching the 28-goal mark probably isn’t in the cards for Olofsson given that he accomplished that while setting a career-high 17.4 shooting percentage, but this might end up being the 29-year-old’s best season in terms of points, topping his previous high of 49 points in 2021-22. Cap constraints have left Vegas a little thin on the wings, which has opened the door for Olofsson to play alongside Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev. Given that Olofsson already has a familiarity with Eichel from their Sabres days, this could work out very nicely, especially with Olofsson fighting to prove he still has a place in the NHL after a disastrous campaign.
Tanner Jeannot, LW/RW, Los Angeles Kings
At the very least, you know Jeannot is going to be a good source of PIM and hits so long as he stays relatively healthy. Even while logging just 55 regular-season games with Tampa Bay in 2023-24, he still managed to record 75 PIM and 211 hits. The bigger question is if he can provide anything of note offensively. He failed to reach the 20-point mark in each of the past two seasons, but he showed some scoring potential in 2021-22 with 24 goals and 41 points across 81 outings with the Predators. Now with the Kings, he might rekindle some of that offensive prowess. The Kings are deep down the middle, which should result in Jeannot seeing regular minutes alongside either Quinton Byfield or Phillip Danault, even if the 27-year-old serves primarily on the third line. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a modest uptick in ice time compared to his average of 12:01 in Tampa Bay last season. None of this is to suggest he’s going to suddenly become a great scorer, but crossing the 30-point mark isn’t out of the question, and given what else he brings to the table, that jump in production is enough to make him a nice grab in certain leagues.
Sam Montembeault, G, Montreal
Montembeault would also arguably fit the bill as a breakout candidate, but regardless of what term you want to use for the 27-year-old netminder, he has the potential to be a great value pick this year. With a 16-15-9 record, 3.14 GAA and .903 save percentage in 41 contests last season, Montembeault doesn’t look appealing at first glance, but the team in front of him was the problem. In terms of Goals Saved Above Expected, Montembeault has been strong in each of the past two campaigns, so he’d likely be coming off a pair of solid seasons if he had been playing for a decent squad. With Montreal in a position to potentially take a meaningful step forward this year thanks to the continued growth of its young core, coupled with the addition of Laine, Montembeault might finally see some of the rewards that typically come with strong play.
