As the 2023-24 NHL season approaches, it’s time to make some predictions about the defending champions Vegas Golden Knights.
With barely any roster changes, the Golden Knights will be coming in as one of the most dangerous teams in the league. While the team’s success is most important, some players could reach individual milestones that could be just as exciting to watch for. This will also be a pivotal moment in the Golden Knights’ history, with some important contracts expiring at the end of the season as well.
Here’s a look at some of my best predictions for the upcoming season.
Jack Eichel Hits 100 Points
The closest Jack Eichel has come to reaching the 100 point mark was in the 2018-19 season as a member of the Buffalo Sabres when he had 82 points in 77 games. He was on pace for 94 points the following season before he struggled with injuries yet again, leaving him with 78 points in 68 games and an eighth-place finish in Hart Trophy voting.
Eichel was second in ice time among Golden Knights forwards (with over 50 games played) last season, averaging 18:46. That number will likely see a slight uptick this season with the loss of Reilly Smith, but head coach Bruce Cassidy’s distribution of ice time has proven to work well with no forward averaging over 20 minutes, which might play a role in how many points he scores.
Sixty forwards (with over 50 games played) averaged more ice time than Eichel in 2022-23, including the only 10 players to score over 100 points:
- Connor McDavid: 156 Pts (22:23 TOI/GP)
- Leon Draisaitl: 128 Pts (21:44 TOI/GP)
- David Pastrnak: 113 Pts (19:34 TOI/GP)
- Nikita Kucherov: 113 Pts (20:08 TOI/GP)
- Nathan MacKinnon: 111 Pts (21:08 TOI/GP)
- Matthew Tkachuk: 109 Pts (20:26 TOI/GP)
- Jason Robertson: 109 Pts (18:50 TOI/GP)
- Mikko Rantanen: 105 Pts (22:13 TOI/GP)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 104 Pts (19:48 TOI/GP)
- Elias Petterson: 102 Pts (20:33 TOI/GP)
While ice time is clearly a factor, it’s more important to note that Eichel isn’t relied upon to carry his team’s offensive load like many players on this list. The Golden Knights were so successful because of their depth and their defensive abilities, which is a winning game plan, but it isn’t the type of environment that will often produce 100-point players.
With the addition of Ivan Barbashev at the trade deadline, the Golden Knights’ top forward unit reached another level of offensive dominance. They outscored their opponents 27-12 at 5-on-5, including a 14-4 run in the playoffs, with Eichel recording 49 points through the 43 regular-season and playoff games after Barbashev joined the team. If that line sticks together for an entire season, there’s no limit to how much offense Eichel could provide for the team.
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However, the major factor that has held him back is his health. He hasn’t played a full 82-game season yet, and regardless of the signs that prove he can take his offensive game even further, his availability will ultimately determine if he can reach reach this milestone.
Golden Knights Lose Chandler Stephenson
The 2024 offseason is going to be pivotal. Four crucial forwards – Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson, Michael Amadio, and William Carrier – will become unrestricted free agents next summer, and they will all likely want significant raises. Despite that the salary cap is expected to increase by as much as $4 million, it will be tough for management to retain all four of them, especially Stephenson.
Stephenson has exceeded all expectations since he was traded from the Washington Capitals in 2019 for a fifth-round pick. After signing a four-year, $11 million deal in 2020, he’s logged 164 points in 211 games, earning himself his first career All-Star appearance last season and solidifying himself as a top-six center alongside Mark Stone.
If he’s able to put together a third consecutive season with over 60 points, the 29-year-old could demand an annual salary between $5 million to $6 million, and maybe even more on the open market.
Re-signing Marchessault will be the top priority for general manager Kelly McCrimmon next summer. Despite his age, Marchessault is a proven playoff performer who has unlocked Eichel’s potential as an elite first-line center – Eichel is signed for the next three seasons as the team’s highest-paid player.
However, you could make an argument for keeping Stephenson over Marchessault. Stone is at his best with Stephenson centering his line, and Stone’s contract expires in the 2026-27 offseason. If the organization wants to get the most value from their aging captain over the next few seasons while also spending less money, re-signing Stephenson might be the better decision.
Both decisions can be justified, but it’s tough for me to see the team lose their Conn Smythe Trophy winner and arguably their best goalscorer for the final few seasons of his career in favor of re-signing a playmaking center – an asset that would be much easier to replace in the future.
Logan Thompson Reclaims Starting Role
There was a lot to like about Logan Thompson’s rookie season with the Golden Knights. He put together a 21-13-3 record with two shutouts and a .915 save percentage (SV%), earning himself an All-Star selection and making him one of the leading candidates for the Calder Trophy before he sustained a leg injury in February, which kept him out for the rest of the season.
As for Adin Hill, his 27 starts were the most he’s had in a single season, making it somewhat of a gamble for the Golden Knights to invest nearly $5 million in him over the next two seasons. His incredible run during the Stanley Cup Playoffs earned him a well-deserved raise, but it could look bad on the organization if he isn’t able to live up to the expectations he’s set for himself as a bonafide starter, which he’s never been in his career.
He did everything the Golden Knights asked for throughout the playoffs, but it’s hard to determine how much of their success can be attributed to his play, given the remarkable defensive core in front of him. As I mentioned earlier, the team’s system allows for certain players to thrive over others, and it was the perfect environment for Hill to succeed while also not being asked to do too much.
Related: Golden Knights Bet Big on Adin Hill’s Playoff Run
With an aging defensive core and a lack of regular-season experience, it’s possible that this season could be more demanding for Hill to hold on to the starting role. The Golden Knights won’t have the cap flexibility to run a four-man rotation as they did in 2022-23, and they won’t be able to handle inconsistent goaltending, making Thompson a safe option to take over the role if things aren’t working out.
It’s not easy to make this argument about a goaltender who just won the Stanley Cup and led all goaltenders in the playoffs with a .932 SV%, but there should be a healthy level of skepticism that comes with such an improbable rise to stardom.
Even if you don’t agree with these predictions, there are clearly a ton of intriguing storylines to follow this season. Some of these will build legacies, while others could define the Golden Knights’ future for seasons to come, and it’s only a matter of time before we find out.
