2023-24 is the season of coaching changes. With the Columbus Blue Jackets included, six teams have replaced their head coach since the season started with the most recent hire coming from the New York Islanders, who hired Patrick Roy on Jan. 19.
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This season has also been the one with a wide-open Hart Trophy race, a two-player contest for the Norris Trophy, and an unpredictable Vezina Trophy running. The Hart Trophy is a noticeable change from previous seasons; it was Connor McDavid’s to lose and often, he wouldn’t give up the award.
Nineteen teams are averaging three goals per game or more, a sign that offense and scoring are up. The league has been trending in this direction for years, and this season’s scoring surge isn’t unusual.
This season has provided a lot of unique lessons and insights into the NHL. As the season passes the halfway point, let’s look at some of the lessons from 2023-24 so far.
1. Defense Still Wins Championships
Three of the best teams in the NHL are the Boston Bruins, Vancouver Canucks, and Winnipeg Jets. All three teams have lights-out defenses as they allow 2.61 goals per game or fewer. Likewise, the Florida Panthers, who reached the Stanley Cup Final last season, have a top-five defense, allowing 2.61 goals per game. And just outside the top five is the Vegas Golden Knights, who are one of the best teams in the Western Conference after winning it all last season, allowing 2.72 goals per game.
In a league where offense has taken over, the teams that invested in their defense have had the most success. The top-five units in the league have doubled down on their blue line and it’s paying off. The Jets looked like a team poised to regress after they parted with longtime forward Blake Wheeler and star center Pierre-Luc Dubois in the offseason. The decision to focus on the defensemen and more importantly, slow games down to help out their goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has made them one of the best teams in the Western Conference.
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While having elite two-way defensemen helps, it’s a luxury and not a necessity, and the teams with great defenses have skaters who can eliminate opponents in the defensive zone. Gustav Forsling has 4.6 defensive point shares as a top-pair skater for the Panthers and the Bruins have Hampus Lindholm and Brandon Carlo combining for 6.1 defensive point shares. The Bruins have a two-way defenseman who makes a difference at the point but the skaters making a difference are Lindholm and Carlo, who shut opponents down near the net.
A lot of great defenses have an elite goaltender in the net as well but this season has proved that there’s only so much an elite goaltender can do to help out a unit. Ilya Sorokin is having a respectable season with the Islanders yet facing 1,175 shots, he’s struggled to shut down opposing offenses. John Gibson suffered the same fate for years with the Anaheim Ducks’ defense giving him minimal help and despite his best efforts, the team continues to allow a surplus of gals on a nightly basis. The note of goaltending leads to the next lesson this season has provided.
2. Goaltending Continues To Raise The Floor
A handful of teams expected to compete for the Stanley Cup have unraveled because of their goaltending units. The liabilities in the net have set teams back and forced them to either climb back into contention or have left them out of the playoff picture altogether.
The New Jersey Devils entered this season as one of the favorites in the Eastern Conference as they finished 2022-23 with a 52-22-8 record which was second-best in the Metropolitan Division. Vitek Vanecek looked sure to hold down the fort but with a .883 save percentage (SV%) and a 3.28 goals-against average (GAA) on 712 shots with a negative-14.3 goals saved above average (GSAA), he’s been a weak link in the net. To make matters worse, Akira Schmid, who was hoping to emerge as a reliable young goaltender for the Devils, has struggled and ultimately was sent down to the American Hockey League (AHL) because of it. The team was hoping for baseline goaltending with an otherwise star-studded roster and the struggles have kept them in the middle of the Metropolitan Division throughout the season.
The Carolina Hurricanes have recently found their footing and have climbed up to the top of the Eastern Conference. Until recently, the goaltending woes looked like they would doom their season. The defensive unit was still a strength with Jaccob Slavin, Brady Skjei, and Brett Pesce leading the way, but opponents would fire shots that could’ve easily been stopped that would find the back of the net. Antti Raanta’s rough season eventually hit rock bottom when he was sent to the AHL and the Hurricanes have seen steady play since his call-up along with backup Pyotr Kotchetkov, helping the team put together a strong season.
The Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, and Ottawa Senators all entered the season with deep rosters and expected to take significant strides in the Atlantic Division. All three teams have struggled to find stability in the net and the goaltending issues have prevented them from taking that step forward.
Elite or even reliable goaltending won’t carry a team to the Cup or the top of the standings. However, it will raise the floor and prevent a team from unraveling. The teams that invested in the position and have stars in the net might not be at the top of the standings, but they are far from the bottom.
3. Secondary Stars Go a Long Way
It seems like a counterproductive strategy from a team-building standpoint to add a star player to a roster at the same position when a great player is already in that position. Instead, the best strategy would be to have talented players in every position. The NHL has proved that a one-two punch at one position can make a team a juggernaut.
The Canucks acquired Filip Hronek at the 2023 Trade Deadline and the move was considered a risky one. They already had a great two-way defenseman with Quinn Hughes leading the unit and a first-round selection was a high price tag for a secondary defenseman. The move has given the Canucks two elite defensemen that has both turned the unit into a strength and helped make the team one of the best in the league. They aren’t the outlier either, a lot of great teams around the league have an elite secondary star.
Nathan MacKinnon leads the Colorado Avalanche on their top line while Cale Makar puts them over the top from the point. They lead the Avalanche but Mikko Rantanen and Devon Toews are the secondary stars who also carry the team. The Edmonton Oilers are a prime example of having a team built on superstars and secondary stars as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl fuel the forward unit, carrying on a tradition started by Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier. The Golden Knights and Panthers, the two teams who played in the Stanley Cup Final last season, have stars leading them in Jack Eichel and Matthew Tkachuk but also great players in Jonathan Marchessault and Aleksander Barkov.
The Toronto Maple Leafs recently signed William Nylander to a new eight-year contract and he’s regarded as the second-best forward on the team behind 2022 Hart Trophy winner Auston Matthews. The deal, while expensive with an $11.5 million average annual value (AAV) is a worthwhile investment for the Maple Leafs, who have a dynamic duo. A secondary star can help carry the weight and more importantly, keep a team competitive, and oftentimes, a team that is too reliant on one star can see their season unravel.
4. Star Power Issues
The Devils look like a completely different team when Jack Hughes is out of the lineup. He’s battled injuries throughout the season and his absence leaves both the offense and the team as a whole in shambles. They have a lot of firepower in their forward unit yet somehow, the production falls off a cliff when Hughes is out.
The Sabres have seen a similar issue derail their season. The offense goes hand in hand with Tage Thompson, the star scorer who found the back of the net 47 times in the 2022-23 season. He has missed 10 games and when he’s played, he hasn’t been at full strength. Last season, they built their offense around their dynamic scorer and it helped them average 3.57 goals per game but without him as the focal point, they are scoring only 2.91 goals per game.
The Minnesota Wild saw Kirill Kaprizov miss seven games due to injury while Mats Zuccarello, one of the other stars in the lineup, has missed nine games this season. When either skater is out of the lineup, especially Kaprizov, who adds speed and playmaking to the wing, the offense falls apart.
Many teams are built around their best players but it’s concerning when they unravel because of one injury. Great teams aren’t dependent on the health of one skater and this season has proven that from a team-building perspective, it’s vital to have a core of elite players. For the Chicago Blackhawks, this is an issue that could end up halting a promising rebuild as the team has looked hapless without Connor Bedard, their rookie phenom, who has missed multiple weeks with an injury. Looking ahead, it will be pivotal for the Blackhawks to add another star at some point to avoid this happening to them again, especially when they become contenders.
5. It’s a Long Season
Most if not all teams have fallen into this cycle at some point this season.
- The team gets on a hot streak and soars to the top of the standings. They look like an unbeatable team and poised to make a run at the Stanley Cup.
- The team falls into a slump a few weeks later and slides to the bottom of the standings. Everyone needs to be fired and any player with value must be traded to help with a rebuild.
- A three-game win streak helps the team go from sixth place in the division to third or even second place.
This season, this cycle has been common, especially with the winning streaks and collapses that have happened. The Oilers are on a 14-game winning streak while the New York Rangers won 10 of 11 games early in the season to leap into first place in the Metropolitan Division. The Anaheim Ducks had a 14-game stretch where they lost 13 games while the San Jose Sharks lost their first 11 games to start the season and went 1-14-1 from Dec. 15 until Jan. 16.
The bottom line is that the season is a marathon and not a sprint. It’s easy to overreact to every game but with the regular season being 82 games, it’s about how a team looks in the long run or over a larger sample size of games.
Other Lessons From the 2023-24 Season So Far
This season has once again been a reminder of the value of veteran players who set the tone for teams and more importantly keep a winning culture intact. The Tampa Bay Lightning are the team that comes to mind as they’ve had their struggles but Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman have been two leaders in the organization that have kept the team from falling apart. They go about their business and power through the rough times in a way that helps the younger players as they’ve seen these struggles before.
There’s also been a new trend in the coaching hires, with multiple teams replacing their head coaches at some point this season. A few seasons back, a lot of teams were searching for the next young coach who could relate to the players and lead the roster for years to come. The Blue Jackets hired Brad Larsen, the Islanders promoted Lane Lambert behind the bench, and the Oilers hired Jay Woodcroft. Fast forward and all three coaches have been replaced. In the new wave of hires, a handful of teams are looking for an established name to lead them. The Wild replaced Dean Evason with John Hynes and the Islanders hired Roy to replace Lambert.
Are there any lessons that stand out from the season so far? Let us know in the comments section below!
