It’s easy to write a good NHL player off after one or two bad seasons. Whether it’s age curve awareness or a flat-out bad year, hockey fans are often quick to discredit a player with pedigree and label them as “washed up.”
While weighing a player’s past performance too heavily is dangerous in its own right, you can’t discredit it entirely. Below, we’re going to feature five well-known players who are poised to bounce back from their underwhelming 2022-23 campaigns.
After establishing himself as a high-end top-six forward throughout the previous three seasons— combining for 156 points in 171 games — Rust’s production fell off a cliff during the 2022-23 season.
Rust, 30, recorded 46 points in 81 games last season, his lowest point-per-game output (0.57) since the 2018-19 season (0.49). Given that last year was the first of a six-year, $30.75-million pact, it’d be fair to assume Rust will continue to trend downward. However, there’s actually quite a bit of evidence to the contrary.
Rust still generated 5-on-5 offensive chances at an elite level last year, finishing 13th in individual expected goals-for per 60 minutes, according to NaturalStatTrick.com. He was downright snake-bitten last year in all situations, with his shooting percentage dipping below 10% for the first time since his 2015-16 rookie season.
One could argue he was deployed improperly last year. After the Penguins lost Zach Aston-Reese and Evan Rodrigues, head coach Mike Sullivan had Rust averaging 1:35 per night on the penalty kill — a massive increase from the previous two seasons (0:47 and 0:21, respectively). With Pittsburgh revamping its depth this offseason, odds are Rust kills fewer penalties and sees more power-play time – especially with Jake Guentzel set to miss the start of the season.
While Hall’s career had been on a slight downward curve since winning the Hart Trophy in 2017-18, he was still among one of the league’s best wingers entering the 2022-23 season.
However, in the midst of the Boston Bruins’ historic season, Hall was deployed primarily as a third-line winger and recorded just 36 points in 61 games, which made for a career-low 0.59 point-per-game output. That was a far cry from the 0.86 point-per-game pace he had averaged in his previous 761 career games.
Then again, his most common linemates were Trent Frederic and Charlie Coyle. That’s not meant as disrespect to those two — who are both high-end role players — but it provides some context behind his point totals.
Hall enters the 2023-24 season in a prime position to get his production back on track after being acquired by the Blackhawks this summer. The 31-year-old will not only get a chance on a first line and top power-play unit, but he’ll play alongside rookie phenom Connor Bedard, who, if all goes well, is a pretty safe bet to reach the 60-70 point range. Hall’s elite passing ability and vision is perfectly suited for the sharpshooting Bedard.
Deciding to take a one-year, $5.5-million “prove-it” contract with the Maple Leafs could lead to Bertuzzi getting a fat payday next summer.
Bertuzzi is a prime candidate to replace what Michael Bunting brought to the Leafs’ top six over the last two seasons. Bunting — a hard-nosed forward who was relentless on the forecheck — recorded 112 points in 161 games while riding shotgun to Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Bertuzzi, too, is a hard-nosed player, but he’s a much more refined top-six forward.
Last year was a down year for Bertuzzi — who recorded 30 points in 50 games with the Bruins and Detroit Red Wings — but he’s just one year removed from a 30-goal, 62-point campaign and also flirted with the 50-point mark twice before that.
One of the big issues the Leafs had with Bunting last year came when he wasn’t providing enough offense to be in the top six. Bertuzzi, who started training camp alongside Matthews and Marner, can do what Bunting did — fish pucks out of corners and help elite stars maintain possession while playing with an edge — but also contribute offensively.
That’s going to be key for the Maple Leafs – and Bertuzzi, by extension – especially on an odd night when Matthews or Marner struggle.
There’s no denying Klingberg’s game has regressed over the last three years.
He’s still a high-end offensive defenseman — recording 148 points in his last 252 games — but nowhere near the player he was not long ago. Before the 2020-21 season, Klingberg tallied 291 points in 441 career games, ranking him 10th in defenseman scoring since entering the league in 2014-15.
Klingberg entered the 2022-23 season on a one-year, $7-million contract with the Anaheim Ducks, which he signed late into the offseason. In the wake of the signing, Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek reported on 32 Thoughts the Podcast that the Dallas Stars offered Klingberg an eight-year deal with a $7-million AAV during the 2021-22 season, but Klingberg’s camp was pushing for an AAV closer to $8 million. Klingberg went on to change agents.
Last year, Klingberg recorded 33 points in 67 games split between Anaheim and the Minnesota Wild. He recorded four points in four playoff games. Those numbers aren’t terrible but they won’t get you a long-term deal at a cap hit north of $7 million, especially when you’re a liability in the defensive zone.
In Toronto, Klingberg is going to have a prime opportunity to resurrect his career. Not only are the Leafs in need of another blueliner that can contribute offensively but Klingberg, a right shot, adds another dimension to one of the NHL’s best power plays. He’s auditioned on the top unit during training camp.
Assuming Klingberg gets a healthy dose of power-play time, don’t be surprised if he scores 40-45 points.
Last year was nothing short of a trainwreck for the Canucks and that was a big reason why Demko struggled.
In the two years prior, Demko posted a .915 save percentage — tied for fifth in the NHL — in 99 games. His save percentage dropped to .901 last year.
It all started with the Canucks, and Demko, stumbling out of the gate. By December, the Canucks were 9-12-3 and Demko was really struggling, recording an .883 save percentage while backstopping one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL. Things got even worse from there, as a lower-body injury sidelined him until late February.
But once he returned, Demko finished the season on a high note. In 17 games, the 27-year-old netminder posted an 8-4-2 record, a .918 save percentage and 0.52 GSAA/60 — the 11th-best mark of any goaltender during that span.
Vancouver looked like a team capable of contending for a wild-card spot during that late-season stretch and they’re poised to be better defensively after signing Carson Soucy and Ian Cole — two valued stay-at-home defensemen – this summer.
As long as the team in front of him doesn’t unravel, Demko is a solid bet to have a bounce-back season.
