Welcome to the best-of-three segment of the Eastern Conference final.
The series has been wonderful so far, with Tampa Bay and New York splitting the series in half and showing some true hatred for each other. After a sweep out west, this is the true playoff hockey we’re looking for: close, intense and the ability to go either way.
The Rangers head back to Madison Square Garden, where they’ve won all but one game during the post-season. After dropping the last two games, this would be a perfect time to turn the series around and force Tampa’s hand heading back to Florida.
For the Bolts, it’s all about carrying the momentum and continuing to grow with what worked best the past two games, especially Game 4. Tampa’s on the verge of winning its 11th straight playoff series, and they surely know how to get out of a pickle like this.
Let’s take a look at what to keep an eye out for heading into Game 5:
Tampa’s stars need to keep rolling
In the first two games, the Rangers did a tremendous job of limiting Tampa’s scoring punch. In the last two games, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat and Steven Stamkos combined for 11 points with two goals apiece to get the ball rolling and tie the series up.
That was Tampa’s downfall early, that they couldn’t get the big guns moving. Now that they’re rolling again, the Lightning are in good shape. But that has to continue, and after losing both games at Madison Square Garden, they have to look ahead.
Shesterkin has been tremendous in these playoffs and was far from the reason why the Rangers lost back-to-back games. He was 21-6-3 at home during the regular season and 8-1 during the playoffs, with the lone loss being the triple OT game in which he faced just over 80 shots.
One of Tampa’s strengths early on was getting secondary scoring from the bottom six, something that hasn’t been as prevalent in this series. That’s fine as long as the top six can score, but if the Rangers can get all four lines moving again, Tampa will need to answer back.
Panarin, Zibanejad need to be better at even strength
Through four games, Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad are tied for first in Rangers scoring with five points apiece. The issue? Panarin has just one point at 5-on-5, while Zibanejad has two.
It’s not uncommon for top-line players to have a lower expected goals-for percentage if they’re always playing against quality competition, but Panarin’s 31.69 XGF percentage is an abysmal 31.69, while Zibanejad isn’t much better at 34.09. They’re both in the bottom half of shooting-for percentage and sit at 40 percent or below in Corsi-for percentage, indicating that when they’re on the ice at 5-on-5, they’ve been bested by whomever the Lightning have on the ice. Panarin’s play, in particular, has been widely criticized by Lightning fans, especially in his own zone.
Zibanejad is a real threat for the Conn Smythe if the Rangers move on, highlighted by 13 points in an eight-game stretch before Game 4, but the Rangers need him to step up more than ever in the next few games. Thursday would also be a great time for Panarin to play his best game of the playoffs as through 18 games, Panarin has just two multi-game efforts. He’s at 16 points in 18 games, so clearly he’s still contributing, but only seven has come at 5-on-5. He needs to be better.
