The start of the 2022-23 NHL regular season is upon us, and with it, projections for the NHL’s individual player awards and assorted other predictions as well. With input from NHL agents, players, scouts and media, this is one writer’s opinion on who is likeliest to make headlines this year. To reiterate, this is just one person’s perspective; if you want THN’s collective pick to win it all, be sure to subscribe and pick up our 2022-23 Yearbook.
Individual Awards
Hart Trophy (as NHL’s Most Valuable Player)
In The Running: Auston Matthews, Toronto; Cale Makar, Colorado; Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota; Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers
The Winner: Connor McDavid, Edmonton
The Why: Matthews took home his first Hart last season, and his dominance with the puck elevated his all-around game; so long as he’s healthy, Matthews will be in the race for the Hart, but he’s got incredible competition for it. This season, McDavid should be in the hunt to win what would be his third MVP award. The Oilers have got many a fan this season, and McDavid will be front and center for it. He’s still as creative, quick and dependable a talent as there is in the league, and he’s deserving of Hart consideration every year he plays until further notice.
Norris Trophy (as NHL’s best defenseman)
In The Running: Cale Makar, Colorado; Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay; Miro Heiskanen, Dallas
The Winner: Roman Josi, Nashville
The Why: Makar is the odds-on favorite to win his second straight Norris, but hear us out: Josi, at 31 years old, had a monster year on offense, setting new personal-highs in goals (23), assists (73) and points (96), with all those numbers being better than Makar’s last season. Josi is going to be playing on an improved Preds defense corps (thanks to the acquisition of veteran Ryan McDonagh) and Nashville will continue to rely on him in key situations on offense. This award may be Makar’s to lose in the eyes of voters, but Josi is going to deserve consideration for it.
Vezina Trophy (as NHL’s top goaltender)
In The Running: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay; Juuse Saros, Nashville; Thatcher Demko, Vancouver
The Winner: Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers
The Why: Last season, Shesterkin emerged as a true superstar, stealing games for the Rangers they had no business winning and leading them to the Eastern Conference final. He won his first Vezina in 2021-22, and nobody begrudged him for it. He’s going to be part of a Blueshirts team that will be at or near the top of the Metropolitan Division, and that has expectations of a similarly deep playoff run. The Rangers brought in veteran Jaroslav Halak to give Shesterkin more rest heading into the post-season, but as long as he’s healthy, Shesterkin will shine and continue to garner acclaim as a teammate and an individual.
Art Ross Trophy (as NHL’s top point-getter)
In The Running: Connor McDavid, Edmonton; Auston Matthews, Toronto; Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota
The Winner: Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton
The Why: Draisaitl had 15 fewer points than teammate McDavid in last year’s Art Ross race, and the difference came at even strength, where McDavid finished with four more goals and 14 more points than Draisaitl. But there’s no question the soon-to-be-27-year-old Draisaitl has room to grow his game. He played a very similar amount of time to McDavid – both averaging approximately 22 minutes per game – and a slight uptick in shooting percentage from him and/or his linemates (or downtick from McDavid) could be all Draisaitl needs to equal or better McDavid.
Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy (as NHL’s top goal-scorer)
In The Running: Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota; Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton; Kyle Connor, Winnipeg
The Winner: Auston Matthews, Toronto
The Why: Matthews tore up opposing goaltenders with split-second precision and brute force last season, scoring a career-best 60 goals that also broke a long-established Leafs team record. Nothing has changed this past summer – except that the 25-year-old Matthews is now one off-season stronger, smarter and more determined, and if he’s healthier than he was last year, he can score even more times. Our guess? Sixty-four goals for him this year, which should be enough to give him his third straight Rocket Richard Trophy.
Selke Trophy (as NHL’s top defensive forward)
In The Running: Elias Lindholm, Calgary; Patrice Bergeron, Boston; Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis
The Winner: Aleksander Barkov, Florida
The Why: Barkov has won the Selke for two consecutive seasons now, and at age 27, he’s in the prime of his NHL career. Last year, Barkov set a new career-best in goals-scored, with 39 in only 67 games, and he’s once again going to center Florida’s top line. New Panthers coach Paul Maurice is only going to rely on Barkov more than he’s been relied on in seasons-past, and Barkov can handle it. One of the game’s best-balanced talents, Barkov now needs to lead Florida to playoff glory. But as an individual talent, he’s sublime.
Calder Trophy (as NHL’s best first-season player)
In The Running: Matthy Beniers, Seattle; Marco Rossi, Minnesota; Kent Johnson, Columbus
The Winner: Mason McTavish, Anaheim
The Why: Although many have Seattle’s Beniers as their pick for top rookie, McTavish’s chances at winning the Calder are nothing to sneer at. The 19-year-old projects to be playing on Anaheim’s second line, and his linemates, center Ryan Strome and winger Troy Terry, will help him accumulate dozens of points in his first full NHL year. McTavish has produced offense impressively at every level, and the NHL should be no different for him.
Playoff Picks
Eastern Conference playoff teams: Florida, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Carolina, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh, New Jersey
Western Conference playoff teams: Colorado, St. Louis, Minnesota, Dallas, Calgary, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Vancouver
Presidents’ Trophy: Calgary Flames
Eastern Conference Finalists: Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes
Western Conference Finalists: St. Louis Blues, Calgary Flames
Stanley Cup Final/Winner: Carolina Hurricanes over St. Louis Blues
