Finally, the moment you’ve all been waiting for: a new No. 1.
After four consecutive weeks, the Bruins relinquish the top spot, conceding to the Devils who had one more win and a plus-7 goal differential. Both teams suffered just one loss over the past week, and it’s undeniable they’re the two best teams in the league.
The Leafs and Jets enter the top five this week after ranking seventh and ninth, respectively, in the previous week, while the Avs and Stars falter a little bit. Also noteworthy are the Kraken, who climb up the rankings for the fourth straight week thanks to a perfect 4-0-0 record, though it didn’t come without its warts.
The Canes rank outside the top five for the second consecutive week even though their possession numbers are very good and remain strong Cup contenders. The Rangers, meanwhile, fall for the fifth straight week, and their results are starting to get worrisome after ranking in the top five in the first five weeks.
With American Thanksgiving in the mirror, it’s now time to see which teams can get hot at the right moment to grab those coveted playoff spots.
(All fancy stats are 5v5 and courtesy naturalstattrick.com. CF% stands for Corsi For Percentage and xGF% represents Expected Goals For Percentage.)
1. New Jersey Devils (19-4-0, +36. CF% league rank: 2, xGF% league rank: 1)
A 13-game winning streak ended by Matt Murray, of all goalies, but they got right back on track with three straight wins, and they made it look easy. Just chill, y’know?
2. Boston Bruins (19-3-0, +40. CF%: 8, xGF%: 4)
Another winning streak snapped, but Jeremy Swayman has picked up the pieces and guided them to a second win against the three-time champion Lightning in nine days. They have not lost consecutive games all season and remain unbeaten at home.
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (14-5-5, +12. CF%: 16, xGF%: 10)
Really impressive four-game run, all of them on the road and with a depleted defense, too. The panic that was setting in the early months is very much in the rearview mirror, and their November performance is a little reminiscent of last season when they lost only twice to get their season back on track.
4. Vegas Golden Knights (17-6-1, +20. CF%: 22, xGF%: 5)
It was a tough week with losses to the Canucks and Kraken bookended by wins against the Sens and Jackets, which was a lot closer than it should’ve been. But they’re still third in the league in wins, and Logan Thompson should be the front-runner for the Calder.
5. Winnipeg Jets (14-6-1, +15. CF%: 21, xGF%: 23)
Okay, so the Jets beat the Avs and Stars, so it’s only fair to rank them ahead, but, uh, they weren’t that convincing, right? Rick Bowness gets the best results in the ugliest ways. That’s a compliment, by the way.
6. Colorado Avalanche (12-7-1, +16. CF%: 14, xGF%: 19)
It always gets nerve-wracking ranking the Avs this high, because one bad week might force me to drop them way down. They’ve been winning games consistently but also losing ones when they’ve been outplaying their opponents. At full strength, the Avs are going to be dominant, but the problem is that we may not see them at full strength at all this season.
7. Dallas Stars (13-6-4, +22. CF%: 11, xGF%: 18)
The Peter DeBoer bump is real, but losses to the Jets and Avs cast some doubt on the Stars’ ability to win the division. It may not matter if they win this season, anyway, since their current core is locked up and could dominate for years to come. Do you think John Klingberg regrets his decision?
8. New York Islanders (15-9-0, +16. CF%: 24, xGF%: 27)
Splitting that home-and-home series with the Flyers with Ilya Sorokin in net was a bit of a downer and prevented them from going a perfect 4-0-0 this past week. The Isles love playing the dark-horse candidate and they’re emerging as such again this season.
9. Seattle Kraken (14-5-3, +16. CF%: 13, xGF%: 12)
Very impressive display of offense by the Kraken, but nobody is mistaking them for a contender… Or are they? They can’t keep scoring their way out of everything. Martin Jones allowed eight goals for his 12th win to tie last season’s total and did it in 17 fewer starts.
10. Tampa Bay Lightning (13-8-1, +5. CF%: 12, xGF%: 13)
Two losses to the Bruins in less than two weeks and then narrowly escaping Buffalo with an overtime win certainly casts some doubt. They’re just not a deep team anymore, and Andrei Vasilevskiy isn’t bailing them out like he used to.
11. Carolina Hurricanes (12-6-5, +1. CF%: 1, xGF%: 2)
They finally managed to snap their five-game skid, though it’s misleading because four of those losses came via overtime. Rookie Pyotr Kochetkov seems like their goalie of the future and signed a multi-year extension the same year they’re honoring Cam Ward, the OG rookie for carrying them to the promised land. Coincidence?!
12. Detroit Red Wings (11-6-4, +3. CF%: 27, xGF%: 24)
Dylan Larkin might be the most underappreciated superstar in the league, and their only blemish was a loss to the Leafs. It’s been a big turnaround for the Wings, as anticipated after Steve Yzerman emptied the vault in free agency. The Yzerplan lives.
13. Edmonton Oilers (12-10-0, -4. CF%: 19, xGF%: 20)
There’s no rhyme or reason to anything they do, which includes their confounding goalie rotation. Road losses to the Devils and Isles are just more proof that they’re a tier below where they should be. It’s the biggest waste of talent since the crew of the Black Pearl was roped into doing unnecessary sequels.
14. Calgary Flames (10-9-3, -3. CF%: 4, xGF%: 11)
The win against the Panthers was a statement game but, sorry, Huby’s not better. It’s been a frustrating season for Pacific Division goalies to say the least, with Jacob Markstrom starting just once in their past four games.
15. St. Louis Blues (11-11-0, -15. CF%: 28, xGF%: 21)
Craig Berube’s reaction to Jason Robertson’s goal is pure disbelief because a) Robertson’s off-wing snipe was truly a work of art, or b) he just realized the Blues have zero chance this season. Probably both, to be honest.
16. Florida Panthers (10-9-4, -3. CF%: 3, xGF%: 3)
I always have trouble deciding if Paul Maurice is a really good coach or just someone who’s managed to stick around long enough to see some success.
17. Pittsburgh Penguins (11-8-4, +6. CF%: 15, xGF%: 6)
They went on a nice run but now have lost consecutive games for the third separate time this season, and their power play remains anemic. If this is the last dance for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, they need some major heroics to pull it off.
18. Minnesota Wild (10-9-2, even. CF%: 18, xGF%: 16)
The Wild have been searching for that No. 1 pivot from time immemorial, with Sam Steel the latest to get a stab at it. They’ve been appropriately called “the Mild” in the past, and you also can’t spell “mid” without Minnesota Wild, either.
19. Los Angeles Kings (12-9-4, -5. CF%: 9, xGF%: 7)
Analytics are good and talent is there, but the goaltending is not. It’s the one thing they should really look into addressing. They’ve lost six of their past eight.
20. Washington Capitals (10-11-3, -8. CF%: 10, xGF%: 22)
Just when you write them off, they win three of their past four. They’re just three points out of a wild card spot, but honestly, you’re not going to get very far when Dylan Strome is your top center and Sonny Milano is playing in the top six.
21. Vancouver Canucks (9-11-3, -8. CF%: 25, xGF%: 28)
Sorry to say, but the more the Canucks win, the murkier their future gets. The biggest worry right now is if the Canucks get in a playoff hunt and fail to trade or extend Bo Horvat before he hits free agency. He would undoubtedly be the biggest trade piece at this season’s trade deadline.
22. Buffalo Sabres (9-12-1, +2. CF%: 7, xGF%: 17)
The Sabres make a strong case to be higher considering they lost by just two against the Devils and pushed the Lightning to overtime, and they’re the only team with a losing record to have a positive goal differential.
23. Montreal Canadiens (11-10-1, -12. CF%: 20, xGF%: 25)
Wins against the Jackets and Hawks aren’t that impressive, and then they lose 4-0 to the Sharks. They’re competitive, which is great, but it also puts them out of the Connor Bedard sweepstakes, and there’s no question that their focus should be more long-term.
24. New York Rangers (10-9-4, +2. CF%: 6, xGF%: 9)
The Gerard Gallant bump is gone. Despite very good analytics, the Rangers aren’t getting the goaltending they’ve been accustomed to. Jaroslav Halak has not been a good backup for a few seasons now, and losses to the Ducks (!), Oilers and Devils keep them sliding down.
25. Nashville Predators (10-9-2, -11. CF%: 17, xGF%: 14)
Losing two games due to a flood in their home building might be a blessing in disguise because it helped them avoid a back-to-back. The Preds continue to be stuck in limbo. They aren’t quite good enough to compete and warrant a big trade-deadline acquisition to help their playoff run, but they’re not bad enough to tank. It’s literally the worst place to be in pro sports.
26. Arizona Coyotes (7-10-3, -16. CF%: 31, xGF%: 32)
They’ve lost six of their past seven, and the most exciting thing lately is speculating where Jakob Chychrun might end up.
27. Ottawa Senators (8-12-1, -5. CF%: 5, xGF%: 8)
They climb out of the bottom three with wins against the Ducks and Kings, and on talent alone, the Sens shouldn’t be this far down the list.
28. San Jose Sharks (8-13-4, -13. CF%: 23, xGF%: 15)
They lost three straight, including allowing eight goals against the Kraken – it’s a theme these days – and then losing to division rivals Kings and Canucks. The lone bright spot has obviously been Erik Karlsson, whom they might trade.
29. Columbus Blue Jackets (7-12-2, -27. CF%: 30, xGF%: 26)
The Jackets lost four of their past five, but at least the past three losses have been fairly close. They put up a fight most nights, but when you have only one legit top-line forward in the lineup, it’s pretty hard to win games.
30. Philadelphia Flyers (8-10-5, -19. CF%: 26, xGF%: 29)
John Tortorella said prospect Morgan Frost’s play has been up and down like a toilet seat. Allow me to use the same analogy and point out that you put the seat down for a reason, which is coincidentally what the Flyers’ on-ice play has looked like most of the season.
31. Anaheim Ducks (6-15-2, -37. CF%: 29, xGF%: 31)
The Ducks are on pace for a minus-131 goal differential this season, which would be the worst in the cap era. Thank goodness they dream about Connor Bedard when they go to bed at night.
32. Chicago Blackhawks (6-11-4, -26. CF%: 32, xGF%: 30)
That’s seven straight losses for the Hawks, who have won just twice since Oct. 27. Pain.
