The NHL draft lottery pulled the football away again.
All lined up to kick one through the uprights Monday, the league’s resident Charlie Brown, the Blue Jackets, once again fell flat after Lucy (role played by 14 lottery balls) yanked the ball away again at the last second.
The Jackets went into the lottery with the second-best odds (13.5%) and became one of just two teams to drop after the Chicago Blackhawks hopped from the third-best odds to the top spot — where they’re expected to select “generational” star center Connor Bedard on June 28 in Nashville.
More: Columbus Blue Jackets unlucky again in draft lottery, will pick third in 2023 NHL draft
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Where does this leave the Blue Jackets?
Well, they’ll still have good options with the third pick. It just won’t be Bedard and probably won’t be Michigan’s Adam Fantilli either. He’s likely headed to the Anaheim Ducks, the other team that dropped (first to second) thanks to the Blackhawks.
After wiping off the mud from yet another lottery slip-and-fall, the Blue Jackets have a lot of work ahead. Here are five questions related to Columbus picking third in this year’s draft:
What prospects will be left for the Columbus Blue Jackets at third overall?
Bedard is a lock to go first to Chicago, which targeted him all the way back in last year’s draft while trading away multiple players to “tank” for the 2022-23 season. Fantilli is expected to go second, which leaves the Blue Jackets looking for a top center with the third pick.
This draft is loaded at the top with projected top centers, including two who stand out after Bedard and Fantilli.
Leo Carlsson, a 6-foot-3, 194-pound Swedish playmaker is one. Will Smith (6-0, 172), a dynamic scorer for the U.S. National Team Development Program is the other. Carlsson has already played two professional seasons in the Swedish Hockey League, while Smith rocketed up draft rankings while lighting up the scoreboard for the U.S U18 team this season.
Carlsson had 10 goals, 15 assists and 25 points in 44 games for Orebro in his second SHL season, up from 3-6-9 in 35 games as a rookie. Smith dazzled for the U.S., including a 9-11-20 scoring line in seven games to lead his team to a gold medal this spring at the U18 world championship. Smith also had 51-76-127 in 60 games for the U.S. in U18 games plus 15-27-42 in 20 United States Hockey League junior games.
Russian scoring winger Matvei Michkov is another name to discuss, but he’s an undersized winger who’s under contract in the KHL for three more years.
“I can’t emphasize it enough … but we’re going to get a difference-maker,” Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen said. “We’re going to get a player that’s going to change the direction of the franchise. Everybody was obviously hoping for No. 1, but we’re going to get a real good piece that’s going to help us get to the next level.”
![Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen addresses the media about the trades that brought Ian Cole, Thomas Vanek and Mark Letestu to Columbus prior to the NHL hockey game against the Washington Capitals at Nationwide Arena in Columbus on Feb. 26, 2018. [Adam Cairns / Dispatch]](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/sZmRivmfwmnIF21VGgAuDA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTYzMQ--/https://media.zenfs.com/en/the-columbus-dispatch/c8ddb962417023467094cdb9abe23aa8)
Are the Columbus Blue Jackets positioned to trade up or back?
Trading up with Chicago is a pipedream and trading up with Anaheim also isn’t realistic. Trading back a spot with the San Jose Sharks might be something to consider, adding something of value while selecting either Carlsson or Smith fourth, but Kekalainen doesn’t sound interested.
After the lottery, he said the return would need to be “a lot,” to even consider it.
How unlucky are the Columbus Blue Jackets in the draft lottery?
In a word: extremely.
This was the 10th lottery the Blue Jackets have gone into with a chance to land the first pick and their record dropped to 0-10. Not only did they fail to move up, but the added pain was dropping from second to third after one of the worst seasons in franchise history.
They’ll also be haunted by close calls.
One fewer victory and they would’ve finished last in the league instead of Anaheim. Had the lottery played out the same and the Jackets gotten Anaheim’s number combinations, they would’ve gotten the second pick with the four-number combination of 6-8-9-10 that won the second draw.
One more victory and they would’ve gotten the third-best odds to win instead of the Blackhawks, who won the first draw with the number combination of 4-5-9-13.
That number combination was the 696th out of 1,000 on the NHL’s master list. The 697th was 4-5-9-14 and belonged to Columbus. Additionally, the first three numbers drawn out of the bin in the winning combination were 5-13-4, which meant the 9 ball gave Chicago the win. Had that been the 1 ball, it also would’ve been Columbus.
Missed it by that much.
How did ESPN reveal the Columbus Blue Jackets’ fate early?
The NHL did not issue a comment on the ESPN broadcast of the lottery results revealing the Blue Jackets had dropped to third before deputy commissioner Bill Daly revealed their card.
After the Sharks were announced as the fourth pick, former NHL goalie and show host Kevin Weekes declared: “And there’s our first change in the order, with Columbus dropping to third. So, now either Anaheim or Chicago will select first overall.”
The broadcast quickly cut away before returning to finish the results. No mention was made of Weekes’ mistake and Daly acted as if nothing happened, even wishing good luck to Anaheim, Chicago and Columbus. He then opened the envelope for the third pick and pulled out a card bearing the Blue Jackets’ logo.
Kekalainen and John Davidson, the Blue Jackets’ president of hockey operations, were also shown live from the team’s locker room and both were stone faced.
“Well, I think it was pretty evident what was going to happen,” Kekalainen said. “So, yeah, spoiled the moment, I guess.”
The mistake immediately set off conspiracy theorists online who began posting about the lottery being “rigged,” in favor of a big market, “Original Six” team to land Bedard. The reality is the two draws to determine the first and second picks were held earlier Monday evening at NHL Network studios and were witnessed by multiple reporters from independent media outlets.
What likely happened is that Weekes was informed about the order right before the broadcast and erred in letting it slip that Columbus slipped to third.
What NHL stars were selected third overall?
Does Leon Draisaitl or Jonathan Toews do anything for you? How about Henrik Sedin, Jonathan Huberdeau or Matt Duchene?
While the “bust” rate increases with every pick that comes off the board, there is still a high rate of return with third picks in the NHL draft. The Blue Jackets most recently selected Pierre-Luc Dubois third overall in 2016 — one spot behind Patrik Laine, whom he was eventually traded for in 2021.
Of course, the first pick that year was Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews, another “generational” superstar who went to a big market “Original Six” team instead of the Blue Jackets or Winnipeg Jets.
bhedger@dispatch.com
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Columbus Blue Jackets to pick third in NHL draft five questions
