When the Detroit Red Wings acquired Alex DeBrincat from the Ottawa Senators on Sunday, the consensus was clear.
Almost every trade grades article published about the deal agreed the Red Wings should be lauded for grabbing the sniper for the pedestrian return of Dominik Kubalík, Donovan Sebrango, a conditional 2024 first-round draft pick, and a 2024 fourth-round draft pick.
That’s an understandable point of view considering DeBrincat is one of the NHL’s top goal scorers while Kubalík has never topped 46 points, and he’s on an expiring contract. Sebrango played much of his 2022-23 in the ECHL, and the draft picks package is far from overwhelming.
It’s safe to say Detroit avoided an overpay in terms of trade compensation, but it was impossible to know whether it stuck the landing on this deal without considering DeBrincat’s new contract.
The success of any deal for an RFA is tied up in the subsequent extension. Even if the pure compensation side is light, the move can be a flop if a team goes on to overpay the player it has given up assets for.
Detroit has not done that here. The four-year, $31.5 million contract the Red Wings signed DeBrincat to was nothing short of outstanding for the team.
This deal gives the winger a cap hit that is tied for the 48th-highest among NHL forwards, which feels on the light side for one of the league’s top scorers.
Over the last three seasons, DeBrincat’s 100 goals rank 12th in the NHL. Since he debuted in 2017-18, his 187 goals rank 14th. The winger has been labelled a power-play specialist at times, but his ranks in even-strength goals over those time periods are 16th and 20th, respectively. The man puts the puck in the back of the net like few others.
He’s also been exceedingly durable, missing just four games in his career. DeBrincat is available, consistent, and dangerous.
That doesn’t mean he’s a perfect player. The undersized winger (5-foot-8, 178 pounds) is no Mark Stone defensively, and his 2022-23 campaign in Ottawa wasn’t his best.
DeBrincat isn’t as good an overall player as he is a scorer, but scoring is a forward’s most important function — and there are few who do it better. On this deal, the Red Wings get four years of that dependable scoring at a price point that is going to get better with time.
Unlike other deals signed in previous years, DeBrincat’s extension comes in an environment where the cap is projected to rise significantly. Today, his contract eats up 9.4% of the cap, but that should change in the years to come based on projected cap bumps.
For the chart below, we’ve used an average of the projected growth in the next two years to create a 2026-27 cap. Plenty could change between now and then to affect that, but it’s a good baseline to understand what this deal looks like.
DeBrincat’s contract should continue to look better and better in the years to come in a way many recent extensions haven’t due to flat-cap conditions.
The level of risk for Detroit is also remarkably low. The Red Wings are acquiring a player who has been one of the NHL’s most durable players and consistent scorers over the last six years for his age-26 to age-29 seasons.
No players are immune to injury, but DeBrincat is one of the safest bets imaginable, and he’s on a deal that won’t include seasons where age-related decline is a concern. Detroit might’ve liked to have even more term on this contract — and DeBrincat has signed this deal with an eye toward cashing in a mammoth free agent deal — but it’s hard to quibble with this for the Red Wings.
Prying DeBrincat from Ottawa for a middling return was a win for Detroit. Getting him on a deal this reasonable was a coup.
