The Calgary Flames were one of the most confusing teams in the NHL last season.
Following the departure of Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, the new-look squad was a possession juggernaut that ranked second in the NHL in shot share at 5v5 (57.36%) and earned a 55.41% expected goal rate — the third-best number in the league.
Despite its success controlling the play, the Flames were 17th in the league in goal differential (+8), and missed the postseason. There were a couple of reasons for that, the first being Calgary’s NHL-worst shooting percentage of 8.8%.
With Tkachuk and Gaudreau gone, it was worth wondering if the team had enough high-level finishers to produce on offence. Tyler Toffoli was the only guy who scored more than 25 goals, and a number of the team’s highest-profile forwards saw significant declines in their scoring from the previous season.
Elias Lindholm and Andrew Mangiapane managed a combined 39 goals in 2022-23 after lighting the lamp 77 times in 2021-22. Imports Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri came to Calgary fresh off producing 202 points and saw that number shrink to 111 in their debut season with the Flames.
Along with troubles putting the puck in the net, Calgary had difficulties in its crease. After a stellar 2021-22, Jakob Markström put together his worst season as a starter (.892 save percentage) while backup Daniel Vladar wasn’t much better (.894).
The combination of poor goaltending and subpar finishing was a potent cocktail that undid a Calgary squad that had real potential.
In their first game of 2023-24 on Wednesday night the Flames couldn’t have done more to flip the script.
Calgary’s 5-3 win over the Winnipeg Jets didn’t include poor goaltending or scoring frustration. Things couldn’t have gone smoother on either account.
Markström didn’t stand on his head, but he was more than solid, stopping 34 of 37 shots and looking sturdy throughout the game.
On the other end of the ice, the Flames managed five goals — including an empty netter — on 22 shots and got a critical dagger from their top line with less than two minutes left.
Team win despite getting outshot by a significant margin all the time in the NHL — but that really didn’t happen for the Flames last year.
No team produced fewer wins when outshot than Calgary in 2022-23 (7), and there was only one occasion where the team earned a victory shooting fewer than 25 times while their goalie made 30-plus saves. In that game on Nov. 29 against the Florida Panthers, the Flames took more shots (23) and allowed fewer (33) than they did on Tuesday night.
Zooming out a little bit, what Calgary did in their season opener is not a recipe for success they’ll be looking to emulate in the games to come. The Flames didn’t play all that well on Tuesday, particularly in 5v5 situations where they were outshot 23-13, out-chanced 33-10 and produced just 18.56% of the expected goals.
When you perform like that you lose the vast majority of the time. The fact Calgary was able to win isn’t noteworthy because it’s predictive, but rather because this was the sort of victory that was out of their reach last season.
The team’s goaltending and scoring simultaneously underperformed to such a degree that the chances of beating both expectations in a single game were vanishingly small. If Tuesday’s performance is any indication, that might just change this season.
