There may be 52 players with more points than Tage Thompson as the 2023-24 NHL season settles into its second month, but there are only a handful of better offensive threats.
It’s not breaking news that Thompson is a force, considering he’s coming off a 47-goal campaign, but he’s also a high-variance guy thanks to his unusual career path.
When a player produces a 68-point season out of the blue after putting up 35 points in the first 145 games of their career — like Thompson did in 2021-22 — it’s fair to expect regression. Instead, the 26-year-old went in the other direction last season with his 94-point effort, leaving his 2023-24 difficult to project.
Thompson came out of the gate by authoring his worst stretch since November of 2021, tallying a single assist in his first six games while the Buffalo Sabres went 2-4 with just 15 goals scored.
It wasn’t a slump of epic proportions, but it was enough to plant seeds of doubt about whether Thompson could be the engine of an elite offense once again. Even a step back closer to his 2021-22 self would have significant ramifications for the Sabres’ hopes of breaking their 12-season playoff drought.
Over the last four games, Thompson has re-established himself as a menace to opposing defenders and goaltenders with eight points, though.
Thompson isn’t just producing, he’s showing off the diverse offensive repertoire that’s made him a rising star in the last two seasons.
His most impressive goal came against the New Jersey Devils on October 27 when he showed off his rare combination of long levers and smooth mitts.
According to NHL Edge, Thompson’s max shot velocity (100.76 mph) ranks second among all NHL forwards, and only Travis Sandheim has ripped more attempts above 90 mph. Those numbers suggest that the center has a dangerous slap shot, but the puck explodes off his stick in a variety of contexts.
His recent hot streak featured a wrister that went from the blade of his stick to the back of the net in the blink of an eye.
Thompson’s scoring binge even included an instance of the star using his massive 6-foot-6, 220-pound frame to gain position in front for a tip-in goal.
Not many players can show off that many ways to score in such a short period of time, especially while making plays for their teammates as well.
And yet, less than two weeks ago there was plenty of consternation over whether Thompson had what it took to lead Buffalo’s offense — and to what degree his 2022-23 might’ve been a fluke.
Hindsight is 20-20, but this case also serves as a reminder that underlying numbers often tell a more complete picture than raw results in small samples.
In the first six games of the Sabres season, Buffalo outshot its opponents 53-26 with Thompson on the ice. The center also fired off 29 shots in all situations, a huge total to go scoreless with considering the quality of Thompson’s shot — and the fact he posted a shooting percentage of 15.5% over the previous two seasons.
During Thompson’s 5v5 time, Buffalo had an expected goal rate of 63.65%. At that point in the season, no other player on the team was above 56.12%.
Thompson was clearly already doing his thing, the results just weren’t coming. Now they are, and since he broke out the Sabres have scored 4.75 goals per game. It never made much sense to fret over the 26-year-old — or Buffalo’s offense — but early-season overreactions are difficult to avoid.
Now both the player and team are back on track.
Thompson is reinforcing the notion that he’s one of the NHL’s most dangerous players — and the Sabres are starting to look like the club that was such a trendy pick to take a step forward in the offseason.
