There’s no two ways around it — the Vegas Golden Knights are in all sorts of trouble with the salary cap. Entering the off-season, they’ve got just south of $900,000 in cap space with 20 players under contract, not including Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault, who I’m sure is a top priority for Vegas before July 1. With that in mind, they’ll almost certainly lose several important pieces of their core to free agency, like William Carrier, Anthony Mantha, and Chandler Stephenson. Even after that, they’ll need to move some key pieces with significant cap hits in order to combat the impending cap catastrophe that lies around the corner.
Enter the New Jersey Devils, who are itching to bounce back from an abysmal season in which almost everything that could go wrong went wrong. As a team that entered the 2023-24 season with Stanley Cup aspirations, they fell short of the playoffs and have multiple holes in their lineup to fill before regaining the title of a Cup contender. Vegas has many players in their lineup who might be on the move and fill a need for the Devils, so it’s entirely possible that we see a trade between the two clubs.
Vegas Has a Plethora of LHD
The Devils are pretty much set on the right side on defense with Dougie Hamilton, Simon Nemec, and John Marino on the current roster. Beyond that, stud prospect Seamus Casey plays on the right side if the Devils decide to move on from Marino anytime soon. The left side is where the Devils’ hole on defense lies, if there is one. Luke Hughes is an obvious mainstay, but Kevin Bahl was recently traded. There are legitimate questions about the efficacy of Jonas Siegenthaler, the latter of which has endured some rough stretches of hockey in the past couple of seasons. It might be a good idea to ship out Siegenthaler as well to make room for an improvement on the left side, and Vegas could be the team that can provide such an improvement.
Shea Theodore
Sure, the Devils have their fair share of puck-moving defensemen in Hamilton, Hughes, and Nemec, but puck-moving skill on the back end should never go unappreciated, and Shea Theodore is among the league’s best at it. After signing stud two-way defenseman Noah Hanifin to an eight-year, $7.35 million AAV contract, there might not be any room for Theodore on the Golden Knights blue line.
If the Devils were to target a left-shot defenseman, I would personally prefer one that can move the puck up ice with authority, and Theodore certainly fits that bill. There’s no shortage of puck-movers on the right side of defense, with Hamilton, Nemec, and Marino capable of transitioning the puck from zone to zone, but on the left side, that role solely belongs to Hughes. Take a look at Theodore’s microstats below:
As you can see, Theodore’s defensive zone retrieval statistics and zone entry statistics are outstanding. The meat and potatoes of Theodore’s 5v5 game are successfully retrieving the puck from the defensive zone and getting up to a breakout forward as quickly and efficiently as possible. That sounds pretty good for a team that struggled to get the puck out of the defensive zone in 2023-24. Pair that with the fact that his expected goals percentage (xGF%) has surpassed 52.5% in each of the last six seasons, and there’s a tantalizing player to be had here.
In terms of acquisition cost in a trade, Theodore should come at a relatively expensive price point compared to other potentially available players on their squad simply because he’s been a mainstay in their top-four on defense since his selection in the expansion draft in 2017. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vegas ask for the Devils’ 10th overall selection in the 2024 draft if there were to be a deal before the end of the month. If there were to be interest after, I could see the Golden Knights be interested in Seamus Casey and a mid-round pick in a subsequent draft.
Brayden McNabb
It’s long been known that GM Tom Fitzgerald prefers a little beef on the back end — Marino and Nemec are the Devils’ two shortest defensemen at 6-foot-1 — and Brayden McNabb certainly fits that bill at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds. He’s a no-nonsense, defense-first defenseman who has played a somewhat sheltered, bottom-four role in Vegas for his tenure there. If the Devils are looking for a trade-centric replacement for Bahl, McNabb should be on their radar.
He’s played all 82 games in the last two seasons, putting up point totals of 17 and 26 while averaging between 19 and 20 minutes per game. He won’t provide much on offense, but he is a sturdy player in his own zone and while defending the rush. His microstats put him in the 91st percentile for zone entry denials, 74th percentile for puck retrievals in the defensive zone, and 75th percentile for chance prevention on zone entries according to AllThreeZones.
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McNabb saw a significant increase in usage in the first round of this year’s playoffs, playing 21:15 nightly. He tied a career-high in playoff points in a single postseason with five points in just seven games, playing at plus-five in that span as well. Whatever clicked for him after the regular season, perhaps the Devils could channel that into an entire season worth of success. He brings a lot of physicality into his game, regularly leveling his opponents and using his frame to box them out in puck pursuits.
While he would be a solid replacement on the left side, age is certainly a factor, and McNabb is entering his age-34 season. He isn’t a permanent or long-term solution on the blue line, so it’s entirely possible that he isn’t even looked at as a trade target by the Devils’ front office. I do think they should look into it, though, as I anticipate his acquisition cost to be extremely low considering his near-$3 million cap hit and Vegas’ need to get rid of a significant amount of space. I can’t imagine he costs more than a mid-round pick.
Nicolas Hague
If McNabb doesn’t fit the bill for size on the back end, 25-year-old Nicolas Hague certainly does. The 6-foot-6, 240-pound defenseman has remained in a third-pair role with the Golden Knights since he entered the league in 2018 and might be on the outside looking in concerning playing time with the long-term addition of Hanifin. We know Fitzgerald has an affinity for size on the back end, and with Bahl’s departure, there might be even more of a focus on snarl and size.
He’s never been one for points — his career high is 17 — but his two-way impacts are decent for a sheltered defenseman, and there’s still room to grow, considering his age. For a big man, he’s an incredibly good skater, and his impacts show some promise for a breakout — both his offensive and defensive wins above replacement (WAR) were above the 60th percentile for the first time in his career this past season.
He still obviously has some things to work on, but he is a net positive in creating chances for his teammates, putting pucks on the net, and retrieving pucks on his own end. He would also bring some physicality to a squad that generally lacks it, effectively replacing Bahl’s size and skating ability on the third pair. His acquisition cost would also be relatively low. I’d imagine, considering that he’s the odd man out on a team whose left side is stacked and has a couple of solid prospects ready to jump to the NHL. I can’t anticipate him costing more than a mid-round pick.
3C Options
If ever there was a hole on the Devils’ roster, it’s at the third-line center position. In an ideal world, Erik Haula would slide into that position, but there has been a pattern of him floating all around the lineup, and he seemingly plays better while positioned on the wing. With that in mind, and Michael McLeod certainly not returning to the team, the Devils should look to Vegas as a potential trade partner to fill the void.
William Karlsson
Bar-none, the Golden Knights’ best forward, who is presumably available as a product of the cap crunch, is William Karlsson. An original Misfit, Karlsson holds the team record for most goals (43) and points (78) in a single season, both of which came in their inaugural campaign in 2017-18. His production has dipped since his record-holding campaign, but he’s maintained half-point-per-game paces every season, including 30 goals and 60 total points in 70 games in 2023-24. Since the Golden Knights acquired superstar Jack Eichel, Karlsson has played primarily in a middle-six center role, playing his usual sturdy two-way game and effectively shutting down the opposition while contributing in the offensive zone as well.
At $5.9 million annually for three more seasons, “Wild Bill” would come to the team at a hefty cap hit, but it’s well worth the player. He’s sported an xGF% of at least 53.5% in every season since becoming a Golden Knight, including an incredibly impressive 56.59% xGF% in 2023-24. He ranked 7th among all NHL forwards with at least 1000 minutes of 5v5 hockey in offensive expected goals above replacement per 60 minutes (xGAR/60), even ahead of names like Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and Leon Draisaitl. I’m obviously not saying he was better than any of those players, but the point stands that he was among the league’s elite at creating offense.
He is 31 years old, which would be more of a red flag if his contract weren’t only three years long. The acquisition cost of such a player as Karlsson is undoubtedly hard to put a finger on, considering that he is an excellent player and that the $5.9 million in cap relief would go a long way for Vegas regarding retaining key depth. I would have to imagine that, with the Devils’ first-round pick in 2025 now gone, a starting price would be a 2025 second and a good prospect or young NHLer — think Chase Stillman or Nolan Foote. If a high-profile prospect like Casey were involved, I have to think a little more would need to be added to convince Golden Knights GM Kelly McCrimmon to send Karlsson over. Either way, he should undoubtedly be on the Devils’ radar for a potential medium-term solution at the third-line center position.
Nicolas Roy
Another Golden Knights’ center with three years left on his current contract, Nicolas Roy‘s deal comes in at a much more manageable $3 million AAV. He, like Karlsson, excels at the defensive side of things, though Roy admittedly has a significantly lower offensive ceiling. He’s enjoyed three consecutive seasons with at least 30 points, culminating in a 2023-24 season in which he had a career-high of 41 (13 goals, 28 assists) in 70 games. This spike in his production directly correlates to increased time on ice, with Roy having increased his nightly TOI from around 11 minutes to about 16.
Roy’s 52.66% xGF% places at 6th best on the team among players with at least 40 games played, thanks mainly to his expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) of 2.15, which is barely second-place among forwards behind Karlsson (2.14). His defensive game is outright elite, excelling in just about every tracked defensive statistic:
All in all, there really isn’t much to dislike about Roy’s game. His defensive prowess speaks for itself, and his offensive microstats are incredible, considering the relatively low amount of points he’s put up in his career. He ranks in the 99th percentile for forecheck pressures per 60 minutes, which, when matched with his gigantic 6-foot-4, 202-pound frame, in and of itself should be a reason for the Devils to look at him as a filler for the third-line center role. I doubt he costs much to acquire, too, considering that he’s a somewhat unknown player and would significantly help the Golden Knights in their quest to fight their cap situation. I’m picturing a third-round selection as a fair price.
Pavel Dorofeyev
Pavel Dorofeyev is in a fascinating spot because he is the sole expiring restricted free agent (RFA) on the Golden Knights’ NHL roster. He appeared in 47 games this season — one marred by injuries — but still managed to post 24 total points, including 13 goals. Hockey pundit Frank Seravalli had mentioned that he might be a cap casualty for the Golden Knights if they decide to put their money elsewhere.
Dorofeyev’s game has quite a few holes, to be honest — he’s not a great player in transition, and he can struggle to cycle the puck around in-zone — but he is an effective player at retrieving the puck in the defensive zone, and providing and capitalizing on high-danger chances. At 23, the Russian winger has plenty of room to grow into a solid 20-goal, 40-50-point middle-six contributor. His defensive game is mature, and his offensive ceiling is relatively high, considering his above-average skating ability and hockey sense.
Regarding acquiring Dorofeyev’s rights, I can’t anticipate it’ll cost much. Ultimately, Dorofeyev’s fate with the Golden Knights relies entirely on what they decide to do around him first, considering that Vegas holds his rights and thus can leave a good bit of time before deciding on his future with the team. That does mean that if he is made available, it will likely be for pennies on the dollar. I would anticipate the asking price to be something like a third-round pick.
Devils Would Be Wise to Target Vegas Players
It’s clear that the Devils and Golden Knights are a match made in trade heaven. The Devils’ holes are filled by players that the Golden Knights will likely have to move on from, and Fitz would be out of his mind to ignore a trade partner tribulating in this much cap trouble. After all, the prices would certainly be to the Devils’ benefit, and the players who may be available are significantly better than leaving the holes to either free agency, where the contracts will be overinflated, or to minor-league talent that can and will be outclassed at the NHL level. Plus, the Golden Knights’ roster is chock full of Stanley Cup-winning pedigree, and who doesn’t want that?
