The Buffalo Sabres took a step back after barely missing the playoffs in 2023, finishing seven points out of the final Eastern Conference wildcard spot with a 39-37-6 record (84 points). The regression cost head coach Don Granato his job and put more pressure on GM Kevyn Adams to snap the league’s longest playoff drought of 13 seasons.
Adams brought back veteran head coach Lindy Ruff to stress accountability and has made trades and free agent signings to remedy the Sabres depth and defensive issues, but the question now is whether they are as good or better than their competition in the Eastern Conference.
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The Tampa Bay Lightning weathered the early-season absence of goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to make the playoffs for the seventh straight season, but after making the Stanley Cup Final three straight times (and winning twice), John Cooper’s crew bowed out in the first round for the second straight year. GM Julien Brisebois faced his annual cap crunch going into the summer, and after re-acquiring veteran blueliner Ryan McDonagh from Nashville and signing free agent Jake Guentzel, he sent Mikhail Sergachev to Utah for JJ Moser and prospect Conor Geekie, traded winger Tanner Jeannot to Los Angeles, and most importantly lost team captain Steven Stamkos in free agency.
Forwards
The Lightning finished fifth in NHL scoring with 291 goals (45 more than Buffalo) last season, with All-Stars Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point scoring over 40 goals. The hope is that former Penguin Guentzel can replace Stamkos’ output. Tampa Bay is essentially a two-line team, with Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Nick Paul making up the top six. Their bottom-six is a hodge-podge of inexpensive veterans, such as former Flyer Cam Atkinson, and former Sabres Conor Sheary and Zemgus Girgensons.
The additions of Ryan McLeod, Jason Zucker, Beck Malenstyn, Sam Lafferty, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel give Buffalo a better third-and-fourth line, but Tampa Bay has fewer question marks in the top-six, which gives them a slight edge over the Sabres.
Defense
Victor Hedman is still one of the best defensemen in the NHL at 33 years old after scoring 76 points last season. McDonagh at 35 is an excellent defender, with Erik Cernak providing size and physicality, but the depth on defense has declined with the departure of Sergachev, who was injured for over half the season. Moser averaged 28 points in the last two seasons with Arizona, while Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh make up their bottom pairing.
Hedman is a more mature and better two-way version of Rasmus Dahlin, but the Sabres have better depth and a slight edge with Owen Power, Bowen Byram, Henri Jokiharju, and Mattias Samuelsson.
Goaltending
Vasilevskiy had an uncharacteristically average season (30-20-2, 2.90 GAA, .900 sv %), which in part was due to coming back mid-season from back surgery and also due to the club’s defensive struggles. Backup Jonas Johansson played 26 games and kept the Lightning from falling too far behind in October and November, posting a 12-7-5 record. If Vasilevskiy returns to prime Vasilevskiy, then he is one of the top-three goalies in the NHL, but doubts of his being able to return to that performance level limit the advantage that Tampa Bay has over Buffalo, with the tandem of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen coming off his first excellent campaign, and Devon Levi.
Outlook
Tampa Bay’s fate rests on Guentzel being able to score 35 to 40 goals, Vasilevskiy returning to top form, but most importantly proving that they can be good to great without Stamkos, who has been their leader since being drafted first overall in 2008. If they do that, they will battle Boston, Florida, and Toronto for one of the top three spots in the Atlantic, but more than likely they will be in the top end of the bubble group of five or six teams along with the Sabres battling for the Eastern Conference wildcard spot.
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