The TLN Maple Leafs prospect rankings were compiled by a panel of seven TLN writers, each ranking our top 20 prospects to form a consensus group ranking.
Rather than hard and fast limits on age or NHL games played to determine “prospect” eligibility, our group decided on a more nuanced approach to include any reasonably young player who is either under contract with the Leafs or on the club’s reserve list, who has not yet established himself as a full-time NHLer.
It’s been a while since the Leafs drafted a Czech player. The last one was Filip Kral in 2018 and you have to go all the way back to 2006 and the selection of Jiri Tlusty as the last time the Leafs drafted a Czech player who was playing for a Czech team. All of that points to the selection of Miroslav Holinka being a little unexpected, but a selection that made the TLN rankers excited enough to include Holinka in his first eligible year for our rankings, despite being a 5th round selection.
Miroslav Holinka has a lot going for him just from his vitals and basic stats to establish some of that initial excitement around him. The fact that he’s a centre is a welcome addition to the Maple Leafs system, as too many of Toronto’s prospects are either wingers, to begin with or come with the asterisk of having to be moved to the wing when they hit pro hockey. Holinka’s game will emphasize keeping him in the middle and that addresses a need. There’s also the fact that Holinka is a right shot and adding a right shot centre to the organization is a beneficial move given the limited supply there.
Holinka’s also got decent size at 6’1 and 185 lbs. He’s already seen more defensive situation minutes in his career because of his frame being filled out better than most 18 year olds, and having that defensive skill set and being used in more physical situations opens a lot of doors for Holinka who might see a faster track to pro hockey as a result of his size and play.
The numbers on Holinka are pretty darn good too. In 29 games in the Czechia junior league, Miroslav potted 20 goals and finished the year with 41 points. His international play and “best on best” numbers are equally strong as Holinka picked up 10 points in 7 games at the U-19 and U-20 levels last year before starting the summer friendly schedule this year with a 3 goal in 3 game performance.
The cold water is Holinka’s numbers in the Czech Extraliga. Holinka had 3 points in 16 games but this is a pretty normal thing for a young player. Believe it or not, professional teams around the world follow the same practices as North America and getting more than 10 minutes a night was a rarity for Holinka. The fact that he got this taste of pro hockey is encouraging and that it was a 16 game stint (Fun fact: Holinka was playing on a team with Martin Marincin and Richard Panik). In Jiri Tlusty’s draft year he played 44 games in the Extraliga and had 10 points. That was good enough to make him a first round selection. That’s not to say that extrapolating out the games means that Holinka could be a first round quality player or that Tlusty was in a fact a 5th round quality player, it’s just a fun reminder that it is more about the skills the player demonstrates at this point than the numbers they put up.
Miroslav Holinka (@MapleLeafs) scores his third goal at the U20 tournament in Finland. pic.twitter.com/7xXALGtR6b
— Czech Prospects (@CZprospects) July 22, 2024
Holinka’s shot shows some promise, and he’s capable of controlling the puck at both ends of the ice. Though not used in the penalty killer role on his Extraliga team, Holinka was used as a penalty killer everywhere else he played and that seems like an area the Leafs will want to build on.
The consistencies in the numerous scouting reports on Holinka are that he is smart, versatile, and can create with the puck in all three zones. And while that sounds very exciting the other consistent theme is that while Holinka is good in a lot of areas, he’s not a standout in any one role and that could be his barrier to success. For that reason, it seems fortunate that Holinka’s next landing spot is with the Edmonton Oil Kings, who have had recent success stories with versatile/all round good players like Jake Neighbours and Curtis Lazar. (That’s not me saying that Holinka is going to turn into Jake Neighbours, just recognition that the Oil Kings have done well with all situation players using two recent recognizable examples of that.)
The transition to North America happening sooner rather than later seems to make sense in this situation. Holinka would likely still be fighting for ice time in Czechia even if he spent more time in the Extraliga. His opportunity to put in work on special teams would be non-existent and it seems like an easy comparison to say the Leafs want him to be a better version of David Kampf. The move gets Holinka significantly closer to the Maple Leafs development team, and for those of us looking to draw meaning from his offensive numbers, it’s a lot easier to understand post draft year numbers in the WHL than interpreting usage and competition levels in Czechia.
Up & Over 🚨 pic.twitter.com/fntTV9PvqE
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) July 7, 2024
Holinka has already been deemed a bright spot at training camp and his time playing Czech pros was appreciated by Hayley Wickenheiser who highlighted his good habits and pro-game pace. Before expectations move up from the next David Kampf to the next Bobby Holik the North American adjustments will need to take place and that’s where the WHL comes in handy. Listed as the Oil Kings’ development coach is Ladislav Smid, who is also Czech. Holinka landing with a development coach who isn’t going to have any language barriers with him is quite the win as well. (Smid is also an Assistant Coach with the Czechia U20 program, so there is already that connection too.)
The 2024-25 season will be about establishing a baseline of expectations for Holinka. He’ll get the opportunity to participate in the rookie tournament and possibly a bit of the Leafs’ camp now that he’s staying in North America and that’s a great start, and he’ll have the platform of the World Juniors again this season to showcase what he can do in a best on best U20 tournament. All of that is great stuff, but knowing who Holinka is on North American ice in junior hockey is equally important to these bigger events. With the Leafs having just seen Fraser Minten in the WHL it will be interesting to see what a player who seems destined for a similar role but lower probability of achieving it can do. Normally when talking about prospects in our rankings the term “make or break” season comes up a lot, but that is absolutely not the case for Holinka. There will likely be some expectation that he continues to build on the momentum he’s shown and that he can make the best of a good situation.
Long term, the ideal usage for Holinka would probably be a 3C type role, though based on his play I’d assume he’d be more likely to emulate Ondrej Kase if he was a centre rather than being another David Kampf, and for a 5th round pick, a healthy centre version of Ondrej Kase would be a stellar outcome. Looking at his the floor of his abilities, Holinka seems capable of being a reliable AHLer and the type of safe callup option when you don’t want to force a defensive liability into a bottom six forward situation. In the grand scheme of things and with the Leafs limited number of prospects at the moment, that’s a pretty good find and not a bad floor to work with either.
Data from Elite Prospects
