A few weeks back I made a case that a youth movement is in the Leafs best interest. Whether players like Easton Cowan or Fraser Minten are ready today or not, any sign that they are ready to be developed at the NHL level should give them a priority roster spot over bringing in a player like Max Pacioretty. All of that was prior to the Leafs signing of Nick Robertson, which adds even greater competition to the Leafs forward group and this is before considering other Leafs like Grebenkin, Steeves, Quillan, and others who might make surprising cases for NHL jobs as well.
The reality is that the situation is in no way as simple as I attempted to lay it out. There are some key factors that need to be considered before blindly accepting or dismissing Max Pacioretty from the Leafs lineup, and while Pacioretty may not be a personal favourite player of mine or a number of Maple Leafs fans and that bias coupled with age may leave some rooting for him to fail, there are two key reasons to be interested in seeing what he can do and potentially welcoming him into the lineup.
The first reason that Max Pacioretty being included in the Leafs camp should be welcomed is that for much of the existence of the Leafs’ core they have played under Sheldon Keefe. This is a clean slate and while the skill sets of the returning Leafs players haven’t changed, how they are deployed could be drastically different. The likely juggling of the Leafs lines may create a gap not anticipated, and assuming that someone like Pontus Holmberg, Connor Dewar, Ryan Reaves, or Easton Cowan might be the right player to fill that spot over someone like Max Pacioretty is premature. Options are always a good thing and when you can bring in someone that can fill a bottom six, limited icetime role and not have anxiety about their lack of icetime stunting their development, perhaps that is a positive.
The other case for Pacioretty is less about how he fares compared to the youth on the Leafs roster but rather some of the veteran bottom six players. Pacioretty’s situation isn’t going to be all that different than the Leafs players on entry level contracts or other heavily discounted deals. Pacioretty has the potential to offer value above his contract and the Leafs need more players like that.
Again with the same acknowledgement that Craig Berube’s arrival can change a lot of things for the Maple Leafs, there is a possibility that players like Calle Jarnkrok, David Kampf, and Ryan Reaves can outplay their cost and offer Toronto value beyond their deal. Kampf and Reaves particularly struggled to add value last season, and Jarnkrok’s injuries complicated his situation. The reality is that Max Pacioretty on a closer to league minimum deal will be a better option for Toronto, and having options like Pacioretty in addition to other high potential for value players like Holmberg, McMann, Knies, Robertson, etc. Toronto could find them in a good place, assuming the stars align.
A lot of this relies on the stars aligning as well as Berube’s coaching. And there has to be at least a little bit of concern about how much the direction of the Leafs will be riding on the bad data that comes out of training camp and the preseason. Last season and the strong showing of Noah Gregor in training camp is an example of what can go wrong in putting too much value in the preseason. And while no one is going to hang the outcomes of the Leafs season on the decision to keep Gregor, the situation did give way to the departure of Sam Lafferty who was perhaps a better option for Toronto last season.
This year the potential for a Nick Robertson vs. Max Pacioretty decision based on training camp could be more impactful and certainly have a longer term effect. Pacioretty outscoring Robertson against AHL defencemen and rusty third string goaltenders might lead to an unfortunate early and undervalued trade. The same argument could be made for choosing Pacioretty over other players as well. The best course forward with Pacioretty might be finding the option that allows the Leafs to preserve their organization depth.
With Allan Walsh, Pacioretty’s agent, framing a contract with the Leafs as being a matter of when not if it gets done this exercise can’t be looked at as a tryout situation. If training camp goes completely sideways for Pacioretty, it could be put back on the table but as Treliving and Walsh have both alluded to, it is best to plan on Max being a Leaf.
