When I sat down to write this the extent of Fraser Minten’s injury wasn’t fully known, and as such my initial excitement about how difficult Minten could make it for Berube and Treliving to cut him has been replaced with the acknowledgment that a speedy recovery so he can quickly get back on track with the Marlies is now the priority for Minten. Nevertheless, as much as I can, I’m keeping what was originally written intact as it best captures what the goals for one of the Leafs’ top prospects should have been before his setback.
It should be exciting to be talking about Fraser Minten again. Last year he was one of the reasons for optimism at training camp and earning a four game tryout with the Leafs was a huge feather in his cap, even if those four games didn’t immediately turn into his NHL story.
The past twelve months have also seen Fraser Minten serve as the captain of Team Canada at the World Juniors. The quarterfinal exit for Canada might put a bit of a damper on that accomplishment as well but considering that Minten was also named captain of the Kamloops Blazers prior to his trade to Saskatoon, there is absolutely something to be said for Fraser being viewed as a leader. The Leafs can always use more of that quality.
Minten’s 38 points in 36 games for Saskatoon might not excite in a draft+2 season, but it is important to remember that offence isn’t going to be the name of the game for Fraser. The plan seems to be to flag him as the Leafs third line centre of the future and do what is necessary to get him there as quickly as possible.
Nick Richard recently did a deep dive on Fraser Minten for The Leafs Nation prospect rankings, where Minten was #2nd on our list. You can read that detailed profile here.
The expectation- Smooth transition to pro hockey
With the number of players on the Leafs roster and a couple of pro tryout agreements the Leafs forward group looks pretty crowded this September. The fact that Fraser Minten was one of the better waiver exempt options at the Leafs’ disposal before his injury and the fact that he no longer has to be returned to junior makes him all but certainly made him destined to be a Marlie in October outisde of his training camp going even above the results that earned him his four game look last season.
The Marlies could certainly use a strong centre and Minten will get playing time there. John Gruden is a strong coach, and the Leafs development staff are second to none, and with a fairly shallow prospect pool, the amount of energy being focused on Minten in an AHL setting will probably be more beneficial than trying to find him 12 minutes a night on the Leafs.
Throughout the year, due to limited centre options on the Leafs, there will be chances for Minten to get his looks in the NHL and it would be a surprise to not see him at least get another small taste of the NHL in 2024-25.
The goal- Finish the season in the NHL
Expecting Fraser Minten to be the Leafs’ 3rd line centre by the end of the season would be a bit much and too ambitious of a goal when you consider that on a deep Stanley Cup contending team you’re looking to bump the 3C down to 4C after the trade deadline because you’ve been upgrading.
That said, Minten is a top prospect that has already shown a lot of promise. Having Minten on the Leafs fourth line at the end of the year so he can potentially be one of those surplus value standout players come playoff time would be ideal for the Leafs. If Minten is someone the Leafs are considering as a potential 3C option for 2025-26, he’ll need to be on the 2024-25 roster.
The Leafs have plenty of supports that they can put around a young centre, especially in a depth role. If Max Pacioretty is offered a contract, he’s certainly an option and players like David Kampf or Calle Jarnkrok (if they are still Leafs at the end of the season) can offer some valued experience and defensive zone support to a player who plays smart hockey but is bound to make a few mistakes while adjusting to the speed of the NHL.
While there needs to be accountability and there isn’t a particular need to rush Minten, there is a danger in moving too slow with a prospect as well and you could be closing the door on their most valuable period of their career if their potential ceiling isn’t too high. As a bottom/middle six forward, Minten isn’t a player you’d want to overripen and if he’s meeting expectations in the first half of the season for the Marlies, planning for him to get work with the Leafs should be a given with the realistic goal that it can turn into a permanent move.
Data from Elite Prospects
