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The TLN Maple Leafs prospect rankings were compiled by a panel of seven TLN writers, each ranking our top 20 prospects to form a consensus group ranking.
Rather than hard and fast limits on age or NHL games played to determine “prospect” eligibility, our group decided on a more nuanced approach to include any reasonably young player who is either under contract with the Leafs or on the club’s reserve list, who has not yet established himself as a full-time NHLer.
It’s not often you look at a random fifth-round pick who hasn’t set foot in North America yet and think “That guy is a future fan favourite”, but that just might be the case with Nikita Grebyonkin.
If you didn’t know who Grebyonkin was, nobody would blame you. The Maple Leafs selected him in the fifth round of the 2022 NHL Draft, 135th overall, from a Russian junior team called Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk. His totals from that season were impressive, registering 17 goals and 64 points in 58 games, but junior totals always need to be taken with a grain of salt whether they’re playing junior in Canada, the United States, Russia, or Sweden. How they stack up against grown men and players ten years older than them is often the first telltale sign of whether they’ll be able to carve out an NHL career at some point.
In Grebyonkin’s case, he did just about everything you could ask for from a 19-year-old. He initially played a couple of games in 2022-23 with Metallurg Magnitogorsk, the parent club of his junior team, but struggled to get regular ice time. As is often the case with European pro teams, the coaches are not concerned with developing players and essentially gearing them up to eventually leave the team and join whichever NHL team has their rights. They are focused on icing the best possible roster night in and night out, just like NHL coaches are, and Grebyonkin didn’t get that kind of an opportunity with Metallurg. He was loaned to a new team, Amur Khabarovsk, which would prove to be the best decision at that stage of his career. He got more ice time and made the most of his increased opportunity, scoring nine goals and registering 26 points in 45 games. His performance was enough to earn him the Alexei Cherepanov Award as the league’s best rookie in 2022-23, and with that came another opportunity with the team he started the season with.
That opportunity had to wait until the following season, but again, the now-21-year-old Grebyonkin made the most of it. Now playing in a heightened role with Metallurg Magnitogorsk, he kept his development on an upward trend with 19 goals and 41 points in 67 games and helped them capture their third-ever Gagarin Cup.
Nikita Grebyonkin, it’s your turn to hoist the Gagarin Cup. 👏 pic.twitter.com/ppb64w1EiW
— KHL (@khl_eng) April 24, 2024
His production saw a little bit of a dip in the playoffs with only six points in 22 games, but again, when the games get important, the veterans will usually draw the longer straw. Even with Grebyonkin’s step back in ice time during the playoffs, the level of production he brought is standard for a player of his age who’s meeting expectations. The Leafs decided to move in on him, signing him to a three-year entry-level contract to take effect in 2024-25, and he’s now expected to bring his talents to North America in 2024-25.
Nikita Grebyonkin (No. 71) finished his sophomore regular season today. Here are all of his goals and notable assists.
Totals (KHL): 67 GP, 19 G, 41 PTS, +12#LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/RaXo0tLH8X
— Kyle Cushman (@Kyle_Cush) February 26, 2024
The reason I called him a fan favourite earlier in the article is because he brings all of the elements that appeal to fans. Standing at 6-foot-2 and 192 pounds, he possesses a unique combination of size, speed, and toughness. His skating is what pops out before anything else, bringing a north-south style as he rushes up the ice and keeps the defencemen guessing his next move, whether that’s a low rebound attempt, a pick of the corner, or a pass to a teammate. He’s more likely to show up on the scoresheet under the assists column but he particularly ramped up his goal-scoring efforts last season with almost as many goals as he had assists (19 goals and 22 assists). Standing at 6-foot-2 and having speed as your main threat is always going to be something that appeases fans, and it’s twice as intimidating for the opposing defencemen when they see that kind of speed barreling at them in the form of a bigger player.
Then there’s the aforementioned toughness. While people love to associate the Maple Leafs of today with a white-collar, country club vibe, the fans have always and will always have a soft spot for players who show up and play like they give a damn. There’s a reason Tie Domi is one of the franchise’s most fondly looked upon players despite never being known for offensive ability. It’s the same reason fans wax poetic about the days of Wendel Clark and Gary Roberts and the same reason Jake McCabe has become a fan favourite since arriving in Toronto. To put it lightly, Grebyonkin will give a damn every time he’s on the ice, and he’ll be mean about it too. He led his team in hits as a sophomore with 67 in 67 games, and he’s not afraid to stand up for his teammates either. Check out this video of him reacting to a questionable hit on a teammate and taking matters into his own hands against the perpetrator.
HOLY MAMA GREBYONKIN CAN THROW ‘EM! 👊#MMG #LeafsForever Nikita Grebyonkin vs #SPR Roman Rukavishnikov 🥊 #KHL pic.twitter.com/Ozfh9PbGHC
— Hockey News Hub (@HockeyNewsHub) November 25, 2023
It’s worth noting that the player he fought in this video, Roman Rukavishnikov, is ten years older and 40 pounds heavier than him. And if you look at his hockeydb page, he looks like the type of guy who would rearrange your face just for looking at him the wrong way. Not only did Grebyonkin initiate the fight, he more than held his own and even got the crowd fired up on his way to the penalty box afterwards. Tell me with a straight face that a good chunk of this fanbase wouldn’t be collectively sitting up in their garages and pumping their fists if he did this to somebody while wearing a Leafs jersey.
It’s hard to predict what Grebyonkin’s trajectory to the NHL is from here because the next step for him is adjusting to North American ice. It would be a complete shock to see him make the Leafs out of training camp, but this year they’ll be able to get a close look at him, and if he impresses in the AHL early on, he could find himself as one of the team’s top call-up candidates. In my personal opinion, he’s one of the closer players to being NHL-ready, largely due to having two years playing pro hockey already under his belt and impressing while doing so. How his defensive game translates to North America is going to be the biggest determining factor on whether or not he gets a look in the NHL this year. To me, he has the ceiling of a top-six forward, but he’s not going to get that opportunity on a platter nor should he. If he gets an NHL tryout this year, he’ll probably be in a bottom-six role with defensive players. What he makes of that opportunity will play a great role in shaping his near future with the Maple Leafs. Think about why Matthew Knies was never sent to the AHL, even when his offensive game dried up. If he’s not playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, he can be just as effective in a bottom-six role. He’s a great example to look at for Grebyonkin in figuring out what he needs to do to capture and retain the attention of new head coach Craig Berube, but before any of that, he needs to prove that he can hang in the AHL.
Overall, Grebyonkin is going to be one of the most intriguing players to follow as he begins his era as a pro hockey player in North America. If he proves he’s offensively capable and defensively reliable, don’t be shocked to see him lace ’em up with the Maple Leafs at some point in 2024-25, and pushing for a roster spot in 2025-26.
