THN Penguins Predictions: Which player is poised for a bounceback season?

With a new season just around the corner, the Pittsburgh Penguins are gearing up for yet another training camp.

But this time around – unlike in seasons past – 2024-25 could be full of surprises.

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As such, we will break down some storylines to expect this season and provide you with some bold – and some not-so-bold – predictions for the 2024-25 campaign.

Next up: Which Penguins’ player is most poised for a bounceback season?

Kelsey’s Prediction

First of all, I think there are several players on this roster who are poised for bounceback seasons. Erik Karlsson, Kevin Hayes, and Matt Grzelcyk come to mind.

I’ll argue all day that Karlsson wasn’t even bad at all last season, but I think he’s about to have a monster year. I think Hayes will be playing inspired hockey this year and that younger, faster legs around him should help his scoring touch re-emerge.

And I think Grzelcyk’s process is still there – and that he could be a better anchor for Letang than Graves is – he just had a mess of a season in Boston last year and needed a change of scenery.

But I want to discuss a player that some Penguins’ fans seem to have a short memory about. And that guy is Rickard Rakell.

Rakell set expectations high after his 2022-23 campaign, when he put up 28 goals and 60 points over a full season. But an extremely slow start – he did not have more goals than goaltender Tristan Jarry until Dec. 27 – and a nagging shoulder injury broke his 2023-24 season, and he finished with only 15 goals and 37 points in 70 games.

But there were some positives that came out of last season, too. For one, after Dec. 18 – following his month-long IR stint – he scored at a 23-goal, 51-point pace, which is more resemblant of his previous season. This was also despite his shoulder injury, which likely hindered his shooting ability.

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It’s also worth noting that Rakell’s game improved in other facets: He emerged as one of the team’s best defensive forwards – if not the best – and he was second only to defensive-minded fourth-liner Noel Acciari in hits by Penguins’ forwards. And according to Moneypuck, he was also, analytically, the fourth-best Penguins’ forward with at least 1,000 minutes of ice time last season.

Even when Rakell isn’t scoring, he’s putting in some good work. He’s still a great forechecker, he creates space using his smarts and physicality, and he’s defensively responsible. Combine all those things with the healthy, goal-scoring sniper Penguins’ fans too soon forgot about? You’ve got yourself a pretty complete player.

And – seriously – let’s not forget the pure skill and rocket of a shot this guy has. There’s a reason he’s a two-time 30-goal scorer and a five-time 20-goal scorer:

He found chemistry with Evgeni Malkin and Michael Bunting at the end of last season, and we have all seen the things he can do alongside Sidney Crosby. Realistically – if he’s healthy – I predict a 26-goal, 57-point campaign. But I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if he surpasses 30 for the first time in his Penguins’ career and his third time overall.

Many folks have given up on Rakell, but I am not one of them. Even if his contract ages poorly in those final seasons, I still think he has one or two good seasons left.

Ryan’s Prediction

In 2022-23, Erik Karlsson, then with the San Jose Sharks, won the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best defenseman. En route to his third win, he became only the sixth defender to register 100 points in a single season.

Yet, somehow, Karlsson was dealt to the Penguins within two months of accepting the award in last summer’s biggest blockbuster and possible heist of the decade.

But after 82 games in a Penguins sweater, the jury is still out on who won the trade because the Sharks ended up with the first overall pick (by design), and Pittsburgh missed the playoffs by three points (not part of the plan).

Meanwhile, Karlsson grew, simultaneously, into one of the most liked and disliked skaters in the lineup. Not only did his point production drop by 46 points, but he also went from five power-play goals to just two and 27 points on the man advantage to 17.

One of the most puzzling aspects of the whole situation is how Karlsson went from a bottom-feeder to a playoff contender and somehow regressed.

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As the Penguins’ highest-paid player at $10 million for the next three seasons, Karlsson should reward the fanbase with at least a point-per-game pace. Aside from his 2022-23 campaign, this is a feat he hasn’t accomplished since 2015-16 when he was with the Ottawa Senators and collected 82 points in 82 games.

The statistics indicate that he hasn’t come close to regularly meeting that production level in almost a decade, but on a fading Sharks team, he scored 101 points and still finished the season minus-26.

Of course, there are red flags everywhere, but Karlsson is a three-time Norris Trophy winner. Defenders with more wins? Bobby Orr, Doug Harvey, and Nicklas Lidstrom. Hockey legends.

However, those four have another thing in common: they won the Stanley Cup. At $10 million a year, the Penguins need more from Karlsson, and at 34, he’s still got time to cement his legacy by leading Pittsburgh to the playoffs and to a championship.

There’s no denying that the skills are there. The execution also shouldn’t be a problem. Now that his former head coach David Quinn is back behind the bench as an assistant, it’s time for Karlsson to shake off those first-year blues and get back to the 80-point player he’s capable of being or risk turning into the Jonathan Huberdeau of the Eastern Conference.

Bollen ligger på din plan Karlsson.

Related: Predictions for Each Penguins’ Player in 2024-25