On Tuesday night on Long Island, the Red Wings (3-3-0) stole a 1-0 victory on the strength of a 29-save Alex Lyon shutout. Let’s review Detroit’s precarious path to the road win over the Islanders.
© Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Number to Know: 11
In professional sports, you never have to apologize for victory, nor should you, but it’s impossible to debrief Tuesday night’s win for the Red Wings without fixating on the ridiculousness that is winning a game with just 11 shots on goal.
The Islanders didn’t exactly have a dominant night offensively themselves, either by volume or quality, but their control of the total number of chances was fairly staggering. The below map of all situations scoring chances (courtesy of MoneyPuck.com) underscores this point. Detroit had a couple slot looks beyond Patrick Kane’s goal, but it would be inaccurate to suggest the Red Wings achieved a greater quality of chances than did New York.
Source: MoneyPuck.com
Per Natural Stat Trick, high-danger chances were 7-2 in favor of the Islanders. Admittedly, five of those seven came on the power play for New York, but nonetheless, the fact is the Isles didn’t just have more looks, they had more good looks too. Alex Lyon bailed Detroit out with a phenomenal performance in net, but making a habit of such performances is unlikely to yield similar results moving forward. To that end…
The Game in One Quote
“I don’t know how sustainable it is. You look at our three wins: they’ve all been great efforts by the goaltending. It’s great you’re winning those games, but I think we are a better team than that.” -Patrick Kane
In Detroit’s first win of the season, Cam Talbot posted a 42-save shutout. In the Red Wings’ second win, Lyon made 37 of 39 saves and put up 2.34 goals saved above expected, per MoneyPuck. Last night, Lyon stole the game with 29 saves and 2.66 GSAx (again, per MoneyPuck). In small samples, there is no clearer path to winning a hockey game than great goaltending, but as Kane wondered aloud last night, it’s hard to bank on that formula for any prolonged period. Outstanding goaltending has gotten Detroit six out of 12 points to open the year, but that pace isn’t good enough for a playoff spot and even to keep up a .500 winning clip will require improvement to overall performance.
Kane went on to point out that while defensive solidity has its value, Detroit needs to find a different offensive gear to get where they intend to go. “I think there’s a lot of focus on the defensive end and that’s all good, but sometimes the best defense is playing offense and playing with the puck and playing in their end,” he said. “I think we can do that a lot more. Sometimes we have good shifts and then we kind of retreat and sit back a little bit. You want to be a team that comes in wave after wave and be able to sustain that momentum for long periods of time.”
The biggest difference in Saturday and Tuesday’s wins is that on Saturday Detroit enjoyed spells of controlling play, even if there were moments when the Red Wings had to absorb Nashville pressure. There was no semblance of sustained offensive pressure from Detroit Tuesday, and that puts tremendous strain on team defense and goaltending, all but erasing the margin for error in those areas. As Kane points out, the Red Wings need to find ways to achieve defensive relief by pushing play in the other direction as they move forward.
Observations
Chemistry in Progress for Kane and Tarasenko?
I don’t want to belabor the point that last night’s performance was an uninspired one in the attacking third, but even Kane’s goal (the game’s only marker) felt a bit like a gift from the Islanders.
It’s encouraging to see some of Detroit’s scorers show signs of burgeoning chemistry, in this case Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko. The goal also provides a sense of the value J.T. Compher can provide a scoring line, helping transition the puck through neutral ice then opening up a lane for Kane to take advantage of with a drive across the face of goal.
Still, when I look at the goal in question, it’s hard not to see the Islanders simply switch off defensively despite having the requisite bodies back. However, in keeping with the evening’s theme, there needn’t be apologies for wins, and Tarasenko and Kane deserve credited for capitalizing on New York’s lapse. Perhaps it is the start of more offense to come for that duo.
Edvinsson & Seider Stand Tall
The prospect of defensive pairing of Moritz Seider (six-foot-four, 23 years old) and Simon Edvinsson (six-foot-six, 21 years old) for years to come has Red Wings fans salivating, and on Tuesday, you saw clear evidence why. On a night when precious little went Detroit’s way, it must be said that Edvinsson-Seider (which the Red Wings have used on and off in the season’s early days) had its best performance together to date.
They played 15:58 together at five-on-five (tops among Detroit D pairs for the night), and they posted an 0.611-0.197 on-ice advantage in expected goals in that time (both stats courtesy of MoneyPuck). That would be an excellent figure any night, but considering the Isles’ overall control of play it is downright remarkable. Without Seider and Edvinsson on the ice together, New York commanded a 1.07-0.21 edge in xG.
With Edvinsson in particular, I fear I was guilty of unreasonable or perhaps just fanciful expectations for the young Swede heading into the season. Because he was so good and so consistent down the stretch last season, I presumed Edvinsson would carry that exact form into the new year. That probably was never fair to a 21-year-old defenseman barely halfway to 50 career NHL games. To be clear, it’s not that Edvinsson has been bad to start the year, but he has had moments where his lack of experience was clear.
However, his game seems to be building with each passing day, and he was excellent last night. There was a moment late in the third that I loved from Edvinsson, when he stripped a puck from Jean-Gabriel Pageau and fired it down for a full-ice clearance on the penalty kill. Pageau looked nothing short of baffled that Edvinsson—who looked out of position, or at least out of range for nabbing a takeaway—had managed to lift the puck, but such are the benefits of Edvinsson’s enormous wingspan. Whatever his offensive ceiling may be, plays like that one offer a reminder that he will be an excellent defensive player for years to come at the NHL level.
Also from THN Detroit
Thanks to Lyon, Red Wings Survive Long Island for 1-0 Win
What Is the State of the Red Wings Goaltending Room Through Five Games?
Kasper Debuts, Tarasenko Strikes, Detroit Gets Back a Good Feeling: Red Wings 5, Predators 2 Game Notes
Red Wings Bounce Back for “Greasy” 5-2 Win in Nashville
Penalty Kill Woes Put Red Wings In A Bind
