With all due respect to Matthew Knies, the bright spot on the Maple Leafs so far this season is Anthony Stolarz. He presently sits 5th in the league when it comes to goals saved above expected (with 6), he’s sitting on a .928 save percentage and has already picked up a shutout this season. That’s the kind of start that looks like the starter role has been claimed and many are ready to anoint him as such.
A couple of numbers that splash some cold water on the Stolarz start are .944 and .924. Those are the save percentages for Jack Campbell’s start to his first full season as a Leaf and the start to Samsonov’s time as a Leaf as well. It is turning into a bit of an annual tradition to believe that the new goaltender has fixed the Leafs’ goaltending woes, and only Petr Mrazek didn’t have any interest in playing along with that.
While his numbers didn’t stand out as much as Campbell, Samsonov, or Stolarz’s, Woll started his first full season as a Leaf last year with a respectable .908 save percentage as well and finished the year at .907 over 25 games, maybe not establishing himself as the goaltender of the future but positioning himself for a possible run at claiming the net this year. Injuries and a slow start have deferred some of that talk, but as the Campbell and Samsonov references above prove, being on the lookout for goaltending options is a constant and at the very least Woll seems to be a solid number two option that the Leafs should still want to explore more.
It’s that combination of exploring what the Leafs have in Woll that partially feeds into the case for pumping the brakes on Stolarz, but also the reminder that we are yet to see the fatigue wall kick in as well as more informed opposition scouts on Stolarz that would prepare teams to face him. Up until now, Stolarz has benefitted from opposition primarily preparing to face Sergei Bobrovsky or John Gibson, and less was known about him. That’s going to change at some point this season and shooters will know where to shoot beyond the staples that have applied to every goaltender since the beginning of time (high glove, and a foot off the ice.)
The load management piece will likely be the key thing to watch for with Stolarz as he gravitates toward a career-high workload. Anthony already played seven games in October, which matches his career-high workload for a month, a total he has hit just twice previously. While there is nothing to say that Stolarz can’t handle more work and the Leafs certainly wouldn’t have brought him in if they felt his 28-game season in 2021-22 was his peak workload, it is worth remembering that both Jack Campbell and Ilya Samsonov hit a wall when they became overworked as well. That is the benefit of having Joseph Woll in the tandem as well, and with two back-to-back sets remaining in November followed by a November 17-23 stretch that only sees the Leafs play once, it should be relatively easy to continue to lean into the hot hand of Stolarz for the time being, but being mindful that December is one of the most intensely scheduled months for the Maple Leafs and a greater balance will need to be achieved.
In the early days, Anthony Stolarz has looked like he’s exactly what the Leafs have needed and going beyond the numbers, his composure and comfort in net make him look like he’s more capable of sustaining his success than previous encouraging netminders like Campbell and Samsonov. There just needs to be a “proceed with caution” warning attached to him. While the Leafs should and will test him to see what his capacity for workload looks like, there is also a need to find a balance for a goaltender who could be pushing his career-best for games player before the league breaks for the Four Nations tournament. The Leafs also have Woll whom they should want to play on a somewhat frequent basis to avoid rust and allow him to show his best self.
Having a good goaltender is anything but a problem but the team will need to put in work throughout the season to make sure he is at his best when they need him the most.
Data from Hockey Reference and Moneypuck
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