I asked 10 beat writers in 10 different cities whether their respective teams would be interested in trading for Erik Karlsson.
Based on their answers, the Sharks might not have a lot of realistic trade partners for their 33-year-old superstar defenseman.
There’s no need to rehash why Karlsson’s trade value isn’t as high as you might think for a pending Norris Trophy winner. I discussed his massive contract and the challenges that presents at length in the new San Jose Hockey Now Podcast, including why I expect a relatively low trade return for him.
Instead, let’s get right into teams that could be interested.
I asked 10 writers two questions: Is there an on-the-ice fit between Karlsson and their respective teams? And is there any way, assuming the Sharks retain on a significant portion of Karlsson’s contract, that their teams can fit him under the $83.5 million salary cap?
Mike Augello of Buffalo Hockey Now (Buffalo Sabres), Mike Heika of the Dallas Stars, Kevin Allen of Detroit Hockey Now (Detroit Red Wings), Jason Gregor of Oilers Nation (Edmonton Oilers), George Richards of Florida Hockey Now (Florida Panthers), Austin Stanovich of Los Angeles Hockey Now (Los Angeles Kings), Andrew Fantucchio of NYI Hockey Now (New York Islanders), Murray Pam of Full Press Hockey (Ottawa Senators), John Barr of Sound of Hockey (Seattle Kraken), and David Alter of The Hockey News (Toronto Maple Leafs) answered the call.
Buffalo Sabres
Mike Augello, Buffalo Hockey Now: Stylistically, Karlsson is not the best fit for either the offensive-minded Rasmus Dahlin or the sophomore Owen Power. His best years in Ottawa were spent with a more defensive-minded partner in Marc Methot. … Putting Karlsson with either Buffalo Sabres top picks would almost be counterproductive since there is only one puck. Buffalo having an interest in a more two-way blueliner in Brett Pesce makes more sense.
Even with a sizable salary reduction from $11.5 million to a lower amount, the four remaining years on Karlsson’s deal could be another hurdle. Projecting out, Dahlin (presumably) and Samuelsson would be locked up on their long-term deals.
If Power signs a three-year bridge, that would expire the same year that Karlsson’s deal does. But if the Sabres get the Calder Trophy nominee signed for more than three, it will mean allocating a sizable chunk of the cap on four defensemen and Karlsson’s age and injury history have to be taken into account.
Dallas Stars
Mike Heika, Dallas Stars: I think it would take too many moves to get it done.
And I think they saw that by not re-signing [offensive defenseman] John Klingberg [last summer] that Miro Heiskanen took off.
I just think they want to trust what’s here. Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist will get much bigger roles.
Detroit Red Wings
Kevin Allen, Detroit Hockey Now: I think the Red Wings would be interested and could add a $7.5 million salary [if the Sharks retained], but they would be unwilling to move a first-round pick or top prospect. That’s the problem. The rebuilding teams have the cap space but can’t afford to give up the assets. The contenders are willing to part with the assets, but don’t have the cap space.
[But Red Wings GM Steve] Yzerman doesn’t think they are ready.
I asked him specifically today about giving up prospects and draft picks and he said this:
“When we have all these draft picks, what I’m trying to do is build a nucleus of young players that’s going to be the core of the team for a significant period of time or for the future. If we give up those pieces – and these draft picks, there’s no guarantee they’re going to turn into that – we have to feel the player we’re acquiring is going to be a part of that core for a long period time. It doesn’t make sense to give up pieces that we need to build a core, and in 3-4 years that player has retired or moved on and we still don’t have that core in place.”
Edmonton Oilers
Jason Gregor, Oilers Nation: I don’t see a fit, cap-wise, with them having acquired Mattias Ekholm. I don’t see how they fit him in cap-wise unless SJ takes Cody Ceci, Kailer Yamamoto, and Warren Foegele, plus picks and San Jose retains at $2.5 million.
But if they did then, that would be the move, and he’d play with Darnell Nurse or Ekholm. Would be very mobile top-four with Evan Bouchard also.
If Sharks retain more, then the package would change. Karlsson is elite offensive D-man, arguably the best in the NHL, but with Evan Bouchard’s emergence down the stretch after Ekholm was acquired, I think a trade is less likely, and likely less needed for Edmonton.
Florida Panthers
George Richards, Florida Hockey Now: I know the Florida Panthers have been “linked” here, but I don’t see it. The cap hold would have to be 50 percent and even then, I don’t know.
The Panthers just got rid of Keith Yandle’s big deal and I’m not saying they’re the same player – but they have similar qualities as in they are terrific point producers but you’re starting them in the offensive zone. Unless something crazy happens, I don’t see this one going down.
Florida should know whether they’re going to sign Brandon Montour long-term soon enough; if it’s a no, perhaps they look this way. Montour plays a slightly better defensive game and runs the power play. If the Panthers are going for it – they are –maybe they say two good years of Karlsson is worth it and they’ll worry about the last two later. So I just kind of talked myself into this.
But only if Montour is going to walk. He tested free agency in 2021 before signing a three-year deal with the Panthers a day before free agency opened.
Los Angeles Kings
Austin Stanovich, LA Hockey Now: As an on-ice fit, Karlsson does make some sense. The Kings definitely lack some offense from the blueline and there’s no one better than Karlsson to provide that. He also fits into the Kings’ system as the right defense is often responsible for retrieving dump-ins and moving the puck up ice.
I would have some concerns about him playing second-fiddle to Doughty as that seemed to not work with Burns in San Jose, it feels like Karlsson has to be the guy on his team, and he wouldn’t in LA. Also, given LA’s improvements on the man-advantage last season I think his impact there is softened. Overall, he’d be a good fit given the Kings’ lack of offensive production from the backend, but he would be more of a luxury pickup than a priority.
I don’t envision a world where the Kings would pursue this deal.
Weighing up the positives for Karlsson still doesn’t make it worth the price for LA. With Doughty playing at a high level again, Matt Roy coming into his own as a second-pairing defenseman and prospects like Jordan Spence and especially Brandt Clarke, right defense seems like the lowest priority for improvement in the Kings’ org.
The Kings have $7.3 million in cap left and only have 11 forwards and one goalie. After re-signing Gabe Vilardi, finding a goalie to partner with Pheonix Copley, and filling out their roster, they won’t have the cap to make a Karlsson trade work. Even if the Sharks retain a large chunk of salary.
Overall, Karlsson’s offensive impact would be huge for the Kings. But with bigger holes to fill, limited Cap, and right defense being their strongest position, I’d put this as a very unlikely deal.
New York Islanders
Andrew Fantucchio, NYI Hockey Now: The Islanders desperately need a puck-moving defenseman who can help out their power play and Karlsson is arguably the best player out there that fits that criteria. But I think there’s too many things that would prevent them from pulling off a deal.
Firstly, they’re incredibly tight on cap space with just $6.1 million. They’re going to shed at least some of Josh Bailey’s contract, which could give them at most $11.1 mil, but they also have other UFAs they’d like to re-sign.
Even then, the Islanders would have to give up multiple draft picks in the deal as well. They’re already low on picks this year and have given up their last four first-round picks and would have to include at least one or two more to get Karlsson.
I guess in short, Karlsson is an ideal fit for the Islanders, but they don’t have the space or means to trade for him at this time.
Ottawa Senators
Murray Pam, Full Press Hockey: I [don’t see Karlsson as] a fit if he returned. The Sens are concentrating on three things.
1. Recouping draft capital for Alex DeBrincat.
2. Adding a goalie through trade or free agency
3. Finding a producing bottom-six forward
The team doesn’t have the draft capital to pull off a deal of which San Jose eats 50 percent salary. Not certain if they wish to deal a prospect such as Ridley Greig or Jacob Bernard-Docker. Contrary to belief, their remaining cupboard of prospects is bare.
The question remains where does the team allocate dollars for next season? In 2024-25, Jake Sanderson likely will receive $6.5 million to $8 million on a long-term deal. They can do it, but they’ll be extremely tight for next season. They’d have to move Artem Zub in any deal for Karlsson to make it work too. Shane Pinto/Erik Brannstrom also need contracts.
The other issue is ice-time and [who has the puck]. Karlsson, Thomas Chabot, Sanderson, and Jake Chychrun all want the puck. Who plays power play and penalty kill? A lot to gloss over.
Seattle Kraken
John Barr, Sound of Hockey: On the surface, there is a fit. The Kraken power play struggled for long stretches during the season and would instantly be vaulted at PP1 quarterback [by Karlsson] and move Vince Dunn to PP2. They already have three bona fide right-shot defenders, but I am sure that can be figured out if Ron Francis wants to add Karlsson to the team.
I am sure they would not want to take on the full cap hit, but the Kraken are well positioned to take on salary. That said, this team has been very careful in taking on big contracts as far back as the expansion draft, so it might not be in the cards based on the team’s track record.
Toronto Maple Leafs
David Alter, The Hockey News: There’s no doubt a player like Erik Karlsson would help improve the Leafs. But I don’t see it ever happening in a world where the Leafs already have three $11 million players, granted Mitch Marner is a 10.9, plus a raise due for players, including William Nylander.
I think any team would A) want to see how much the cap moves for 2024-25 and B) also make sure that Karlsson’s play last year wasn’t an aberration given the years that preceded it.
I mean if the deal was right, the Leafs will examine it, for sure.
If the Leafs move on from the core [of forwards Nylander, Marner, Auston Matthews, and John Tavares], then anything is possible. But I still think the cap is going to be insanely tight.
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