It’s getting warmer outside and flowers are beginning to bloom, which means it’s almost time for the NHL playoffs. Each team has 10 or less games remaining on its regular-season schedule and within the next three weeks, we’ll have seeding established and first-round matchups set.
In the Eastern Conference, the eight playoff teams are set and have been for some time now. The ninth-place Islanders are 15 points behind the second wild card, the Washington Capitals, with just 10 games to play. In the West, there’s a bit more intrigue as it appears four teams (Los Angeles, Dallas, Nashville and Vegas) are competing for just three spots.
As the regular season winds down and the playoff picture crystalizes, which teams do bettors like to make a run in the playoffs?
Colorado is a very popular favorite
The Colorado Avalanche are the current betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup at BetMGM with +350 odds. That has not stopped bettors from flocking to bet the league’s best team to hoist Lord Stanley come June.
Currently, over 25% of bets and nearly one-third of the betting handle is on Colorado to win it all. The next most popular team, Florida, is getting just 8% of the action. It’s a significant disparity and we know that the oddsmakers will be rooting hard against Colorado this spring.
The Avalanche are the favorites and a popular bet for a reason. Their 110 points in the standings is tied for most in the league with the Panthers, but Colorado has accomplished that feat in one less game. While their analytical profile isn’t as dominant as it was last season, they still rank in the top-third of the league in both expected goals scored and expected goals allowed.
There’s no shortage of elite talent on this Colorado team. Nathan MacKinnon is one of the best players in the sport. The Avalanche have four players (MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri and Cale Makar) inside the league’s top-25 point producers. Gabriel Landeskog, the usual linemate for MacKinnon and Rantanen, should return from a knee injury in time for the playoffs. Devon Toews has developed into one of the league’s best defensemen. After a somewhat slow start to the season, goaltender Darcy Kuemper has settled in and now ranks top six in wins, goals-against average and save percentage.
Bettors love Rangers to win the East
Almost half of the bets and over 70% of the money are backing the Avalanche to win the Western Conference, but the Eastern Conference is much more wide open from a betting perspective.
The New York Rangers have the seventh-best odds to win the Eastern Conference at +900. Among playoff teams, only the Washington Capitals (16-to-1) have worse odds. However, a lot of bettors will be pulling for the long-shot underdogs from the Big Apple.
Currently the Rangers are getting over 26% of bets and nearly 30% of the money backing them to represent the conference in the Stanley Cup Final.
The Rangers looked destined to finish the season in second place in the Metropolitan division, which would likely give them home-ice advantage in a series with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Pittsburgh hasn’t made it out of the first round in the last three seasons, but then again, the Rangers didn’t even make the playoffs in any of those three seasons.
When analyzing the Rangers, you must begin with goaltender Igor Shesterkin. Shesterkin is currently -650 to win the Vezina Trophy, which is given to the league’s best goalie. He leads all NHL goalies in most statistical categories and is the main reason why the Rangers have had this unexpected success. Shesterkin has been a bit more human in the last month, as his save percentage has dropped from a record-pushing .940 to a measly .934, which still leads the league by a significant margin.
There’s a lot of high-end talent on the Rangers. Chris Kreider has 50 goals, which is third in the league behind Auston Matthews and Leon Draisaitl. Artemi Panarin’s 67 assists rank third in the league. Adam Fox won the Norris Trophy in 2021, an award given to the NHL’s best defenseman. Mika Zibanejad is producing at better than a point-per-game clip.
The concern for the Rangers is their five-on-five play. They have the worst expected-goal rate among all playoff teams, according to Natural Stat Trick. They’ve survived due to tremendous goaltending and special teams play, but five-on-five play is usually a good indicator of success in the playoffs.
In 2021, the St. Louis Blues were swept in the first round. In 2020, the Winnipeg Jets lost in the qualifying round during the league’s return-to-play tournament. In 2019, the defending champion Washington Capitals lost in the first round. In 2018, the Colorado Avalanche lost in the first round as well. These teams all entered the playoffs as the worst team in terms of expected-goal rate. The last team in that situation to win a playoff series was Calgary in 2015.
Most popular Stanley Cup bets
The following teams are the most popular bets to win the Stanley Cup at BetMGM:
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Colorado Avalanche, 25.4% of bets (+350)
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Florida Panthers, 8% of bets (+550)
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Tampa Bay Lightning, 7.2% of bets (10-to-1)
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Carolina Hurricanes, 6.3% of bets (10-to-1)
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New York Rangers, 5.8% of bets (18-to-1)
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Pittsburgh Penguins, 5.6% of bets (16-to-1)
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Vegas Golden Knights, 4.9% of bets (20-to-1)
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Calgary Flames, 4.9% of bets (+900)
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Minnesota Wild, 3.9% of bets (18-to-1)
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Toronto Maple Leafs, 3.9% of bets (11-to-1)
