In the five seasons before 2023-24, nine forwards played a significant number of NHL games (at least 35) the season directly following their draft. That list includes Brady Tkachuk and Andrei Svechnikov in 2018-19, Kaapo Kakko, Jack Hughes, and Kirby Dach in 2019-20, Tim Stutzle and Alexis Lafreniere in 2020-21, and Juraj Slafkovsky in 2022-23.
Leo Carlsson Enters Second Season With Added Expectations in Elevated Role
In 2023-24, four players drafted in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft played at least half the season in the NHL; Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Zach Benson, and Anaheim Ducks second-overall selection Leo Carlsson.
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Carlsson (19) played in 55 games during his rookie season with the Ducks, scoring 12 goals and 17 assists for 29 points, a .53 points per game average.
Of the nine forwards in the previous five seasons to play significant time in the NHL the season after they were drafted, the closest production comparable to Carlsson’s rookie season is Tim Stutzle’s in 2020-21, when he scored 12 goals and 17 assists for 29 points in 53 games, a .55 points per game average.
The next closest to Carlsson was Andrei Svechnikov’s 2018-19 season where he posted a .45 points per game average with 20 goals and 17 assists for 37 points in 82 games followed by Brady Tkachuk’s 2018-19 and his .63 points per game average with 22 goals and 23 assists for 45 points in 71 games.
Among the nine forwards previously mentioned, their sophomore seasons mostly saw a wide discrepancy in their production in terms of progression. They progressed anywhere between a .45 points per game increase (Svechnikov) and a .22 points per game decrease (Sillinger) in their second seasons in the NHL.
The median progression between them in terms of points per game average was .185, also nearly identical to Tim Stutzle’s sophomore jump of .18 points per game, when he scored 22 goals and 36 assists for 58 points in 79 games.
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If that second-year median progression were applied to Carlsson, he’d be projected to score nearly 59 points if he were to play all 82 games in 2024-25.
For those who watched under a microscope, Carlsson’s rookie production didn’t reflect how impactful he was in his first season in the NHL. He dictated play in every zone and every situation. Whether his team had possession or not, he was a puck magnet.
Offensively, he supported breakouts like a ten-year veteran center, building speed to attack the neutral and offensive zones. He transported pucks up ice and into dangerous areas seemingly at will, either creating shots for himself or finding teammates streaking through soft ice.
Though public underlying metrics may not reflect it, the volume of dangerous chances Carlsson singlehandedly created was eye-opening. With improved finishing in tight, his point total should increase drastically.
With 55 NHL games under his belt, Carlsson should be more proficient when reading how much time he has with the puck and where pressure comes from in his second season.
With his ability to read plays defensively, anticipate, protect, and come out of battles with possession, the puck should be even more attracted to Carlsson’s stick moving forward.
With simply modest progression, Carlsson’s impact could be immeasurable as the Ducks attempt to claw their way out of their elongated rebuild in 2024-25. A 59-point sophomore season may not only be attainable but could prove a conservative projection for the Ducks’ cornerstone center.
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