There is plenty of blame to go around for the Edmonton Oilers’ horrid 5-12-1 start, and some of it belongs to Connor McDavid.
It’s not McDavid’s fault the team’s goaltenders have combined for an .870 save %, and the superstar missed two games with an upper-body injury that may still be affecting him to some degree. His performance is not the result of a lack of effort, and depending on the precise nature of his undisclosed injury he may deserve credit for his resilience.
Not everything wrong with the Oilers can be laid at McDavid’s feet by any stretch of the imagination, but his bottom-line numbers are undeniably well off his usual pace.
Most players would be delighted with point-per-game production, but it’s shocking to be six weeks into the NHL season and see McDavid — who is coming off a three-season stretch where he produced 381 points and won the Art Ross Trophy every year — sitting 59th on the league’s points leaderboard.
Some of that is undeniably bad luck.
McDavid’s shooting percentage of 12.5% is well below his career average (15.5%), and his on-ice shooting percentage at 5v5 (5.8%) is driving down his assist totals. Those are mitigating factors, but they don’t explain everything we’re seeing with McDavid.
Last season, the superstar made a breakthrough when it came to finding his own shot, scoring 65 goals after never topping 44 in his previous seven NHL campaigns. In 2022-23 he set career-high marks in shots per game (4.29) and shots per 60 minutes (11.5).
In 2023-24 those numbers sit at 3.0 and 8.2. McDavid hasn’t managed fewer than three shots per game since his rookie season in 2015-16, and this is his worst output on a per-minute basis since 2018-19.
He also hasn’t done as good a job of firing from high-danger areas lately as he’d done in recent years. According to NHL Edge player tracking data, just 25% of his attempts on net have come from a high-danger location — a far cry from the 45.7% mark he managed last year and the 46.2% he registered in 2021-22. With that added context, it’s not surprising that McDavid’s shooting percentage is down this season.
Not only has McDavid been less dangerous, there’s also evidence to suggest his mobility isn’t at the same level it’s been in recent years. According to NHL Edge, the 26-year-old has seen a meaningful decline in top speed. In both 2021-22 and 2022-23 his top speeds recorded (24.14 mph and 24.16 mph, respectively) ranked in the top six among NHL skaters.
This year he hasn’t gone above 23.16 mph. To be clear, that’s still an excellent number that’s in the 96th percentile among NHL players, it just not McDavid-esque.
No matter what statistic you look at, that’s the story for the superstar this year. He has been really good by any reasonable standard, but his own bar is absurdly high and he’s limboing underneath it.
One of the reasons the Oilers were a trendy Stanley Cup pick entering 2023-24 was that McDavid had proven himself to be a guy who was a cut above every player on the planet.
Having an unstoppable force like that was supposed cancel out many of Edmonton’s weaknesses, and make them a squad that no team could feel comfortable matching up against. Deploying a player there’s simply no answer for makes you a heck of a threat — particularly when you’ve got another guy who’s among the NHL’s best in Leon Draisaitl.
So far in 2023-24, McDavid has had his moments, but it would be impossible to argue that he’s been the best player in the NHL. Whether you want to attribute that to injuries or not, the results are what they are.
McDavid has been good, perhaps even great, for the Oilers this year. Unfortunately for an Edmonton team in a deep hole, that’s not enough.
The Oilers need McDavid to be transcendent to help mount a comeback push. That might sound like too much to ask, but it’s a standard he’s consistently met throughout his career.
