Derek Lalonde explained it this way: He has to know when the Detroit Red Wings’ play, and because of that, he can’t avoid seeing that oddsmakers don’t favor them making the playoffs.
The Wings (28-20-6) are not, of course, very wrapped up in those numbers. What matters to them is that their 65 points in 55 games extrapolates to 95 after 82, which should be enough to advance to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
They take a little two-game winning streak up against the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday, but before that, the Wings had lost two straight games — which is why Lalonde stresses keeping focus on the day-to-day.
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“Shut the noise off,” he said Wednesday. “I don’t do social media for reason and purpose to clear my own head. I hope our guys are the same. I’m sure the two straight losses, it was over for some fans, and that’s why they’re fans. And then with the two straight wins, it’s already a lock buying playoff tickets.
“You can’t operate like that. This is going to be extremely difficult. The projections out there that people send me, we’re still a low 20% (to reach the postseason). Some of the teams chasing us are 67% projection of making it. I get all that stuff, today’s projections, and AI, whatever. But that’s why you shut it out. Live in the moment. If we are going to stay in this battle and be fortunate enough to be there in the end, it’s going to be about what we do.”
The Wings are 12-4-2 since the start of January, but even such a strong stretch only has them in a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference race. That’s how tight it is. And that’s what Lalonde sees when he looks up start times.
“I’m not a gambler, but you just go to the NHL schedule before your game, they have the odds,” Lalonde said. “And Vegas hates us. So I hope they’ve lost a lot of money on us. Someone gave me a stat — we’ve won more games as a Vegas underdog than anyone in the league this year by a large margin.”
In the case of Thursday’s game, the Avalanche (35-18-4) do have a player challenging for the scoring title (Nathan MacKinnon, 92 points) and a Norris Trophy-winning defenseman (Cale Makar, 60 points). J.T. Compher played for Colorado before joining the Wings this past summer.
“It should be fun to see some of those guys, but at the end of the day it’s a really good hockey team and we’re trying to keep it rolling here, keep getting points,” he said. “I think it’s all in the details. When we play defensively tight we have success. We have a belief we can play with anyone in this league.”
It’ll be the same lineup that won in Seattle, so that means Alex Lyon getting the start. In his pre-practice comments to the team, Lalonde said he cautioned against coming out flat, as can happen in the first game back after an extended trip. Vegas aside, opponent aside, the Wings know they control their own odds.
“If we are going to continue to stay in this battle, it’s going to be about keeping it out of our net,” Lalonde said. “Still a long ways to go. It’s just going to get tougher. You want meaningful games down the stretch. We’ve handled it for the most part pretty good, but they’re just going to get tougher. I talk about 95, 97, 100 points – I think it’s going to be around that 97 points. We have to take care of our own business.
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“There’s a quiet confidence in that room, but quiet confidence only comes from doing it right. We’ve got to continue to do it right.”
Contact Helene St. James at hstjames@freepress.com. Follow her @helenestjames.
Read more on the Detroit Red Wings and sign up for our Red Wings newsletter. Her latest book, “On the Clock: Behind the Scenes with the Detroit Red Wings at the NHL Draft,” is available from Amazon, Barnes & Noble and Triumph Books. Personalized copies available via her e-mail.
Next up: Avalanche
Matchup: Red Wings (29-20-6) vs. Colorado (35-18-4).
Faceoff: 7 p.m. Thursday; Little Caesars Arena, Detroit.
TV/radio: Bally Sports Detroit Extra; WXYT-FM (97.1).
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Red Wings ignore oddsmakers, favor own playoff odds
