The Florida Panthers are still in firm control of their Round 1 series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, having a 3-1 series lead. They almost completed the comeback in Game 4, but the Lightning scored a couple of late third-period goals to put the game to bed. It was one of the Panthers’ sloppier games of the series, so they have some adjustments to make ahead of Game 5 tonight in Sunrise, Florida.
Panthers Need to Be More Disciplined
One reason the Panthers lost by three goals on Saturday is they were taking too many penalties. The Lightning managed to capitalize on the Panthers parading to the sin bin, going 2/5 on the power play. They had the first-ranked power play in the NHL during the regular season, so giving them that many opportunities is asking for trouble.
The Panthers’ penalty woes were particularly problematic in the first period, as they took three minor penalties. There’s not much question that the Panthers are a better five-on-five team than the Lightning, but they won’t be able to gain any momentum at that game state if the Lightning are on the power play that often, especially early in the game.
Related: Lightning Start Strong to Defeat Panthers in Game 4 to Avoid Elimination
The penalties have been a bit of a problem for the Panthers in this series, too. It hadn’t come to bite them in the first three games, but it did in Game 4 when they could’ve completed the sweep of their in-state rivals. The Lightning had four power plays in Game 3 and six in Game 2. The difference in those games is the Panthers went 9/10 on the kill, but it was only a matter of time before the Lightning’s power play found the back of the net and made a difference.
We know the Panthers like to play a physical game, which can lead to some penalties. But they have to be more disciplined tonight to put the series away. The Lightning’s power play can be their great equalizer and make up for a lack of five-on-five play. If the Panthers can keep them off the man advantage, they should be in good shape.
Special Teams Need to Tighten Up
Sticking with the special teams theme, the Panthers’ special teams units let them down in their Game 4 loss. As mentioned, they gave up two power-play goals, but also allowed a shorthanded goal to Brandon Hagel in the first period.
Allowing two power-play goals and a shorthanded tally is no recipe for a victory. The Panthers’ special teams units had been solid until Game 4, so it’s not a concern at this point. But straightening things out and cleaning up some of the sloppy play that led to Hagel’s shorthanded goal should take care of that issue.
Winning the special teams battle would also support the Panthers at five-on-five. They have a 55.27 expected goals share (xG%) at that game state through four games. Sample size be damned, but they will likely carry play at five-on-five moving forward because they have a deeper and more talented roster. Don’t let special teams be the reason the Lightning manage to get themselves back in the series.
Panthers Need a Faster Start
I don’t know if there was a bit of a sense of complacency to start Game 4 because they had a 3-0 series lead. The Lightning knew what the stakes were, too, so I’m sure that played a factor in this as well. But the Panthers need to get off to a faster start in Game 5.
The Lightning had total control of the first period in Game 4, generating 1.09 expected goals and a 66.67 xG%. It’s no surprise they took a 3-0 lead into the first intermission based on how they dominated the Panthers in the opening frame.
The positive here is that the Panthers showed some pushback in the second period, scoring three goals to make it a 4-3 deficit heading into the third period. They tilted the ice in their favor in the second, totaling a 70.62 xG% and nearly tying the game early in the third period when Sam Reinhart wired a shot off the crossbar.
Another positive for the Panthers is that they outscored the Lightning 3-1 at five-on-five. The Bolts got their goals through special teams or four-on-four situations. Given how the Panthers have played at five-on-five this series, I don’t think there’s much to clean up in this regard. They’ve been the better team when the game is at full strength. They just need to get off to a more urgent start and make the Lightning chase the game instead of it being the other way around.
Panthers Bullets
- If there’s a line that can put the Lightning away early, it’s Matthew Tkachuk, Anton Lundell and Carter Verhaeghe. They’re together because Sam Bennett is out with an injury, but they’re giving head coach Paul Maurice exactly what he wants. They have a 70.86 xG% as a unit this series and a 3-0 goal differential. The Lightning have had trouble defending them, and with Maurice having last change tonight, I’d expect him to take advantage and get them in favorable spots.
- It’s hard to fault Sergei Bobrovsky for all the goals he gave up in Game 4, but the Panthers need him to be a little bit better. He has an .874 save percentage this series while giving up 1.81 goals above expected. A quality start would go a long way in eliminating the Lightning.
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