Flyers playoff scenarios: How Philly can still make the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2024 originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
VOORHEES, N.J. — The final game of the regular season will hold plenty of meaning for the Flyers.
But, other games matter, too, if the Flyers’ rebuild wants to meet the playoffs.
The Flyers host the Capitals on Tuesday in the regular-season finale for each club (7 p.m. ET/NBCSP). Two days ago, on a busy Saturday in the race, the Flyers learned they could not finish in third place of the Metropolitan Division.
The Islanders are in third place and, per MoneyPuck.com, have a 90 percent chance to fend off the Capitals and Penguins to finish there.
So the Flyers are battling three other teams for the Eastern Conference’s second and final wild-card spot. Those three teams — the Capitals, Red Wings and Penguins — all play Monday night to catch up to the Flyers in games played.
The Flyers, Capitals and Red Wings have 87 points, while the Penguins have 86.
The Flyers enter Monday with an 18 percent chance to make playoffs, according to MoneyPuck.com, and a 3.5 percent chance, per Hockey-Reference.com.
Let’s first look at the schedule over the next three days for all four teams:
Monday
WSH vs. BOS — 7 p.m. ET
DET vs. MTL — 7 p.m. ET
PIT vs. NSH — 7 p.m. ET
Tuesday
PHI vs. WSH — 7 p.m. ET
DET at MTL — 7 p.m. ET
Wednesday
PIT at NYI — 7 p.m. ET
That’s some scoreboard watching for the Flyers.
“There are so many different scenarios and we still have tonight’s games to play,” head coach John Tortorella said Monday after practice. “People are going to fill me in on what’s going on. I’m not going to be there on my phone. What happens, happens. I know how we’re preparing for our game, so there’s no sense of getting too locked into the other stuff. We need to take care of our stuff.”
There is no scenario in which the Flyers can lose Tuesday and still make the playoffs. They must win and also get some help. With that said, here’s what the Flyers need from each team in order to clinch the second wild-card spot.
Lots of Flyers-Capitals tiebreakers to sort out
Even if Washington wins tonight, the Flyers can still pass the Capitals. Both teams are tied in three tiebreakers — regulation wins (30), regulation/overtime wins (34) and overall wins (38).
If Washington beats Boston in regulation, the Flyers would have to beat the Capitals in regulation. If Washington beats Boston in overtime or the shootout, the Flyers would be fine if they beat the Capitals in regulation or overtime.
Because the final tiebreaker for the Flyers and Capitals could come down to more points in the head-to-head regular-season series or goal differential for the entire regular season. The Flyers and Capitals split their first two meetings. The Flyers won in a shootout, so they have two points compared to Washington’s three.
If the Flyers beat the Capitals after regulation, causing both teams to have the same number of points in the head-to-head series, the Flyers should finish with a better goal differential. The Flyers enter Monday at minus-25 and the Capitals minus-40.
If Washington earns one or no points tonight, the Flyers could beat the Capitals in any fashion and finish ahead of them.
Red Wings need to lose at least once
Even if the Flyers win Tuesday, they can’t make the playoffs if Detroit wins its final two games over the Canadiens or picks up three points. The Red Wings going 2-0-0 or 1-0-1 would eliminate the Flyers.
If Detroit picks up only two points over its final two games (one win or two losses after regulation), the Flyers would hold the tiebreaker in regulation wins.
Penguins could have two tiebreakers over Flyers
Even if the Flyers win Tuesday, they can’t make the playoffs if Pittsburgh wins its final two games or picks up three points via a win in regulation or overtime and a loss after regulation.
In a scenario in which the Penguins earn three points via a win in regulation or overtime and a loss after regulation, they would own the tiebreakers over the Flyers in regulation wins and regulation/overtime wins.
If Pittsburgh was to pick up three points via a shootout win and a loss after regulation, the Flyers would have to beat the Capitals in regulation to win the tiebreaker over the Penguins. Both teams would be tied in regulation wins and regulation/overtime wins. The next tiebreaker would be overall wins and the Flyers would have one more.
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