The halfway point of the NHL season has come and gone. We’re officially in the second half of the season, meaning we’re beginning to get a very good idea of which teams are good and which teams aren’t. To the surprise of nobody, teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche are near the top of the league in terms of Stanley Cup odds.
However, there’s one team that is near the top of the league that might be sliding under the radar. The Calgary Flames have been the league’s hottest team in recent weeks, and we might be reaching the “last call” before their dominance becomes mainstream news.
Calgary has been red hot
Any fan who has been following the NHL knows that the season has been unofficially divided into three distinct parts. The start of the season was normal, with fans in arenas and very few players missing games. Then, there was a month or so period in December where half of the league’s games were being postponed every night and teams were playing games with AHL lineups. Once the NHL loosened testing protocols, the season has returned to being fairly normal over the past few weeks.
The Calgary Flames opened the season with a 7-1-3 record through their first eleven games and a 15-4-5 record through Dec. 3. It was an electric start for the Flames, but then COVID hit the team and the league. Calgary went on to post a 2-7-1 record over its next 10 games. On Jan. 15, the Flames had their game postponed for one final time. Over the 13 games since then, the Flames are 11-2. They’ve won eight straight games.
If you take out the middle stretch of the season that was impacted by cancellations, minor league lineups and empty arenas, the Flames have been absolutely unreal. Calgary’s record during “normalcy” this season is 26-6-5. It’s on an insane run right now. Over their last 13 games, the Flames are outscoring their opponents 59-25. Quick math tells me they’re scoring almost 4.5 goals a game while giving up less than two goals a night over this stretch.
The argument for the Flames
When analyzing a team’s chance at winning a championship in the NHL, I think it’s important to analyze three factors.
First and foremost, I take a look at its analytical profile. Is this team actually playing good hockey, or are there results driven by some luck? Well, Calgary currently leads the NHL in expected goal rate at 5-on-5, according to NaturalStatTrick. For those unfamiliar with the stat, it basically combines the quantity and quality of chances a team generates and allows. Calgary ranks third in expected goals scored per hour and eighth in expected goals allowed. Calgary also ranks second in shot-attempt share and high-danger chance percentage. No luck here, this team is the better team in almost every game it plays.
The team has plenty of offense. Johnny Gaudreau is back to being one of the very best point producers in the league. Calgary’s first line with Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk is one of the very best. Andrew Mangiapane has come out of nowhere to be a prolific goal scorer. The team just traded for Tyler Toffoli, a Stanley Cup winner who has eclipsed 20 goals six times in his career. Pieces like Sean Monahan and Blake Coleman give the Flames good depth. Depth is a must come playoff time.
Next, I look at a team’s goaltending. You can’t win in the playoffs without solid goaltending. Jacob Markstrom has been inconsistent over his NHL career, but it he’s definitely having one of his good seasons this year. According to Evolving-Hockey, Markstrom currently ranks third among all NHL goaltenders in terms of “goals saved above average.” Markstrom has eight shutouts on the season, which is double the second-highest mark in the league. He ranks fourth in both goals-against average and save percentage.
Finally, I look at a team’s path in the playoffs. The longer you can avoid the elite teams in your conference, the better. Calgary currently leads the Pacific Division and has -175 odds to win the division, according to BetMGM. Vegas is probably Calgary’s biggest competition, but it seems like it’ll be without starting goaltender Robin Lehner for a while. Edmonton is too flawed for me to seriously worry about them, and I’m not buying any of the California teams as legitimate contenders.
If Calgary wins its division, it will avoid the Colorado Avalanche until at least the conference finals. Who knows? Maybe another team will take the Avalanche out before they get there. Maybe they get worn down and suffer an injury or two. The longer you can avoid a top team in the playoffs, the better. Calgary is in good position to avoid Colorado for as long as it can. Colorado is the current Stanley Cup favorite.
Last chance to buy the Flames?
Full disclosure, I have been following the Flames’ odds over the past few weeks. I’ve watched their Stanley Cup odds go down from 28-to-1 to their current number of 18-to-1. While we missed the best number, I think there’s still value here.
The market is clearly respecting the Flames and for good reason. They check all the boxes. They have high-end talent, they have depth, their analytical profile is elite, they get good goaltending, and they have a decent path forward.
I view the Flames as the second best team in the West right now, and at 18-to-1, I want that ticket in my betting portfolio.
