There have been some ups and downs for the Toronto Maple Leafs as they adjust to life under Craig Berube. The team is performing consistently with their starts to previous seasons, but question marks still exist up and down the lineup card. One of the players that has provided the Leafs with an upgrade is Matthew Knies, who is now sitting with seven goals and nine points through the first 14 games of the season, an improvement over his three goal, seven point start to the first 14 games of his rookie season last year.
Beyond the points, Knies has looked comfortable in his top line role and has embraced the all-situation assignments that go along with playing with 200-foot players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. For an organization that has been starved for their next Gary Roberts-type player, it is starting to look like Knies is that fit, and that is a bright spot that the Maple Leafs will embrace regardless of the cost.
Of course, the cost still matters and after last season the Leafs scoffing at William Nylander’s rumoured $10M AAV demands in the preseason only to pay him an $11.5M AAV, it is worth considering just how much the happiness of having Matthew Knies under contract will cost the Maple Leafs.
Before the start of the 2024-25 season, Knies already looked like a strong candidate to get paid. His 15-goal, 35-point rookie year might not have put him in Calder’s consideration, but it showed the upside for his sophomore follow-up that Knies is now 14 games into realizing. Knies’ contract looked like it would at least mirror those of former 1st-round picks like Dawson Mercer, Cole Perfetti, and Jake Neighbours. All three players who opted to go with bridge deals for their next contracts:
| Player | AAV | Term | Start of Contract |
| Dawson Mercer | $4M | 3 | 2024-25 |
| Jake Neighbours | $3.75M | 2 | 2025-26 |
| Kirby Dach | $3.36M | 4 | 2022-23 |
| Cole Perfetti | $3.25M | 2 | 2023-24 |
| Nils Hoglander | $3M | 2 | 2025-26 |
| Alex Newhook | $2.9M | 4 | 2023-24 |
The outputs for Knies are in line with the above players during their 21-year old seasons, with the exception of Nils Hoglander, all of those players as come with the additional expectations levied on them from being first round picks, something that Knies isn’t, but has certainly come to be treated as.
As seen by his 2023-24 Goals Above Replacement, Knies and Neighbours are somewhat comparable, although Knies was the stronger 5v5 player:
Each of these players are reasonable comparisons for Knies, but none fit the top line power forward role that Knies does and that is something that if a bridge deal were to be considered, it would certainly see the Maple Leafs paying on the higher side of these AAVs.
The speculation is that the Maple Leafs aren’t interested in going short term with Knies. He’s a player they want and craved for a long time. The parade of David Clarkson, Wayne Simmonds, Nick Ritchie, etc. (purposely ignoring the Mason Marchment misstep) that has come through the Maple Leafs organization points to Knies being someone they want as a long-term fit and when considering that, Knies is potentially a more expensive part of the Leafs roster going forward.
The comparable contracts for Knies when you look at production as a 21-year old are pretty expensive and are limited to some of the peak young talent of the NHL, a group that Knies would like to be in the company of and if his results mirror theirs, a deal that would be worth every penny from a Leafs perspective.
| Player | AAV | Term | Start of Contract |
| Cole Caufield | $7.85M | 8 | 2023-24 |
| Alexis Lafreniere | $7.45M | 7 | 2025-26 |
| Matthew Beniers | $7.41M | 7 | 2024-25 |
| Dylan Guenther | $7.14M | 8 | 2025-26 |
| Quinton Byfield | $6.25M | 5 | 2024-25 |
Beniers and Lafreniere are two players that certainly stand out as high potential and high draft pedigree players. Cole Caufield is a player who demonstrated their value in the league before their payday, while Dylan Guenther is slightly younger than Knies, but fills a similar role and delivered nearly identical results to Knies last year and so far this season.
Byfield’s lower cap hit and slightly shorter term are an encouraging alternative for Leafs fans looking to be encouraged that there is still a cheaper deal out there, as Byfield’s $6.25M AAV came after a 55 point season.
The player that might fit best as a comparator for Knies, at least before Knies’ numbers start demonstrating an excessive amount of finishing ability, is Anton Lundell. Lundell has a 6-year $5M AAV deal that the Leafs would happily emulate. The winning situation and quality of life benefits of playing in Florida might also point to money being left on the table, but ignoring those assumptions provides the Leafs with a reasonable long-term contract option to use for Knies. This would likely require the Leafs to act fast.
The acting fast option may not be available to the Maple Leafs. While it is rumoured that the Maple Leafs and Knies have engaged in some preliminary contract discussions, that doesn’t assure that a conclusion will come quickly. Knies could be betting on himself and early returns this year support that being the right choice for him. With the salary cap going up there is every reason to believe that Knies will also be able to push for numbers north of whatever comparable player be it Lundell, Byfield, Guenther, etc. based off of percentage of the cap. Presumably, each day brings a more expensive contract for Matthew Knies.
None of this changes that a signed Matthew Knies is still the best outcome for the Leafs and as the salary cap becomes less relevant as the ceiling continues to increase, enjoying a capable power forward on the Leafs top line seems like the most important takeaway.
Data from PuckPedia and Evolving Hockey
