With a 7-2-1 run over their last ten games, the Toronto Maple Leafs have pulled to within one point of the Florida Panthers in the Atlantic Division race. Toronto is 8-3-0 on home ice this season, and have managed a record of 5-1-0 during the time that Auston Matthews has been sidelined.
Those numbers might suggest they deserve to be a larger favorite than -125 in Wednesday’s matchup, but the Vegas Golden Knights are looking like a pretty formidable side as well sitting atop the Pacific Division with its 11-5-2 record.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Golden Knights vs. Leafs Odds
- Golden Knights Moneyline Odds: +105
- Leafs Moneyline Odds: -125
- Puck Line Odds: Golden Knights +1.5 (-230), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -120)
Vegas Golden Knights:
After suffering a first round playoff elimination at the hands of the Dallas Stars last season, it feels like the Golden Knights came into this season flying a little under the radar. There is a lot to like about their strong start to the season though, and if they are to receive better than average goaltending from Adin Hill and Ilya Samsonov, another deep playoff run is a firm possibility.
Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev continue to power a strong first line. Vegas’ top unit has been less effective since Mark Stone was sidelined with a lower body injury, but should still be a strength moving forward with Pavel Dorofeyev taking Stone’s place.
Tomas Hertl has put up 14 points over the last 12 games, and offers significant scoring upside to the second line. William Karlsson has put up nine points in ten games since returning to the lineup. He will likely centre Brett Howden and Alexander Holtz in this matchup, which offers the Knights a potent third unit.
The Knights power play has clicked at a 34 percent rate this season, and should continue to be a strength moving forward. Dorofeyev offers a tremendous one-timer from the right circle, and makes life tough for opposing penalty kills looking to cheat over to Eichel on the other side.
A deep, mobile defence core has been the back-bone of the Knights roster their brief tenure in the league, and it remains a significant strength this season. Alex Pietrangelo might not be the player he once was, but there are plenty of other pieces to help make up for his lesser play.
The Knights have played to a 51.71% expected goal share over the last ten games, and hold a +15 goal differential this season.
It’s unclear whether or not we will see the Knights opt to hand Ilya Samsonov the opportunity to face his former side in this matchup or not. Samsonov has posted a -0.3 GSAx and .896 save percentage this season, while Adin Hill has played to a -0.3 GSAx and .885 save percentage.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
As we have typically seen during the “Core Four” era, the Leafs have made an excellent push this November to bolster the chances of attaining a ninth consecutive playoff berth.
Head coach Craig Berube has leaned on a well-rounded team game to help cover the loss of its best player for the time being. The power play has been excellent, and strong defensive play has allowed Toronto’s goaltending tandem to continue its excellent start to the season. In six games without Matthews, the Leafs hold a 53.67% expected goal share, and allowed only 2.65 xGA/60.
After a slow start to the season, Bobby McMann has come to life with three goals and 11 shots over the last two games. After McMann put together such an excellent finish to last season it was surprising to see him get off to a rough start this month. He will remain a particularly important piece with Max Domi now also missing from the top-six, and is set to remain on the top line in this matchup.
Fraser Minten skated alongside Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg on a new-look third line at Tuesday’s practice.
The Leafs look to be keeping the same defensive units as we saw in Saturday’s overtime win over the Oilers.
Joseph Woll has been confirmed as the Leafs starting goaltender in this matchup. He has played to a .902 save % and 2.40 GAA across five starts this season, and has won two consecutive starts entering this matchup.
Best Bets for Golden Knights vs Leafs:
There is a lot to like about the Knights roster right now, and they really don’t have many glaring weaknesses on paper. With William Karlsson healthy they currently have superior depth down the middle compared to the Leafs, and have a number of high quality wingers help round out the top three lines.
Vegas’ blue-line has always been a strength, as it is offering a number of sizeable, mobile, defenders that do a good job of getting plays moving the other way.
The Knights have the potential to trend towards better even strength play moving forward, and their powerplay should remain excellent.
The Leafs haven’t been overly dominant offensively in the time that Matthews has been sidelined, and this should be a tough matchup to create while playing without several regular top-nine forwards.
This looks like a good spot to buy on Vegas on the road as it enters on ideal rest versus a depleted Leafs lineup. I’m happy with the number being offered (+105), and see value backing the Knights at anything better than +100 in this matchup.
Best Bet: Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline -105 (Sports Interaction, Play to +100)
