Two heavyweights will go head-to-head Saturday night as the New York Rangers visit Scotiabank Arena to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Both teams have won three of four games in the early going, and are considered among the top-six most likely teams to win the Stanley Cup this season by oddsmakers.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favorite betting angles bets below.
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Odds
- Rangers Moneyline Odds: +110
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -130
- Puck Line Odds: Rangers +1.5 (-230), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -125, under +105)
New York Rangers
Despite featuring highly pedestrian play at 5-on-5, the Rangers have lost in the Eastern Conference Finals in two of the last three seasons — hard for any Leafs fan to argue that accomplishment isn’t easy. In those two series, the Rangers were heavily outplayed at even strength, and will likely need to improve in that regard if they are to win it all this season.
The Rangers have been a juggernaut across all strengths throughout their opening four matchups of this young season. They hold a +11 goal differential, and own a 56.23% expected goal share. They have averaged 35.98 shots for per 60, which ranks first in the league.
The caveat to all of those notes though is that the Rangers have not played anything close to a contender at this point. The Red Wings (played twice), Utah Hockey Club, and Penguins are all 50/1 or longer to win the Cup this season. You can only beat the team in front of you, but it might be a reach to say the Rangers have already proven they will be a much improved side at even strength at this point.
Artemi Panarin has been incredible in a league leading 11 points. Alexis Lafreniere has looked excellent playing alongside Panarin, and has put up at least a point in all four games thus far.
Filip Chytil is healthy and in good form, which is something the Rangers sorely missed last season. Chytil, William Cuylle and Kaapo Kakko have compiled a strong third unit, which holds a 70.8% expected goal share in 41.7 minutes.
The greatest concern in the early going for the Blueshirts’ has to be the play of Mika Zibanejad, who is centering a second line which currently looks like a clear weakness relative to other Eastern Conference contenders once again. The Rangers second line has allowed 3.47 xGA/60 in 38.1 minutes together this season.
Igor Shesterkin got the night off Thursday in Detroit, and will almost certainly get this important start as a result. Ongoing contract negotiations don’t look to be affecting his play by any means, as he holds a .920 save % and +2.3 GSAx in his initial three appearances this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
Craig Berube’s Leafs haven’t allowed more than two goals in any matchup this season, and that has a number of Leafs fans feeling pretty good. Toronto’s goaltenders have achieved the leagues third best save percentage of .933 thus far, which is another positive comment towards the teams defensive play.
Chris Tanev has been as advertised, in providing a stabilizing defensive force on the top unit. While his play in the defensive zone is excellent, he moves the puck well and does a great job of driving play the other way, which is different than many of the more defensive defenders Toronto has rostered in seasons past.
Tanev and Rielly have played to a 62.5% expected goal share in 47.3 minutes this season, and will play an important role in attempting to shutdown Panarin and the Rangers top line in this matchup.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson is also looking like a great offseason pickup and has been effective on the second unit, as well as in a new role on the top powerplay unit. He has provided value both in fantasy and the betting markets, in posting three points and 15 shots through four games. He remained on the top powerplay unit at yesterday’s practice.
Berube kept his offensive lines the same at Friday’s practice as they were versus the Kings. Joseph Woll and Calle Jarnkrok remain the only notable Leafs on the IR ahead of this matchup.
Anthony Stolarz is expected to get this start. He holds a +3.0 GSAx and .972 save % in three appearances this season, after posting a league leading .925 save % (minimum 25 starts) in 2023-24.
Best Bets for Rangers vs Maple Leafs:
It’s going to be very interesting to see how these two contenders look in a head-to-head matchup, as this game provides an early measuring to both sides. My expectation is both teams bring strong performances in this matchup and we see a highly competitive game.
With Shesterkin and Stolarz squaring off that should mean close score-lines throughout, and at +333 I see value backing the game to require overtime.
The other angle I like is backing Ekman-Larsson to record his first goal as a Maple Leaf at +900. He ranks second on the team in shots on goal and shot attempts, which is including the sample of games where he wasn’t on the top powerplay unit. While those shots are mainly from the point and less dangerous than average, +900 is hard to pass up given the way he is pouring pucks on goal this season.
Best Bet: Regulation Tie SportsInteraction (+333, Play to +320), Oliver Ekman-Larsson Anytime Goalscorer +900 (SportsInteraction, Play to +850)
