Last but not least in our offseason division roundup is the Pacific. The race in the top four was one of the most competitive in 2023-24, but some of the league’s worst teams were also in the Pacific. While many teams improved, it might not necessarily lead to change in what looks like a top-heavy division.
Vancouver Canucks
2023-24 season: 50-23-9, 109 points, 1st in Pacific
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Jake DeBrusk (7 years)
- Signed Danton Heinen (2 years)
- Signed Daniel Sprong (1 year)
- Signed Kiefer Sherwood (2 years)
- Signed Derek Forbort (1 year)
- Signed Vincent Desharnais (2 years)
- Re-signed Tyler Myers (3 years)
- Re-signed Dakota Joshua (4 years)
- Re-signed Teddy Blueger (2 years)
- Re-signed Filip Hronek (8 years)
Key departures:
Elias Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov, Ian Cole, Ilya Mikheyev, Casey DeSmith
Canucks GM Patrik Allvin wasn’t going to sit around and run it back after the team surprised everyone and won the Pacific a season ago. The Canucks did ride some crazy PDO percentages to start the season, but they were an excellent team, and their offseason moves should help build on that.
Jake DeBrusk should add some middle-six scoring, while Kiefer Sherwood, Danton Heinen and Daniel Sprong strengthen the bottom six by adding scoring, physicality and a bit of everything in between. And bringing help from the outside isn’t where Allvin stopped, either.
Related: Central Division Better Balanced Heading Into 2024-25
The Canucks gave Filip Hronek a massive eight-year extension, though I’m not sure how that will hold up. They also brought back Tyler Myers, Teddy Blueger and Dakota Joshua. This looks like a pretty good team on paper, even if there seems to be uncertainty about Thatcher Demko’s status to begin 2024-25.
The Canucks added a net of 3.9 wins this summer, so they’ve improved. Sure, there’s probably some PDO regression coming, and Demko potentially being out changes the outlook for this team. Still, their over/under is 99.5, so playoffs should be the expectation. They just might not win the division again.
Edmonton Oilers
2023-24 season: 49-27-6, 104 points, 2nd in Pacific — Western Conference Champs
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Viktor Arvidsson (2 years)
- Signed Jeff Skinner (1 year)
- Signed Josh Brown (3 years)
- Re-signed Adam Henrique (2 years)
- Re-signed Corey Perry (1 year)
- Re-signed Mattias Janmark (2 years)
- Acquired Vasily Podkolzin
- Acquired Ty Emberson
Key departures:
Warren Foegele, Cody Ceci, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, Vincent Desharnais
It’s been quite the offseason for the Oilers, huh? It started great, with the signings of Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner in free agency. Arvidsson missed plenty of time with an injury last season, but he’s still capable of 60-65 points if he can stay on the ice. Skinner may not be what he was at his peak, but he’s still a 20-25 goal-scorer at a minimum.
The Oilers also retained some key depth players in Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark and Corey Perry. At this point, it looked like their offseason was over, but how about those sneaky St. Louis Blues? It’s not often you see an offer sheet, let alone two, in the NHL. But the Blues tendered offer sheets to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway.
Because of their limited cap space, the Oilers let Holloway and Broberg walk and join the Blues. Holloway and Broberg hadn’t broken out with the Oilers, but it still does make the team weaker and, most importantly, older. Accounting for all this, the Oilers subtracted 2.4 wins from last season’s roster.
Context is important, though. Arvidsson will make a difference if he stays healthy, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Skinner’s underlying metrics improve on a better team. The Oilers may have one of the oldest rosters in the NHL, but they also look like a very competitive team on paper. Their O/U is 108.5, making them favorites to win the Pacific, as they should be.
Los Angeles Kings
2023-24 season: 44-27-11, 99 points, 3rd in Pacific
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Warren Foegele (3 years)
- Signed Joel Edmundson (4 years)
- Acquired Darcy Kuemper
- Acquired Tanner Jeannot
Key departures:
Viktor Arvidsson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cam Talbot, Matt Roy, Blake Lizotte, Carl Grundstrom
I expected some sweeping changes for the Kings after getting ousted by the Oilers for the third consecutive year in the playoffs, but GM Rob Blake made some odd moves. Signing Joel Edmundson to a four-year contract in 2024 should put a GM on the hot seat, as he’s declined significantly and has been a net-negative player for a couple of years.
Likewise, acquiring Tanner Jeannot seems like a head-scratcher. He has just 32 points in his last 131 games, an average of 20 per 82 games. His 24-goal season in 2021-22, when he shot 19.4 percent, sure looks like a fluke.
Darcy Kuemper was once one of the NHL’s most underrated goalies, but Father Time may be catching up to him, though it’s hard to say with goalies. Warren Foegele is a solid addition up front and will add some speed and scoring in the middle six, but it’s hard to say the Kings improved this summer. They lost 6.4 wins from last season’s team, and while I don’t think they’ll be 12-14 points worse in the standings, they might be fighting for their playoff lives in March and April.
Vegas Golden Knights
2023-24 season: 45-29-8, 98 points, 4th in Pacific
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Victor Olofsson (1 year)
- Signed Ilya Samsonov (1 year)
- Signed Tanner Laczynski (2 years)
- Signed Zach Aston-Reese (1 year)
- Acquired Alexander Holtz
- Acquired Akira Schmid
Key departures:
Jonathan Marchessault, Anthony Mantha, Michael Amadio, Chandler Stephenson, Logan Thompson, William Carrier, Alec Martinez
The Golden Knights’ cap situation was going to catch up to them at some point, and that seems to have been the case this summer. While there were some modest additions, the story of their offseason was the departures of some important players, most notably Jonathan Marchessault, who signed with the Nashville Predators.
There weren’t many additions to make up for losing Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson and the rest of their departures. The Golden Knights are hoping Alexander Holtz can break out and finally look like the top-ten pick he was in 2020. Ilya Samsonov will replace Logan Thompson in net, but he struggled with the Toronto Maple Leafs last season.
Overall, the Golden Knights lost 5.4 wins from last season’s team. Like the Kings, I don’t think they’ll be 10-12 points worse in the standings. They didn’t improve this offseason, but they’re still a good team and should be in the playoff hunt (their O/U is 97.5). It’s just the final weeks of the regular season could be a bit nerve-wracking.
Calgary Flames
2023-24 season: 38-39-5, 81 points, 5th in Pacific
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Anthony Mantha (1 year)
- Signed Jake Bean (2 years)
- Signed Ryan Lomberg (2 years)
- Acquired Kevin Bahl
Key departures:
Jacob Markström, Andrew Mangiapane, Oliver Kylington
The Calgary Flames don’t rebuild or retool often, but it appears that’s the direction GM Craig Conroy is heading. Anthony Mantha had a rebound year in 2023-24, totaling 23 goals and 44 points in 74 games, and could be a hot commodity at the 2025 trade deadline if he produces at a similar rate.
Kevin Bahl should also help add some defensive depth in a third-pair role, but most of the Flames’ additions were modest. Their biggest transaction was trading Jacob Markström to the New Jersey Devils. That paves the way for Dustin Wolf to get regular minutes in the NHL, but moving Markström will likely be a tremendous loss.
The Flames lost just 0.1 wins from last year’s team, Markström included, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they finish worse in the standings without Markström. Their O/U for this season is 81.5, and it’s hard to imagine they qualify for the postseason without a proven, high-end netminder.
Seattle Kraken
2023-24 season: 34-35-13, 81 points, 6th in the Pacific
Notable offseason moves:
- Signed Chandler Stephenson (7 years)
- Signed Brandon Montour (7 years)
Key departures:
Kailer Yamamoto, Justin Schultz, Brian Dumoulin, Tomáš Tatar
The Kraken had an interesting offseason, handing out two of the worst free-agent contracts of 2024 by signing Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour to seven-year deals worth AAVs north of $6 and $7 million.
Let’s start with Montour, who should be an upgrade for the Kraken despite the hefty price tag ($7.14 million AAV) if they deploy him properly. Would I have him on the ice in shutdown minutes? Probably not, but he should help create more offense from the back end. This deal may age poorly, but at least he helps in the short term.
As for Stephenson, I’m not sure what the Kraken’s thought process was for giving him a seven-year deal. He struggled quite a bit with the Golden Knights last season and is now on the wrong side of 30. Perhaps he can help as a second-line center behind Matty Beniers, but I’m unsure if that’ll be the case.
The Kraken lost 0.8 wins from last season’s team, but I do like the rest of the roster and the pieces they’ll return this season. Their O/U is 87.5, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they fight for a wild-card spot in the West.
Anaheim Ducks
2023-24 season: 27-50-9, 59 points, 7th in Pacific
Notable offseason moves:
- Acquired Brian Dumoulin
- Acquired Robby Fabbri
Key departures:
Jakob Silfverberg (retired)
It was a quiet offseason for the Anaheim Ducks and GM Pat Verbeek. Brian Dumoulin had a rebound season with the Kraken in 2023-24 and will help stabilize the Ducks’ defense in a bottom-four role. Robby Fabbri totaled 18 goals and 32 points in 68 games last season — a 22-goal, 39-point pace over 82 games — and might help add some scoring depth in the middle six.
You never know when a team as young as the Ducks could make a jump, but I wouldn’t bet on it happening this season. There will be internal growth, and the Ducks should be better than a 59-point team (their O/U is 70.5), but they’re likely still a year or two away from making noise in the Pacific.
San Jose Sharks
2023-24 season: 19-54-7, 47 points, 8th in Pacific
Notable offseason moves:
- Drafted Macklin Celebrini 1st overall
- Signed Tyler Toffoli (4 years)
- Signed Alexander Wennberg (2 years)
- Signed Carl Grundstrom (2 years)
- Signed Ty Dellandrea (2 years)
- Acquired Jake Walman
- Acquired Cody Ceci
- Acquired Yaroslav Askarov
Key departures:
Alexander Barabanov, Filip Zadina, Mike Hoffman, Kevin Labanc, Calen Addison, Kyle Burroughs
To say the Sharks were bad last season would be an understatement, so it’s not a surprise GM Mike Grier was busy this offseason. It started by taking Macklin Celebrini with the first overall pick at the NHL Draft. He may not be a generational talent, but he will likely have a significant impact as a rookie.
Soon after drafting Celebrini, Grier got to work bringing in some support for him. He signed Tyler Toffoli, a 30-plus goal scorer the last two seasons, to a four-year contract. He also brought in Alexander Wennberg, who should help provide some depth in a middle-six role, while Carl Grundstrom and Ty Dellandrea will round out the bottom six.
On defense, the Sharks acquired Jake Walman and a second-round pick for nothing in return. I’m not sure why the Detroit Red Wings would do that, but that’s a top-four upgrade at no cost for the Sharks. Cody Ceci may have been acquired as a cap dump from the Oilers, but he should be fine as a bottom-pair defender for one year.
The Sharks’ skater group looks better, but the real coup was getting prized prospect Yaroslav Askarov from the Predators. The top goaltending prospect in the NHL will likely get NHL minutes at some point this season, but even if he doesn’t, he’s the long-term piece they were missing in a now-rich-with-talent prospect pool.
The Sharks may be a better team heading into 2024-25, but make no mistake, they’re unlikely to be playoff-caliber. Their O/U is 64.5, which would be a significant step forward, but there’s probably more pain to come before it truly gets better.
Pacific Prediction
Even though it looks like there’s some improvement to the bottom half of the Pacific, it still appears to be a top-heavy division, meaning there might not be much change. If one of the Kings or Golden Knights gets knocked out of a playoff position, it’s likely to come from a Central team like the Minnesota Wild or maybe Utah HC.
But even then, I see a similar top four playing out, just with different positioning. Perhaps the Kraken can challenge for a wild-card spot, but there’s a pretty big gap they need to make up to do so.
- Oilers: 112 points
- Canucks: 105 points
- Golden Knights: 99 points
- Kings: 94 points (WC2)
- Kraken: 89 points
- Flames: 77 points
- Ducks: 72 points
- Sharks: 63 points
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Advanced stats from Evolving Hockey
