QBs dominate NFL Draft Round 1; Explaining Falcons’ shocking choice; Lakers on the brink

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🏈 Good morning to everyone but especially …

THE NFL DRAFT FIRST-ROUND SELECTIONS, LED BY THE QUARTERBACKS

We knew the NFL Draft was loaded with offense and particularly with quarterbacks. We didn’t know it was this loaded. The first 14 overall picks were offensive players, the longest streak for one side of the ball in the modern era. Furthermore, four quarterbacks went in the top eight, and six went in the top 12.

• 1. Bears: Caleb Williams, USC (analysis)
• 2. Commanders: Jayden Daniels, LSU (analysis)
• 3. Patriots: Drake Maye, North Carolina (analysis)
• 8. Falcons: Michael Penix Jr., Washington (analysis)
• 10. Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (analysis)
• 12. Broncos: Bo Nix, Oregon (analysis)

The shocker was Penix to Atlanta, and we’ll get to that in a bit. Nix to Denver was probably next-most surprising, but Sean Payton covets quarterbacks who operate on time. That’s why Nix is there and Russell Wilson isn’t.

But let’s talk about Williams to Chicago. Even though we knew it was coming, Bears fans should be ecstatic it finally arrived. He’s outstanding, and he’s going to one of the best situations we’ve ever seen for a No. 1 pick. Cody Benjamin has Williams atop the best player-team fits of the quarterbacks taken, and Will Brinson declared him a winner.

• The Bears already had D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet and D’Andre Swift as weapons and then added Rome Odunze ninth overall.
• The offensive line has some young talent, but it isn’t great. Guess what? Over the last two seasons, Williams threw for 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions when pressured.
• The Bears have a strong, promising defense. Williams won’t have to play hero ball like he did for defense-averse USC.

While offense ruled the day early, I liked the Seahawks drafting defensive lineman Byron Murphy II 16th, the Eagles taking cornerback Quinyon Mitchell 22nd (one of Round 1’s biggest steals, per Chris Trapasso) and the Lions jumping up and selecting cornerback Terrion Arnold 24th.

Here’s everything from the wild night that was:

Finally, after a historically offense-heavy first round, could things swing the other way next year? There are still 225 picks to go in 2024, but Ryan Wilson already has a 2025 first-round mock. 

😃 Honorable mentions

😨 And not such a good morning for …

KIRK COUSINS AND THE ATLANTA FALCONS

A dozen years ago, Kirk Cousins came into the NFL as a surprise fourth-round selection after Washington had already selected Robert Griffin III second overall. Cousins would go on to replace him.

My, how the tables have turned. The Falcons selecting Penix eighth overall surprised almost everyone, including Cousins, who was only told it was happening when Atlanta was on the clock and reportedly was “shocked” and “disappointed” by the decision.

There are several reasons for that.

1. A month and a half after he signed a four-year, $180-million deal with the Falcons, they drafted his likely successor.
2. Cousins got no notice.
3. Cousins came to the Falcons to win now, and Penix isn’t a win-now move. Atlanta could have drafted a wide receiver opposite Drake London or a pass rusher to boost a defense that finished 25th in pressure rate.

Believe it or not, though, teams have reasons for doing things — even surprising things. Cousins will be 36 in August and coming off a torn Achilles. His four-year deal includes just two years guaranteed. The ideal scenario is what happened to the Packers, who drafted Jordan Love in 2020, opting not to enhance Aaron Rodgers‘ supporting cast. Now, Love is an ascending star with promising playmakers around him. Cousins isn’t on Rodgers’ level as a player, either, and he’s coming off a major injury.

But Love was 21 when he was drafted and clearly needed development. Penix is about to turn 24 and seems closer to his ceiling. While Love ultimately worked out, the Packers missed out on pairing Rodgers with Tee Higgins or adding a defender like Patrick Queen, both moves that would have elevated Green Bay’s Super Bowl chances.

Things still could work out just fine. Cousins could (and should) get over his initial frustration. Penix could be an elite short-term insurance policy and long-term answer. The Falcons could hit on other positions or see players already on the roster step up. But that’s a lot of “could,” and Atlanta is risking a lot, Cody writes.

😕 Not so honorable mentions

🏀 Lakers on the brink; Joel Embiid’s 50-point game saves 76ers

They say a series really doesn’t start until the home team loses. If that’s the case, the Nuggets–Lakers series has started — and it’s all but ended as well. Denver used a massive third quarter to win, 112-105, and take a 3-0 series lead.

• For just the fourth time in franchise playoff history, four Nuggets scored 20+ points: Aaron Gordon (29), Nikola Jokic (24), Jamal Murray (22) and Michael Porter Jr. (20).
• Denver has outscored Los Angeles by 42 in the second half this series.
• LeBron James and Anthony Davis combined for 59 points, and Austin Reaves added 22. The rest of the Lakers shot 33% (10 of 30), and, as a team, shot 19% (5 of 27) from beyond the arc.
• And, stop me if you’ve heard this one — no team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs.

The Nuggets have now beaten the Lakers 11 straight times (regular-season and postseason). Denver has more options offensively and has the firepower to overcome early deficits — it trailed by 10+ in six of those 11 straight wins. Jokic is the best player in the world. The Nuggets are just so much better than the Lakers, as was the case last year. Sam Quinn wonders why Los Angeles thought this year would be any different.

Earlier in the evening, Joel Embiid played with fire, somehow survived, and then dominated. Embiid scored 50 points, overcoming an ugly (and perhaps ejection-worthy) start to lead the 76ers to a 125-114 Game 3 win over the Knicks that cut Philadelphia’s series deficit to 2-1.

• Embiid had three controversial plays. He hit Isaiah Hartenstein below the belt trying to establish position, kicked Mitchell Robinson in the groin on an awkward follow-through and dragged Robinson down while on the ground as Robinson went up for a shot.
• The last one, Sam Quinn writes, was by far the most dangerous and resulted in a flagrant-1; Robinson later left the game with an ankle injury and didn’t return. Donte DiVincenzo called the play “dirty” and wasn’t alone in his displeasure.
• Knicks fans certainly won’t like how Embiid scored his 50 points either. He shot 21 free throws, making 19. The Knicks shot 19 free throws as a team. Still, he was magnificent all-around, going 13 for 19 from the floor and 5 of 7 from 3.
• Embiid joins Allen Iverson (three times) and Billy Cunningham as the only players in franchise history with a 50-point game. Making it all the more impressive, Embiid is playing not only on a balky knee but with Bell’s palsy affecting the left side of his face.

Simply put, Embiid nearly cost Philadelphia its season and then saved it, James Herbert writes.

Finally, the Magic got their first home playoff win since 2011, thrashing the Cavaliers, 121-83. After not leading at all in Games 1 or 2, Orlando led almost the entire way. Paolo Banchero had 31 points.

Here are our full takeaways.

🏈 2024 NFL Draft: Best players still available ahead of Round 2

Despite not making a pick in Round 1, the Bills were one of my biggest winners. Buffalo traded down twice, from 28th to 32nd and then 32nd to 33rd, adding a ton of draft capital — crucial for a team that lost a ton this offseason, especially at wide receiver. According to Josh Edwards’ best remaining players, Buffalo has plenty of options there and elsewhere to open tonight. Here’s Josh’s top five:

1. WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia
2. CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
3. DT Johnny Newton, Illinois
4. WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
5. CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

Chris has a second-round mock, and David Cobb has 10 underrated sleepers.

📺 What we’re watching this weekend

Friday

🏀 Game 3: Bucks at Pacers, 5:30 p.m. on ESPN
🏈 NFL Draft Rounds 2-3, 7 p.m. on ESPN/ABC/NFL Network
🏒 Game 3: Rangers at Capitals, 7 p.m. on TNT
🏒 Game 3: Canucks at Predators, 7:30 p.m. on TBS
🏀 Game 3: Clippers at Mavericks, 8 p.m. on ESPN
🏒 Game 3: Jets at Avalanche, 10 p.m. on TNT
🏀 Game 3: Timberwolves at Suns, 10:30 p.m. on ESPN
🏒 Game 3: Oilers at Kings, 10:30 p.m. on TBS

Saturday

🏈 NFL Draft Rounds 4-7, noon on ESPN/ABC/NFL Network
🏀 Game 4: Cavaliers at Magic, 1 p.m. on TNT
🏒 Game 4: Hurricanes at Islanders, 2 p.m. on TBS
🏀 Game 3: Thunder at Pelicans, 3:30 p.m. on TNT
⚾ Reds at Rangers or Cardinals at Mets, 4:05 p.m. on Fox
🏒 Game 4: Panthers at Lightning, 5 p.m. on TBS
🏀 Game 3: Celtics at Heat, 6 p.m. on TNT
🏒 Game 4: Bruins at Maple Leafs, 8 p.m. on TBS
🏀 Game 4: Nuggets at Celtics, 8:30 p.m. on ABC
⚾ Diamondbacks at Mariners, 9:40 p.m. on FS1
🏒 Game 4: Stars at Golden Knights, 10:30 p.m. on TBS

Sunday

🏀 Game 4: Knicks at 76ers, 1 p.m. on ABC
🏒 Game 4: Jets at Avalanche, 2:30 p.m. on TNT
🏀 Game 4: Clippers at Mavericks, 3:30 p.m. on ABC
⚾ Astros at Rockies, 4:05 p.m. on ESPN
🏒 Game 4: Canucks at Predators, 5 p.m. on TBS
🏀 Game 4: Bucks at 76ers, 7 p.m. on TNT
⚾ Cubs at Red Sox, 7 p.m. on ESPN
🏒 Game 4: Rangers at Capitals, 8 p.m. on TBS
🏀 Game 4: Timberwolves at Suns, 9:30 p.m. on TNT
🏒 Game 4: Oilers at Kings, 10:30 p.m. on TBS